Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for US Dollar, AUDUSD, GBPUSD. USDJPY and GOLD
US Dollar - "This week, we will come across two particular indicators in a busy docketthat are important for shaping rate expectations. Monday’s PCE deflator is the Fed’s favored inflation measure. Friday’s July labor report will generate headlines with its NFP print, but the policy speculation will center on the wages component – the wellspring of inflation. If this data misses or beats, few will miss the implications."
GBPUSD - "GBP/USD may continue to face range-bound prices ahead of the BoE meeting, and the fresh developments coming out of the central bank may set the tone for August as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy. In turn, we are still waiting for a break & close above near-term resistance around 1.5630 (38.2% retracement) to 1.5650 (38.2% expansion) to favor a more bullish outlook for the sterling, but a cautious tone from the BoE may drag on the exchange rate and spur a test of support around 1.5330 (78.6% expansion) to 1.5350 (50% retracement)."
AUDUSD - "The onset of risk aversion triggered by the prospect of US tightening even as growth in the Eurozone and China remains sluggish, threatening the outlook for global performance at large, may bode doubly ill for the Australian unit."
USDJPY - "The US Dollar remains relatively strong as interest rate traders predict the Fed will raise rates as early as September, but the official focus on data leaves risks clearly to the downside for the Greenback. This dynamic leaves the Japanese Yen especially exposed as it has historically been one of the most interest rate-sensitive currencies. Watch for outsized USD/JPY reactions to Friday’s NFPs data to guide overall direction through the foreseeable future."
GOLD - "From a technical standpoint gold has continued to respect a critical support confluence noted last week at ~1070/73. The trade remains vulnerable for a rebound while above this region heading into August open initial resistance seen at the 2014 lows at 1130. The broader outlook for gold remains bearish while sub 1145/51 with a break of the lows targeting the 2010 low at 1044 backed by a key longer-term Fibonacci confluence lower down at 975/80. We’ll keep an eye on the August opening range for further guidance on our near-term directional bias with a breach of the recent consolidation range between below 1103 shifting the immediate focus higher."
