Technical Analysis for US Dollar, S&P 500, Gold and Crude Oil - Stalls at 69.57 Monthly Resistance for Oil

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.03 06:59

Gold Prices Close Higher on Weaker Dollar (adapted from wsj article)

Gold prices edged higher Tuesday, boosted by a weaker dollar.

Gold for August delivery, the most actively traded contract, closed up 0.5% at $1,194.40 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The possibility of a deal between Greece and its creditors boosted the euro against the dollar Tuesday, with the single currency gaining 2.1% to $1.1161, its highest level in almost two weeks. Stronger-than-expected eurozone consumer price data for May helped the euro extend its gains. A softer dollar is good news for gold, which is priced in the U.S. currency and becomes more affordable for foreign buyers when the greenback weakens.

“The falling dollar has been the main mover for gold today,” said George Gero, a senior vice president with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures. “There is a good potential for a Greek deal this week, which would signify more euro strength and more upside for gold.”

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.03 14:43

• past data is -51.4B
• forecast data is -43.9B
• actual data is -40.9B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.

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"The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $40.9 billion in April, down $9.7 billion from $50.6 billion in March, revised. April exports were $189.9 billion, $1.9 billion more than March exports. April imports were $230.8 billion, $7.8 billion less than March imports."

"The April decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $9.3 billion to $60.7 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.4 billion to $19.8 billion."

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.04 07:29

Gold Sinks to Three-Week Low on Greece Hopes, Stock Gains (adapted from wsj article)

Gold prices fell to their lowest level in three weeks on Wednesday as optimism about a positive outcome to Greece’s financial problems and gains in stocks weighed on investor interest for havens like precious metals. 

“We are a few days, or I could even say a few hours, away from a resolution,” French President François Hollande said at a conference in Paris.

“Some people are just getting out of this market to avoid the volatility and paring back positions until they get a clearer understanding,” said Frank Lesh, a broker and futures analyst with FuturePath Trading in Chicago. “Just because Greece gets a deal now doesn’t mean that their problems are solved.”

“The stock market is still up and strong and siphoning money away from gold to stocks,” said George Gero, a senior vice president with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures.