The past week was dominated by decisions from major central banks. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and confirmed its cautious approach toward future policy easing. The Bank of England also left rates unchanged while maintaining a hawkish tone. In the Eurozone, inflation continued to slow gradually. As a result, the US dollar remained strong against most major currencies, while the euro, gold and commodity-linked assets stayed under pressure. Our previous forecast therefore proved fully accurate.
💶 EUR/USD
EUR/USD ended the week at 1.1470, after falling to 1.1415 on June 19, its lowest level in several months. The market once again tested the lower boundary of the medium-term range at 1.1400-1.1850. The nearest resistance is located at 1.1500-1.1530, followed by 1.1590-1.1620 and 1.1670-1.1700. Support is located at 1.1390-1.1415, followed by 1.1300-1.1330 and 1.1200-1.1210. As long as the pair remains below 1.1500-1.1530, the scenario remains neutral-to-bearish. The strong support area around 1.1400 increases the probability of a technical rebound.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
After rising to 67,265 at the beginning of the week, Bitcoin came under pressure again and fell to 62,185 on June 19. On Saturday, June 20, BTC/USD is trading around 63,700. Investors continue to wait for new signals from US monetary policy and ETF capital flows. The nearest resistance is located at 64,255, followed by 67,265, 68,700-69,300 and the 70,000 area. Support is located at 62,000-62,200, followed by 60,680-61,100 and 59,000-60,000. In the event of a sharp move, a decline toward 56,000 cannot be ruled out. As long as BTC/USD remains below 67,265, the scenario remains neutral-to-bearish.
🛢 Brent Oil
Brent ended the week at 80.20 dollars per barrel, after falling to a low of 76.40. Since the beginning of May, oil has lost more than 30%, marking one of the sharpest declines in recent years. Pressure on the market comes from the reduction of the geopolitical premium. Despite ongoing tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran, investors are increasingly pricing in a stabilisation scenario. However, developments around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz remain the key risk factor for oil prices. The nearest resistance is located at 82.00-83.00, followed by 85.00-86.00 and 88.50-90.00. Support is located at 78.50, followed by 76.40, 75.00 and 72.00-73.00. As long as Brent remains below 85.00-86.00, the scenario remains neutral-to-bearish.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
After failing to establish itself above 4,350, gold turned lower and ended the week at 4,155 dollars per ounce. A stronger dollar and reduced expectations of near-term Federal Reserve easing weighed on the metal. The nearest resistance is located at 4,200-4,250, followed by 4,350, 4,450-4,500 and 4,580-4,600. Support is located at 4,100, followed by 4,000 and 3,900-4,020. As long as the price remains below 4,250-4,350, the scenario remains neutral-to-bearish.
📈 Key Events and Baseline Scenarios of the Week
Market attention will focus on business activity, inflation and the health of the US economy. On June 23, preliminary PMI data from the United States, the Eurozone and the United Kingdom will be released. On June 25, markets will receive the final Q1 US GDP estimate, durable goods orders, weekly jobless claims, and the PCE and Core PCE indices – the Federal Reserve’s key inflation indicators. On June 26, US goods trade balance figures and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be published.
Baseline scenarios: EUR/USD – neutral-to-bearish below 1.1500-1.1530. BTC/USD – neutral-to-bearish below 67,265. Brent – neutral-to-bearish below 85.00-86.00. XAU/USD – neutral-to-bearish below 4,250-4,350.
