Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.20 01:56
Credit Agricole: Stay Short EUR/USD For 1.08 (based on efxnews article)
"The USD kicked off the week on a strong note, rising against all
major currencies. The EUR failed to hold gains near the cycle high of
1.15, adding to our conviction that the single currency could move lower
"We think technical factors have played an important role in the
squeeze in European yields, highlighting that rate spreads should shift
back in the USD’s favour. While the US economy has lost some
momentum at the start of 2015, we still look for the economy to grow
above trend for some time. This should help absorb excess slack, pushing
the labour market closer to NAIRU by yearend. By the same token, it
would only take monthly employment gains of 150k to get the unemployment
rate to 5.0% by yearend."
This week's candle was opened in 1.1200 and W1 price is breaking next resistance levels for now: 1.1391
So, if someone used my suggestion and opened buy stop order at 1.1240 (see first post of this thread) - it should be +180 pips in profit for now (based on 'equity open trades').
This week's candle was opened in 1.1448 after the price broke 1.1391 resistance in the last week. Next resistance level is 1.1466
W1 price is going to be ranging between 1.1448 resistance and 1.0520 support levels.
If we look at Brainwashing system setup so it is not confirmed uptrend was started on ranging:
If wee use PriceChannel Parabolic system so we can get same information: market rally may be started in ranging way:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.20 08:53
I am not exactly sure but I think that this price movement (as 64 pips for now) is based on few news events:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.22 09:26
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
[EUR - German GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
EURUSD, M5, 2015.05.22
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
EURUSD M5: 24 pips price movement by EUR - German GDP news event
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.22 10:37
Fading Global Growth View Doesn’t Faze Equities, Yen Crosses or EURUSD (based on dailyfx article)
"Investors should be wary and opportunistic speculators on alert. We
revisit the risk-reward evaluation of the global capital markets and
sentiment in today's Strategy Video."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.22 15:04
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation
is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the
central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation
"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index declined 0.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in April and led to the slight increase in the seasonally adjusted all items index. The index for shelter rose, as did the indexes for medical care, household furnishings and operations, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles. In contrast, the indexes for apparel and airline fares declined in April."
EURUSD M5: 140 pips price movement by USD - Consumer Price Index news event
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.23 10:55
Holiday Conditions and Record Equities Remind of Bigger Liquidity Risks (based on dailyfx article)
If capital markets correct under risk aversion - inevitable over a long enough period - will the retreat be orderly or chaotic? There is usually at least a little panic in a bearish phase after a long build up, but conditions behind the current six-year bull trend suggest there may be more acute trouble when speculative appetites cool. Liquidity risks may have been fostered by the aggressive risk-taking and incredible policy intervention through these past years. We've seen how important liquidity is in the post-Lehman collapse and SNB's withdrawal of its exchange rate floor. But, what happens when the traditional outlets for safety are distorted? We consider the risks - and perhaps some opportunities - of liquidity issues in the unavoidable, next market bear wave in this weekend Strategy Video.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.23 12:35
Forex Weekly Outlook May 25-29 (based on forexcrunch article)
The US dollar made a comeback and the greenback was a big loser in a
week that saw trends change. And now, US Durable Goods Orders, Consumer
Confidence as well as UK, Canadian and US GDP data stand out. These are
the highlight events in Forex calendar. Here is an outlook on the main
market-movers for this week.
The Federal Reserve released minutes from its April 28-29 policy
meeting, revealing the planned rate hike will not take place in June.
Despite growing confidence in the US economic recovery, the recent data
suggest a temporary slowdown. Weaker consumer spending, slow growth and
employment data led policy makers to postpone their decision on raising
rates. Fed officials were also disappointed that falling oil prices did
not spur growth as anticipated and that the recent dollar softness muted
inflation. The Fed has reiterated it will not raise rates until it is
“reasonably confident” that prices are moving toward its 2% target. Will
the US economy rebound from its recent soft patch? In the euro-zone,
talk about front-loading QE hit the euro in particular. The common
currency reversed its previous gains. In the UK, inflation dipped below
0% and in Japan GDP came out better than expected.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.23 12:56
EUR/USD forecast for the week of May 25, 2015, Technical Analysis (based on fxempire article)
The EUR/USD pair broke down during the course of the week, testing the
1.10 level for support. That’s basically where we close for the week,
and this is an area that we should see support at. However, we are
closing at the very bottom of the range, and that of course is a very
bearish sign. This is a simple set up for us: we believe that if we get a
daily close below the 1.10 handle, that the market should continue down
to roughly 1.05 or so. On the other hand, if we get a supportive daily
candle near the 1.10 level, we believe that the market will then bounce
towards the 1.15 handle. With that being said, daily charts will
probably be where you need to look for setups.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.05.24 05:39
A Fundamental Push for Key EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY Levels? (based on dailyfx article)