"You could be forgiven for thinking that the biggest driver of the EUR/USD rate is not Greek debt talks, but the pricing of the December 2016 Fed Funds futures contract. This closed on Friday at 1.02%, the lowest level since mid-May."
"Neither is high profile enough to change market thinking about Fed policy, which prices a 1% rise in rates over 18 months. All of which just suggests we will get a stronger dollar once a faster pace of fed rate hikes is priced in, but this needs a catalyst that today’s data won’t provide. In the meantime, we watch the combination of (super-low) Fed pricing and hope of a Greek deal boost risk sentiment and undermine the dollar for the start of the week."
