GBP/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - primary bearish or ranging bullish?

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.24 11:04

Trading the News: U.S. Durable Goods Orders (based on dailyfx article)

A 2.3% decline in demand for U.S. Durable Goods accompanied by a weakening outlook for business investments may produce near-term headwinds for the greenback as it fuels speculation for a further delay in the Fed liftoff.

What’s Expected:

Why Is This Event Important:

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach at the October 28 interest rate decision as the central bank adopts a more cautious outlook for the region, and signs of a slower recovery may encourage Chair Janet Yellen to preserve the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) throughout 2015 in an effort to further insulate the real economy.

On the other hand, the ongoing expansion in building and service-based activity may spur greater demand for durable goods, and a positive data print may keep the central bank on course to raise the benchmark interest rate in 2015 as Chair Yellen remains confident in achieving the Fed’s dual mandate for full-employment and price stability.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bearish USD Trade: Orders Contract 2.3% or Greater in August

• Need to see green, five-minute candle following the release to consider a long trade on EURUSD.
• If market reaction favors a bearish dollar trade, buy EURUSD with two separate position.
• Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
• Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

• Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EURUSD trade.
• Implement same setup as the bearish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.

EURUSD Daily

• EUR/USD may face a larger rebound as it fails to retain the recent series of lower-highs and preserves the monthly-opening low (1.1086); need a break of the bullish RSI formation carried over from March to favor a resumption of the long-term downward trend.
• Interim Resistance: 1.1760 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1810 (38.2% retracement)
• Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0790 (50% expansion) to 1.0800 (23.6% expansion)