Top 5 High-Impact Economic Events This Week (February 16–20, 2026)
Top 5 High-Impact Economic Events This Week (February 16–20, 2026)
Financial markets brace for a week of significant volatility as central bank decisions, inflation data, and key policy communications take center stage.
1. Eurozone CPI (m/m & y/y) – Tuesday, February 17, 07:00 UTC
Currency: EUR
Why it matters: Inflation remains the ECB's primary focus. February's CPI data (forecast: 0.1% m/m, 2.1% y/y) will directly influence expectations for the March policy meeting. A hotter-than-expected print could delay rate cuts and strengthen the euro; a softer reading may accelerate easing bets, triggering EUR volatility across FX, bonds, and equities.
2. RBNZ Interest Rate Decision & Monetary Policy Statement – Wednesday, February 18, 01:00 UTC
Currency: NZD
Why it matters: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand holds its first policy meeting of Q1 2026. With the cash rate at 2.25%, markets will scrutinize the accompanying statement and Rate Statement for guidance on the pace of easing. Any shift in tone—especially on inflation persistence or labor market tightness—could spark sharp moves in NZD pairs and Asia-Pacific risk sentiment.
3. FOMC Minutes – Wednesday, February 18, 19:00 UTC
Currency: USD
Why it matters: These minutes reveal the internal debate behind the Fed's January decision. Traders will parse for clues on the committee's confidence in disinflation, views on labor market resilience, and timing of potential rate cuts. Divergent opinions among officials often amplify volatility in U.S. Treasuries, the dollar index, and equity futures.
4. ECB President Lagarde Speech – Friday, February 20, 00:00 UTC
Currency: EUR
Why it matters: Lagarde's remarks carry exceptional weight as markets assess the ECB's path amid sticky services inflation. Her commentary on wage growth, fiscal policy risks, or forward guidance could override recent data—making this a standalone volatility catalyst for EUR/USD, European sovereign bonds, and banking stocks.
5. U.S. Core PCE Price Index (m/m & y/y) – Friday, February 20, 13:30 UTC
Currency: USD
Why it matters: As the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE (forecast: 0.2% m/m, 2.8% y/y) is the week's climax. This data directly shapes the terminal rate outlook. A surprise above 0.3% m/m could trigger a dollar rally and Treasury selloff; a soft print may fuel rate-cut speculation, lifting risk assets but pressuring the greenback.
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