USDJPY Technical Analysis 2015, 25.01 - 01.02: Bearish Ranging with possible Breakdown

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newdigital, 2015.01.24 13:51

Forex Weekly Outlook January 26-30 (based on forexcrunch article)

Greek Parliamentary Election; German Ifo Business Climate; UK GDP data; US Durable Goods Orders; US CB Consumer Confidence; US housing data; Rate decision in the US and in New Zealand; US Unemployment Claims; GDP data in Canada and the US. These are the most important economic releases for this week. Follow along as we explore these Forex market movers.

Last week’s central event was Draghi’s announcement of an extensive bond-buying program which will insert hundreds of billions in new money into the sluggish euro zone economy. The European Central Bank said it would buy sovereign debt from March till September 2016. Germany opposed this move, saying it will aid countries in debt to loosen economic reforms. The ECB plans to add more than 1 trillion euros by September 2016, to boost the Euro-area economy and fight deflation. However, since only 20% of purchases would be the responsibility of the ECB, critics warn that in case a euro zone government defaults, it would fall on national central banks, getting weak countries deeper in debt. Draghi said the QE could create the basis for growth, but the main responsibility lays on governments to implement structural reforms to sustain growth. Will this move help revive the Eurozone economy?

1. Eurozone Greek Parliamentary Election: Sunday. The national elections this week will determine whether Prime Minister Antonis Samaras will maintain his position or be defeated by Alexis Tsipras from Syriza party. Samaras said he can reach an agreement with Greece’s creditors by the end of February, while Tsipras said he can get an agreement by this summer keeping Greece within the euro area. Greece will not receive the next bailout money of 7.2 billion euros unless a review of the country’s progress in meeting the terms of its bailout is completed by Feb. 28.
2. Eurozone German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 9:00. German business confidence increased 0.8 points in December, reaching 105.5, broadly within market expectations. Falling oil prices and the weaker euro boosted German economy. Economic data showed improvements in the manufacturing and wholesaling sectors despite downturn trend in sales to Russia and sluggish reforms in France and Italy. Business sentiment is expected to reach 106.7 this time.
3. UK GDP data: Tuesday, 9:30. U.K. economic growth weakened in the third quarter, amid sluggish economic activity in the euro-area. Gross domestic product increased 0.7% in the three months through September, following 0.9% rise in the second quarter. The reading was in line with market forecast. On an annualized basis, the U.K. economy expanded 2.8% in the third quarter. Worrying signs of renewed stagnation in the euro zone may have a negative effect on UK’s. UK growth is predicted to be 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2014.
4. US Durable Goods Orders: Tuesday, 13:30. Durables orders plunged 0.7% in November after gaining 0.3% in October, while analysts expected a 3.0% jump. Likewise, core orders dropped 0.4% in November after contracting 1.0% in the prior month. Analysts predicted a 1.2% rise. Transportation declined 1.2% a 3.3% jump in October. The rise in autos and nondefense aircraft was overshadowed by a sharp drop in defense aircraft orders. Both Durable orders and Core orders are expected to gain 0.6%.
5. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 15:00. American consumers were more positive in December amid strong economic data releases. Consumer sentiment climbed to 92.6 in December from a revised 91 in the previous month. 17.1% of responders noted a rise in job availability from 16.2% in November. 19.6% claimed business conditions were worse compared to 21.8 in November. The rise in confidence goes hand in hand with GDP growth and the constant improvement in the job market. A further increase to 95.7 is expected now.
6. US New Home Sales: Tuesday, 15:00. Sales of new U.S. homes contracted 1.6% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 438,000 units, indicating the housing sector still hasn’t benefited from the recent improvements in the job market. The reading was worse than the 461,000 rate forecasted by analysts and lower than October’s downwardly revised rate of 445,000. New-home sales remain far below the annual rate of 700,000 seen during the 1990s, as many Americans lack solid credit records to enable obtaining mortgages. Sales of new U.S. homes is expected to reach 452,000 in December.
7. US rate decision: Wednesday, 19:00. The Federal Reserve policy makers have repeatedly announced their intentions to raise rates. However the sharp plunge in consumer prices during December may detain such a move. Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, claimed that the sharp drop in oil prices was positive for the US economy boosting household spending, but other Fed policy makers prefer to see stronger inflation before voting to raise rates. The Fed’s focus is on core inflation to help assess underlying price pressures in the economy. Fed official said recently that mid-year would be an appropriate time to consider a rate rise. No change in rates is expected.
8. NZ rate decision: Wednesday, 20:00. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has maintained its Official Cash Rate at 3.5% in December in line with market forecast. The central bank estimates output will grow above capacity and inflation will reach the 2% target by the end of the forecast period, which will advance a 40 basis points rate hike by early 2017. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler repeated his warnings about the overrated New Zealand dollar but noted that global financial market volatility had taken some pressure off the currency.
9. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits was higher than expected last week, indicating the holiday volatility sill continues. Jobless claims declined by 10,000 to 307,000, while expected to reach 301,000. Layoffs of holiday staffing make it difficult to assess the true state of the weekly jobs data. However, except for these temporary layoffs the US job market remains resilient at the beginning of 2015. The number of jobless claims is expected to reach 301,000 this week.
10. Canadian GDP: Friday, 13:30. Canada’s economy expanded more than expected in October rising 0.3% following a 0.4% gain in the previous month. Analysts expected a small increase of 0.1%. However weak oil prices are forecasted to weaken growth in 2015 by contracting exports and investment. The BOC projects a yearly growth of 2.2% in 2015 from 2.5% growth in 2014. However exports to the US are expected to increase as the US economy strengthens. Canadian growth is expected to contract 0.1%.
11. US GDP data: Friday, 13:30. The U.S. economy expanded 3.5% in the third quarter, indicating the US economy continues to improve and has no need for further QE. The GDP release was stronger than the 3.1% growth rate expected by analysts. Business investment and consumer spending dropped slightly from the second quarter, however, trade deficit contracted. Growth in four of the past five quarters reached 3.5% or above suggesting self- sustaining growth. Us economic growth in the fourth quarter is expected to be 3.1%.

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newdigital, 2015.01.24 14:08

USDJPY Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)

Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Neutral

• ECB Move Drives EURUSD to 11-Year Low, EURJPY On the Edge
• USD/JPY 1 Month into Consolidation; Could be a Triangle

The fundamental developments due out next week may undermine the bullish forecasts surrounding USD/JPY should the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) scale back its hawkish tone for monetary policy.

Despite growing expectations for a Fed rate hike in mid-2015, the rotation within the voting committee may spur a material shift in the forward-guidance for monetary policy, and the central bank may sound increasingly cautious this time around amid the fresh batch of monetary support from the Swiss National Bank, European Central Bank and Bank of Canada. Indeed, the Fed may not way to get too far ahead of its major counterparts as it struggles to achieve the 2% target for inflation, and Chair Janet Yellen may show a greater willingness to further delay the normalization cycle especially as the advance 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report is expected to show the economy growing an annualized 3.2% versus the 5.0% expansion during the three-months through September.

At the same time, Japan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may also fail to encourage a bullish outlook for USD/JPY as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy, and the pair remains at risk for a larger correction over the near-term as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remains confident in achieve the 2% inflation target over the policy horizon. In turn, USD/JPY may continue to carve a sting of lower-highs going into February should the data prints drag on Fed interest rate expectations.

With USD/JPY struggling to push back above the 119.00 handle, the pair faces a risk for move back towards near-term support around the 117.00 handle, and the dollar-yen may make a more meaningful run at the January low (115.84) should the bullish sentiment surrounding the greenback fizzle.

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newdigital, 2015.01.24 17:48

Nikkei forecast for the week of January 26, 2015, Technical Analysis

The Nikkei as you can see rose during the course of the week, using the ¥17,000 level as a bit of a springboard. It appears that we continue to consolidate, and therefore we anticipate that the Nikkei will rise to the ¥18,000 level next. Once we break above there, we feel that the Nikkei will then go to the ¥20,000 level, but it will of course take some time. Ultimately, we believe the pullbacks are buying opportunities as the Bank of Japan continues its ultra-loose monetary policy. With that, we are buyers only.

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newdigital, 2015.01.24 18:09

USD/JPY forecast for the week of January 26, 2015, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair initially broke higher during the course of the week, but turned back around at the 119 level to form a bit of a shooting star. Ultimately though, this is a market that is very much in an uptrend, and should continue to go higher. We believe that the 115 level is the “floor” in this market, and as a result we look at pullbacks as potential buying opportunities. We have no interest whatsoever in selling this market, and do believe that eventually we break back above the 122 level and grind our way up to the 125 handle.

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newdigital, 2015.01.25 10:38

Weekly Forex Forecast (based on dailyforex article)

EURUSD
The EUR/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but as you can see sliced below the 1.15 level. The market of course got a bit of a surprise from the European Central Bank and its massive expansion of quantitative easing. Because of this, it now looks as if the EUR/USD pair is going to head to the 1.10 level, which is the next major support level. That area could be a significant bounce waiting to happen, but in the meantime I believe that the market will continue to sell off every time it rallies. I look to short-term charts, and I believe that the 1.15 level above is a massive resistance barrier.

USDCAD

The USD/CAD pair broke much higher during the course of this past week, as the Bank of Canada had a surprise interest-rate cut. With that, the market shot straight up and we are now well above the 1.20 resistance barrier. In fact, we are getting very close to the 1.25 resistance level, which should cause a little bit of a pullback. If we get that pullback, we are looking for supportive candles in order to get involved as the uptrend is most certainly still in effect.

USDJPY

The USD/JPY pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but as you can see had turned around and ended up forming a shooting star. That being the case, the shooting star suggests that the market is going to go down to the 115 level possibly, but at that point in time I would anticipate seeing quite a bit of support. We could get a bounce from there, and I would be willing to buy that bounce. I have no interest in selling this market, as the uptrend is so strong. It’s probably only a matter of time before we break out above the 122 level, which should send this market looking for the 125 handle.

AUDUSD

The AUD/USD pair broke down during the course of the week, and most importantly cleared the 0.80 handle. With that being the case, the market looks as if it’s ready to continue going lower, and short-term charts will more than likely be the way that I continue to sell this market. This market is not reacting positively to the gold markets rising, and that tells me just how soft the Australian dollar truly is. I believe that the 0.75 handle will be targeted.

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newdigital, 2015.01.25 13:21

Forex - Weekly outlook: January 26 - 30

The euro fell to fresh 11-year lows against the dollar on Friday and hit a seven year trough against the pound, a day after the European Central Bank launched a large scale quantitative easing program to combat slowing growth and inflation in the euro area.

EUR/USD hit lows of 1.1118, the weakest since early September 2003 and was at 1.1203 late Friday, off 1.39% for the day. The euro ended the week down more than 3% against the dollar and the pair has lost almost 7.5% so far this year.

The drop in the single currency came after ECB President Mario Draghi unveiled a €1.2 trillion asset purchase program on Thursday. The central bank will purchase €60 billion in assets per month, starting in March and continuing until late 2016.

Draghi said the program would help return inflation back to the bank’s 2% target. Expectations had been building ahead of the ECB meeting after official figures showed that the annual rate of inflation in the euro area fell into negative territory in December, dropping 0.2%.

Draghi acknowledged the action the ECB took last year was “insufficient” to ward off the threat of deflation in the region.

EUR/GBP hit lows of 0.7428 on Friday, the lowest since February 2008 and was at 0.7471 in late trade, ending the day down 1.31% and bringing the week’s losses to 2.15%.

EUR/JPY hit a 16-month low of 130.95 on Friday and settled at 132.00, down 1.98%. The pair ended the week down 2.91%.

The euro was also under pressure amid uncertainty over the outcome of Greek elections, due to be held on Sunday, with anti-bailout party Syriza leading in the polls.

The dollar remained broadly stronger, boosted by the diverging monetary policy stance between the Federal Reserve and central banks in Europe and Japan.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose to more than 11-year highs of 95.77 on Friday and was last up 0.69% at 95.32.

The dollar slid lower against the safe haven yen, with USD/JPY down 0.61% to 117.78 in late trade, amid weakness in U.S. equities following lackluster corporate earnings results.

The Bank of Japan held off on expanding its monetary easing scheme on Wednesday and instead expanded a loan scheme aimed at boosting lending.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s preliminary data on fourth quarter growth, while the latest euro zone inflation data is also due out on Friday. Wednesday’s Federal Reserve monetary policy statement will be closely watched, while New Zealand’s central bank is also to hold a policy meeting.

Monday, January 26

• The Bank of Japan is to publish the minutes of its latest policy meeting, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.
• Japan is also to publish data on the trade balance.
• In Germany, the Ifo research group is to publish its report on business climate.
• The U.K. is to release private sector data on mortgage approvals.

Tuesday, January 27

• New Zealand is to publish private sector data on business confidence.
• The U.K. is to publish preliminary data on gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading measure of the economy’s health.
• The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, as well as private sector reports on consumer confidence and new home sales.

Wednesday, January 28

• Australia is to produce data on consumer inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
• In the euro zone, the Gfk Institute is to report on German consumer climate.
• The Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.
• Later in the day, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement. The country is also to release data on the trade balance.

Thursday, January 29

• Japan is to publish data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
• Australia is to publish a report on import prices.
• The U.K. is to publish private sector reports on house price inflation and retail sales.
• In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation and a report on the change in the number of people unemployed.
• Later Thursday, the U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as private sector data on pending home sales.

Friday, January 30

• Japan is to release a string of data, including reports on household spending and inflation and preliminary data on industrial production.
• Australia is to publish data on producer price inflation.
• The euro zone is to release preliminary data on inflation as well as a report on the unemployment rate. Germany is to report on retail sales, while Spain is to release preliminary data on GDP growth and inflation.
• Switzerland is to publish its KOF economic barometer.
• The U.K. is to release data on net lending.
• Canada is to publish its monthly GDP report.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on fourth quarter growth as well as reports on business activity in the Chicago region and revised data on consumer sentiment.

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newdigital, 2015.01.25 13:23

USD/JPY weekly outlook: January 26 - 30

The dollar slid lower against the safe-haven yen on Friday as weakness in U.S. equities underpinned demand for the Japanese currency, while the broadly weaker euro fell to 16-month lows against the yen.

USD/JPY was down 0.61% to 117.78 in late trade, not far from Wednesday’s lows of 117.17.

U.S. stocks fell following soft corporate earnings, which sparked concerns over the potential impact of the stronger dollar.

EUR/JPY hit lows of 130.95, the weakest since September 2013, before pulling back to 132.00, in late trade, off 1.98%. The pair ended the week with losses of 2.91%.

The drop in the single currency came after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi unveiled a €1.2 trillion asset purchase program on Thursday. The central bank will purchase €60 billion in assets per month, starting in March and continuing until late 2016.

Draghi said the program would help return inflation back to the bank’s 2% target. Expectations had been building ahead of the ECB meeting after official figures showed that the annual rate of inflation in the euro area fell into negative territory in December, dropping 0.2%.

The Bank of Japan held off from announcing fresh easing measures earlier in the week, despite cutting its inflation forecast for the year from April 2015, a move that reinforced expectations for further stimulus.

Speaking Friday, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said it could examine fresh options if further stimulus was needed.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s preliminary data on U.S. fourth quarter growth, while the latest euro zone inflation data is also due out on Friday. Wednesday’s Federal Reserve monetary policy statement will be closely watched.

Monday, January 26

• The BoJ is to publish the minutes of its latest policy meeting, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.
• Japan is also to publish data on the trade balance.

Tuesday, January 27

• The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, as well as private sector reports on consumer confidence and new home sales.

Wednesday, January 28

• The Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

Thursday, January 29

• Japan is to publish data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
• Later Thursday, the U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as private sector data on pending home sales.

Friday, January 30

• Japan is to release a string of data, including reports on household spending and inflation and preliminary data on industrial production.
• The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on fourth quarter growth as well as reports on business activity in the Chicago region and revised data on consumer sentiment.

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newdigital, 2015.01.26 13:43

USD/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis

The greenback found good support at 115.85 and has rebounded, retaining our view that further consolidation within 115.57-121.85 range would be seen with initial mild upside bias for another bounce to 119.00 and possibly towards 119.96-00. Having said that, a break of resistance at 120.83 is needed to signal correction from 121.85 has ended bring retest of this level, above there would signal medium term upmove has resumed for gain to 122.50-60, however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 123.20-25 (2 times extension of 101.07-110.09 measuring from 105.20) and reckon 124.10-15 (50% projection of 105.20-118.98 measuring from 117.24) would hold, price should falter well below psychological resistance at 125.00.

Our preferred count is that, triangle wave IV (with circle) ended at 101.45 and the circle wave V brought dollar down to the record low of 75.31 in 2011 and the subsequent rebound signal major correction has commenced with A leg ended at 84.19, followed by wave B at 77.14 and impulsive wave C is now unfolding for gain towards 125.00 level.

Under this count, this wave C is unfolding as impulsive waves with (1) (2), 1 2 ended at 80.67, 79.07, 82.84 and 81.69 respectively, hence the extended wave 3 has ended at 103.74 and wave 4 correction of recent upmove should bring weakness to 92.57, then towards 90.88 but psychological support at 90.00 should limit downside and bring another rally later in wave 5, indicated target at 118.00 had been met and gain to 122.00 cannot be ruled out but reckon price would falter below 125.00.

On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to 116.50 and bring another rebound later. Only a break of said support at 115.57 would dampen our bullishness and risk retracement of recent upmove to 113.50-55 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 105.20-121.85), however, downside should be limited to 112.90-00 and reckon 111.50-60 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would contain weakness and price should stay well above previous resistance at 110.09, bring another rally later.

Recommendation: Hold long entered at 116.50 for 119.50 with stop below 115.50.

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newdigital, 2015.01.27 05:58

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Quiet Consolidation Continues (based on dailyfx article)

Resistance	Support
119.48	117.64
120.82	115.48
121.91	113.51

The US Dollar is consolidating gains against the Japanese Yen having advanced as expected after forming a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern. Near-term resistance is at 119.48, the 23.6%Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the December 23 high at 120.82. Alternatively, a reversal below the 117.64-91 area marked by a horizontal pivot and the 23.6% Fib retracement opens the door for a test of the 38.2% threshold at 115.48.

Positioning is inconclusive at this point, with prices offering no clear-cut and actionable signal to initiate a long or short trade. We will continue to remain on the sidelines for the time being, waiting for a compelling opportunity to present itself.

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newdigital, 2015.01.27 10:40

Another Big Week Points to Major Currency Moves - How Might we Trade? (based on dailyfx article)

• US Dollar at elevated risk of volatility ahead of critical US Federal Reserve decision
• Forex volatility prices continue to trade near multi-year highs amid central bank activity

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newdigital, 2015.01.27 17:12

Forex technical trading: USDJPY a little more bullish but still within the range parameters (based on forexlive article)

The USDJPY remains stuck in a range – above and below trend line resistance – with the 100 and 200 hour MAs in between (blue and green lines) There have been a couple weak attempts to push outside the boundaries- once on the topside on Friday and today on the downside in the first few hours of trading. Each failed.  Currently, the pair has been able to extend above the 100 hour MA which gives it a little more bullish bias (100 hour MA comes in at 118.05 level – blue line). The topside trend line is currently trading at 118.58.

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newdigital, 2015.01.28 06:09

USDJPY Japan Economy will Collapse (adapted from livetradingnews article)

The shortfall of 12.78tn, Japan’s fourth-consecutive annual deficit, was 11.4% wider than 2013 and was the worst since records began in 1979, according to the finance ministry. Fuel costs have weighed heavily on Japan as the resource-poor country struggles to plug a huge energy gap after the 2011 atomic crisis forced the shutdown of nuclear reactors that once supplied more than a quarter of its power. That problem has been exacerbated by a sharp fall in the yen, which hiked the cost of energy imports purchased in foreign currencies.

In December alone, however, Japan’s trade deficit almost halved over the previous year to 660.7bn, largely thanks to falling oil prices.

The trade balance last month was also helped by a better-than-expected 12.9% jump in exports.

Japan’s trade deficit “is set to narrow further as lower energy prices are still not fully reflected in import costs”, Capital Economics said in note after the figures were published.

“The key development for the trade balance in coming months… remains the plunge in the price of crude oil since last summer. So far, this is only partly reflected in the cost of imported petroleum.

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newdigital, 2015.01.28 11:38

USDJPY Stuck in a Triangle (based on dailyfx article)

• Short term triangle keeps the larger triangle pattern in play
• An immediate move below 117.28 negates the short term triangle
  
• Look for resistance 119-120 to end wave D of a bullish triangle

The USDJPY has been stuck in a sideways range since December and appears to be carving out a larger degree 4th wave triangle. That means that each of the 5 sub-waves of the triangle should shape up as a zig-zag, triangle, or combination between them.

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newdigital, 2015.01.28 17:16

US Dollar May Fall as FOMC Fails to Fuel Interest Rate Hike Bets (based on dailyfx article)

• US Dollar May Fall as Status-Quo FOMC Fails to Fuel Rate Hike Outlook
• Aussie Dollar Gains as CPI Data Undermines RBA Interest Rate Cut Bets

A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see traders looking ahead to the US session for direction cues, with the spotlight pointing firmly to the outcome of the FOMC monetary policy meeting. Janet Yellen and company introduced a much-discussed change to the language of the policy statement at December’s sit-down, swapping out a pledge to hold rates low for a “considerable time” after the end of QE3 and replacing it with another promising to be “patient” before tightening. It seems unlikely that the cautiously slow-moving US central bank will opt to tinker with policy again so soon after making an adjustment, meaning today’s announcement will probably stick closely to the status quo.

The substance of the FOMC outcome and its interpretation by the financial markets need not align however. The markets seem primed for a hawkish result, if only because the US Dollar is hovering near six-year highs while speculative net-long positioning in the benchmark unit is at the highest since at least 1993. An outcome that sees the Fed in wait-and-see mode and fails to meaningfully advance the case for tightening may have a hard time sustaining such levels. In fact, it may serve to remind investors that the central bank has signaled no rate hikes will occur through April.

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newdigital, 2015.01.28 20:30

2015-01-28 19:00 GMT (or 21:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

• past data is 0.25%
• forecast data is 0.25%
• actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.

==========

"To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. The Committee also reaffirmed its expectation that the current exceptionally low target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6-1/2 percent, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent."

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newdigital, 2015.01.29 06:11

EURUSD takes a look below the 100 hour MA. USDJPY also moving lower. Stocks falling (based on forexlive article)

The EURUSD has dipped below the 100 hour MA as traders debate more hawkish or more dovish. The RBNZ statement which was decidedly more bearish, may have also attracted some sympathy selling in the EURUSD in the process, but that is just an observation, not a statement of fact.

The 100 hour MA held support in early NY trading. The current level comes in at 112.90. The low extended to 112.81.  IF the price is to go lower, traders will want to see further momentum soon.  If not expect consolidation into the early Asian trading as traders reassess.

Meanwhile, the USDJPY is moving lower as well, as stocks move to lows for the day and flows lead into the JPY. The pair is moving  toward the 117.17 support floor. The pair  has been finding dip buyers against the 117.17-32 area over the last 7 or so trading days with quick reactionary buys.    Those looking for the dip to buy, this is your area to lean against judging from the recent history. However, be careful on a break. There should be some stops below the low.

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newdigital, 2015.01.29 15:13

2015-01-29 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Unemployment Claims]

• past data is 308K
• forecast data is 300K
• actual data is 265K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy

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"In the week ending January 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claimswas 265,000, a decrease of 43,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since April 15, 2000 when it was 259,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 307,000 to 308,000. The 4-week moving average was 298,500, a decrease of 8,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 306,500 to 306,750.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment ratewas 1.8 percent for the week ending January 17, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemploymentduring the week ending January 17 was 2,385,000, a decrease of 71,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up 13,000 from 2,443,000 to 2,456,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,438,500, an increase of 8,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 3,250 from 2,427,000 to 2,430,250."