EURUSD Next Week Outlook - 61.8% Fibo level at 1.0856 should be broken for bearish, otherwise ranging

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.25 11:38

Key FX Strategy & Themes - ANZ (based on efxnews article)

"OVERVIEW AND STRATEGY: The USD depreciated through June, though overall it remained relatively well supported. The Fed eased market fears once again by emphasising that any tightening path will be gradual, while at the same time firming expectations that the first hike would occur in 2015. However, this reprieve does not present an attractive opportunity to reload carry trades, and the distribution of outcomes remains disproportionately skewed to a stronger USD. In the interim, domestic fundamentals remain in focus and idiosyncratic events will continue to be the primary driver of currency performance."

"THEMES: The euro area is still in need of very loose financial conditions, and a soft EUR is a part of that mix. In this environment, further strength remains constrained, and risks remain to the downside. Conversely, in the UK, signs of a broadening of growth will continue to underpin expectations of policy normalisation and support the GBP. Thematically our view on the AUD and NZD remains unchanged. The outlook for the AUD is looking more balanced, while the NZD remains an underperformer story. In Asia, economic data continues to disappoint and further policy easing is likely forthcoming. Here our bias remains to buy USD/Asia on dips."

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.25 09:22

Greece Stand Off Enters Final Days, Seek More Productive Options Than Euro (based on dailyfx article)

• The ultimate resolution to Greece's financial impasse can generate major Euro swings - bullish or bearish
• However, in the negotiation phase, the Euro will struggle for clear direction and momentum
• There are more productive options arising in GBP and NZD pairs, while USD and JPY may soon join the fray

When Greece and its creditors choose either default or debt forgiveness, the response from the Euro can be dramatic. Trading potential on such a provocative fundamental development will be substantial and certainly something we plan for ahead of time. That said, in the messy period of negotiating preceding this clear outcome, the currency is going to be erratic and difficult trading. Patience is warranted, but that doesn't mean we have to sit staring with bated breath. There are developing technical and fundamental themes in other corners of the market.

We look at the big setups and the active movers in today's Trading Video.

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.26 08:38

Trading Video: Preparing for Euro and Dollar Moves (based on dailyfx article)

• Greece is on the top of all - not just Euro - traders' minds, and anticipation will disrupt trend
• The Dollar is similarly focused on upcoming conditions between next week's NFPs and holiday conditions
• Crosses further away from such prominent fundamental risks still offer better technical opportunity
  

Markets will soon face a reckoning after this extended period of quiet complacency. On the risk front, officials are running out of time and liquidity to find an acceptable compromise over Greece's strained financial health. After Thursday's failed talks, all parties will reconvene on Saturday and try to push through a solution before a IMF payment and the official expiration of the country's rescue program on Tuesday. For a monetary policy focus - the most productive fundamental theme over the past year - US rate expectations will be charged by June NFPs, but the lead in will be particularly interesting between anticipation and expected holiday trading conditions. Meanwhile, it is worthwhile looking outside of the Euro, Dollar and Yen (the most risk-sensitive) for less restrained opportunities. We look at the potential building up and playing out in today's Trading Video.

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.26 08:55

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group - 'We continue to advise selling rallies in EUR/USD' (based on efxnews article)

"A resolution to Greek debt negotiations may reduce downside risks, but a weak currency is needed to underpin the recovery...If anything, the risks to monetary policy are for additional QE as the current ECB forecasts are based on a full implementation of the existing program," ANZ argues.

"We therefore continue to see downside risks for the euro against the USD, especially as US growth is firming again and the FOMC seems closer to starting the interest rate normalisation process. We continue to advise selling rallies in EUR/USD," ANZ advises.