EURUSD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging in consolidation waiting for direction

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.30 14:10

Bank of America Merrill Lynch - preview for today's US 2Q GDP (based on efxnews article)

• "The first estimate of 2Q GDP is likely to show growth of 3.0%, which would be a bounce from the contraction of 0.2% in 1Q."
• "Based on the high frequency data, we look for modest growth of 2.8% for consumer spending, reflecting the strong start to retail sales in the quarter and healthy auto sales. We also look for particular strength in residential investment, with the sector adding 0.4pp to growth. Elsewhere, the trade deficit should narrow a bit after the dramatic widening in 1Q."
• "2Q inflation measures should be a bit stronger. We are looking for a 1.3% qoq saar rise in the GDP price index and a 1.7% qoq saar rise in the core PCE deflator. On an annual basis inflation remains muted, with the GDP price index likely rising just 0.7% yoy for 2Q while the core PCE inflation rate should be 1.2%."

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.31 09:37

Where To Sell EUR/USD (based on efxnews article)

• Credit Suisse: "EURUSD has been capped below the 50% retracement of the recent fall and the 55-day average at 1.1117/32, and reversed lower. Beneath 1.0925  can open up a retest of the more important price lows at 1.0819/09. Near-term resistance moves to 1.1022. Above 1.1080/85 is needed to retest 1.1117/32."
• Barclays: "The move below nearby support in the 1.0925 area encourages our bearish view towards the 1.0810 lows. A break below 1.0810 would signal lower towards our next targets near 1.0675 and then the 1.0460 year-to-date lows."
• UBS: "We think the market will be keen to sell any rallies. We recommend a short closer to 1.0990, with a stop above 1.1120/30."
• SocGen: "EUR/USD has formed a probable double top at 1.1450/1.1536. Weekly RSI is retracing after testing 50% graphical level which highlights 1.1450/1.1536 as key. The pair looks poised to head towards confirmation level of the pattern at 1.08/1.0780, a break below which will signal a revisit of 1.05/1.04 with intermittent support at 1.07."

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.31 15:04

• past data is 0.7%
• forecast data is 0.6%
• actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Employment Cost Index] = Change in the price businesses and the government pay for civilian labor. It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when businesses pay more for labor the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.

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"Compensation costs for civilian workers was little changed at 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending June 2015, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries (which make up about 70 percent of compensation costs) was also little changed at 0.2 percent, and benefits (which make up the remaining 30 percent of compensation) was little changed at 0.1 percent."

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EURUSD M5: 112 pips price movement by USD - Employment Cost Index news event: