EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, May: Bearish with Weekly Rally and Monthly Ranging with 1.0461 Key Support Level - page 3

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.08 07:14

EUR/USD falls slightly as U.S. jobs, UK election remain in focus (based on nasdaq article)

EUR/USD fell modestly on Thursday ahead of a critical U.S. jobs report, as worries related to cascading global bond prices somewhat eased.

The euro fell 0.0084 or 0.74% to 1.1266 against the dollar in U.S. afternoon trading, slightly above session-lows of 1.1238. EUR/USD reached a high of 1.1392 in the European morning session on a day of choppy trading.

Although the euro has fallen against the dollar in four of the last six sessions, it is still up more than 3.5% on its American counterpart over the last two weeks. On Wednesday, EUR/USD moved above 1.13 for the first time since late-February.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.08 07:15

Goldman Sachs sees upside risks in nonfarm payrolls despite soft ADP (based on forexlive article)

Goldman Sachs sees nonfarm payrolls matching the 230K consensus estimate, despite just 169K jobs in Wednesday's ADP employment report.

"While labor market indicators were mixed in April, the employment components of service sector surveys were strong and better weather conditions should provide a boost. In addition, we see some upside risk to our forecast from a calendar effect," they wrote.

The market is likely priced below the 230K consensus, somewhere closer to 200K, so a stronger reading would give the US dollar a lift.

"We expect the unemployment rate to decline by one-tenth to 5.4% and average hourly earnings to rise 0.2%," Goldman Sachs analysts wrote.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.11 07:41

EUR/USD Forecast May 11-15 (based on forexcrunch article)

EUR/USD moved up to new highs, but shed the gains in a volatile week. The upcoming week features yet another chapter in the Greek drama as well as important GDP data . Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

  1. Eurogroup meetings on Greece: Monday. May 11th was a yet another deadline for Greece and its creditors to reach a deal on, but this seems unlikely at the moment. Low expectations mean that if a deal is reached it could be positive for the euro. There has been some optimism recently.
  2. German WPI: Monday, 6:00. The Wholesale Price Index also feeds into the general inflation figures and impacts the final CPI. After a rise of 1% in March, a smaller 0.4% m/m gain is on the cards for April.
  3. GDP data: Wednesday: France at 5:30, Germany at 6:00, Italy at 8:00 and the whole euro-zone at 9:00. We will now learn if growth has indeed picked up in Q1, as the weak euro may have contributed to exports. Starting with France, the second largest economy grew by only 0.1% in Q4 2014, continuing the path of hardly seeing any growth. We are now expecting +0.4% for Q1 2015. The zone’s locomotive, Germany enjoyed a very strong growth rate of 0.7% in Q4, and could lead growth once again by advancing 0.5% q/q. The zone’s third largest economy, Italy saw no growth after three consecutive quarters of contraction. Also here, we are now expecting positive growth of 0.2%. The euro-zone as a whole, enjoyed a better than expected growth rate of 0.3%, powered by Germany, but is still fragile. A wider advance, built on the three largest economies and Spain’s strong 0.9% growth rate (already reported earlier) is expected now: +0.5% Note that the German release has the biggest impact, but also the initial publication from France tends to move the dial.
  4. German Final CPI: Wednesday, 6:00. The initial number for April came out at -0.1% m/m, better than expected. This will probably be confirmed now.
  5. French Non-Farm Payrolls: Wednesday, 6:45. The second largest economy in the zone has seen no change to employment levels in Q4 and another month of stagnation is on the cards. The country is still struggling with unemployment, as jobless seekers remain at high levels. Note that at the same time, the country also releases CPI data, which rose 0.7% in March and is expected to rise 0.2% in April.
  6. Industrial Production: Wednesday, 9:00. After Germany disappointed with its numbers, we can expect the euro-zone figures to almost reach a standstill in March after rising 1.1% in February. +0.1% is expected.
  7. ECB Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 11:30. In the recent meeting, the European Central Bank left policy unchanged. Draghi showed determination in implementing QE despite the recent improvement. We will now see what the different members talked about in the meeting, and if there was pressure from some German members to exit the QE program, something that seems unlikely now.

 

Interesting thread

 

 

Keep it up! 

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.13 17:51

EURUSD Resistance Breaks on News (based on dailyfx article)

  • The EURUSD breaks resistance on news
  • Today’s R4 breakout pivot is located at 1.1292
  • A move to R3 would suggest a change in market conditions


The EURUSD is showing signs of an early morning breakout as prices move above today’s R4 pivot at 1.1291. The initial price jump for the pair came on worse than expected Advanced Retail Sales data, which was released at 0.0% relative to an expected .02%. As this morning’s move matures, traders will continue to watch the R4 pivot, which will now act as a value of support in the event of a further bullish advance for the EURUSD.

Alternatively, a move back inside of today’s pivot range would suggest a reversal of the EURUSD’s current price momentum.Wednesday’s pricing range begins at the R3 pivot found at a price of 1.1252. A move back inside of the R3 pivot, would open the possibility of a price reversal on the day back towards values of support. This would include the S3 support pivot, which is found at the bottom of today’s 80 pip range at a price of 1.1172. A further decline below the S4 pivot at 1.1132 would open the market to a bearish breakout and the potential for a broader market reversal.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.14 02:07

EURUSD wanders down into the closing hour (based on forexlive article)

The EURUSD has wandered lower away from the resistance from above near the 1.1391 level. This is the area where buyers should return.  Of course the end of the day may lead to more consolidation type trading, but intraday traders who sold above, may look to the area to lighten up and call it a day.



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.14 09:44

EUR/USD: Too Early To Re-Engage - Credit Suisse (based on efxnews article)


CS reviews the recent data at hand and comes to the following conclusions:

  • The current USD consolidation is well in line with the history of corrections within USD bull markets.
  • Despite the sell-off in nominal yields, real rate differentials have widened against the EUR.
  • The breakdown of the move in nominal EUR rates in real rates and inflation swaps highlights the risk of a potential premature tightening in financial conditions in Europe.


"Indeed, while we still hold a 3m 1.05 target for EURUSD (based partly on our non-consensus house view that the Fed will hike in September), we are not adding to existing short EUR positions (now minimal in delta terms) in our model portfolio until we have a clearer view on how these factors will play out. Effectively, we have stood on the sidelines on EURUSD since 8 April – it is still too early to re-engage, in our view".


 

If W1 price will break 1.0461 support level on close W1 bar so the primary bearish will be continuing

If W1 price will break 1.1240 resistance level so we may see the local uptrend as the secondary market rally to be started
If not so the price will be ranging between 1.0461 and 1.1240 levels with primary bearish

  • Recommendation for long: watch close W1 price to break 1.1240 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch W1 price to break 1.0461 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

This week's candle was opened in 1.1200 and W1 price is breaking next resistance levels for now: 1.1391


So, if someone used my suggestion and opened buy stop order at 1.1240 (see first post of this thread) - it should be +180 pips in profit for now (based on 'equity open trades').

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.16 08:03

EUR/USD forecast for the week of May 18, 2015, Technical Analysis (based on fxempire article)

The EUR/USD pair broke higher during the course of the week, clearing the top of the shooting star from the previous week. Because of this, we feel that the market is going to test the 1.15 level, and once we get above there the complete trend has changed. We believe that’s getting ready to happen and we are bullish of the Euro in general, so we are buying pullbacks. Quite frankly, we think that this is a move that is telegraphing itself so obviously that almost everybody in the world is getting ready to start buying.



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.19 11:43

Goldman Sachs technical analysis says EUR/USD looking constructive: oscillators, Elliot Wave (based on forexlive article)

"EUR/USD is looking increasingly stable/constructive as weekly and monthly oscillators are crossing positively from the bottom of their multi-year range."


"The low (which reached 1.0485) came close enough to satisfying a very big ABC that started at the Jul. '08 high. The month of April formed a bullish outside/engulfing pattern. The month of May has already made a new high. All of this suggests that there is a strong likelihood that the market will remain stable/constructive in the near-to-medium term time horizon."


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