EURUSD June-December 2015 Forecast: ranging bearish breakdown with 1.0461 key support level

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.11 07:41

EUR/USD Forecast May 11-15 (based on forexcrunch article)

EUR/USD moved up to new highs, but shed the gains in a volatile week. The upcoming week features yet another chapter in the Greek drama as well as important GDP data . Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

1. Eurogroup meetings on Greece: Monday. May 11th was a yet another deadline for Greece and its creditors to reach a deal on, but this seems unlikely at the moment. Low expectations mean that if a deal is reached it could be positive for the euro. There has been some optimism recently.
2. German WPI: Monday, 6:00. The Wholesale Price Index also feeds into the general inflation figures and impacts the final CPI. After a rise of 1% in March, a smaller 0.4% m/m gain is on the cards for April.
3. GDP data: Wednesday: France at 5:30, Germany at 6:00, Italy at 8:00 and the whole euro-zone at 9:00. We will now learn if growth has indeed picked up in Q1, as the weak euro may have contributed to exports. Starting with France, the second largest economy grew by only 0.1% in Q4 2014, continuing the path of hardly seeing any growth. We are now expecting +0.4% for Q1 2015. The zone’s locomotive, Germany enjoyed a very strong growth rate of 0.7% in Q4, and could lead growth once again by advancing 0.5% q/q. The zone’s third largest economy, Italy saw no growth after three consecutive quarters of contraction. Also here, we are now expecting positive growth of 0.2%. The euro-zone as a whole, enjoyed a better than expected growth rate of 0.3%, powered by Germany, but is still fragile. A wider advance, built on the three largest economies and Spain’s strong 0.9% growth rate (already reported earlier) is expected now: +0.5% Note that the German release has the biggest impact, but also the initial publication from France tends to move the dial.
4. German Final CPI: Wednesday, 6:00. The initial number for April came out at -0.1% m/m, better than expected. This will probably be confirmed now.
5. French Non-Farm Payrolls: Wednesday, 6:45. The second largest economy in the zone has seen no change to employment levels in Q4 and another month of stagnation is on the cards. The country is still struggling with unemployment, as jobless seekers remain at high levels. Note that at the same time, the country also releases CPI data, which rose 0.7% in March and is expected to rise 0.2% in April.
6. Industrial Production: Wednesday, 9:00. After Germany disappointed with its numbers, we can expect the euro-zone figures to almost reach a standstill in March after rising 1.1% in February. +0.1% is expected.
7. ECB Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 11:30. In the recent meeting, the European Central Bank left policy unchanged. Draghi showed determination in implementing QE despite the recent improvement. We will now see what the different members talked about in the meeting, and if there was pressure from some German members to exit the QE program, something that seems unlikely now.

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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, May: Bearish with Weekly Rally and Monthly Ranging with 1.0461 Key Support Level

Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.14 12:20

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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, May: Bearish with Weekly Rally and Monthly Ranging with 1.0461 Key Support Level

Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.20 04:55

This week's candle was opened in 1.1200 and W1 price is breaking next resistance levels for now: 1.1391

So, if someone used my suggestion and opened buy stop order at 1.1240 (see first post of this thread) - it should be +180 pips in profit for now (based on 'equity open trades').