EUR/USD – Elliot Wave analysis suggests first target reached says Goldman Sachs (based on forexlive article)
USD/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis
The greenback found good support at 115.85 and has rebounded, retaining
our view that further consolidation within 115.57-121.85 range would be
seen with initial mild upside bias for another bounce to 119.00 and
possibly towards 119.96-00. Having said that, a break of resistance at
120.83 is needed to signal correction from 121.85 has ended bring retest
of this level, above there would signal medium term upmove has resumed
for gain to 122.50-60, however, loss of near term upward momentum should
prevent sharp move beyond 123.20-25 (2 times extension of 101.07-110.09
measuring from 105.20) and reckon 124.10-15 (50% projection of
105.20-118.98 measuring from 117.24) would hold, price should falter
well below psychological resistance at 125.00. Our preferred
count is that, triangle wave IV (with circle) ended at 101.45 and the
circle wave V brought dollar down to the record low of 75.31 in 2011 and
the subsequent rebound signal major correction has commenced with A leg
ended at 84.19, followed by wave B at 77.14 and impulsive wave C is now
unfolding for gain towards 125.00 level.Under this count, this
wave C is unfolding as impulsive waves with (1) (2), 1 2 ended at 80.67,
79.07, 82.84 and 81.69 respectively, hence the extended wave 3 has
ended at 103.74 and wave 4 correction of recent upmove should bring
weakness to 92.57, then towards 90.88 but psychological support at 90.00
should limit downside and bring another rally later in wave 5,
indicated target at 118.00 had been met and gain to 122.00 cannot be
ruled out but reckon price would falter below 125.00.On the
downside, expect pullback to be limited to 116.50 and bring another
rebound later. Only a break of said support at 115.57 would dampen our
bullishness and risk retracement of recent upmove to 113.50-55 (50%
Fibonacci retracement of 105.20-121.85), however, downside should be
limited to 112.90-00 and reckon 111.50-60 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement)
would contain weakness and price should stay well above previous
resistance at 110.09, bring another rally later.
Recommendation: Hold long entered at 116.50 for 119.50 with stop below 115.50.
EUR/USD Rallies to 1.1250 Following Greek Vote (based on marketpulse article)
The euro rebounded on Monday as investors took advantage of steep
losses sustained during two days of dramatic selling, with the final
push down to a fresh 11-year low coming after elections in Greece put an
anti-austerity government in power.
Following the outcome of Sunday’s vote, the euro hit its lowest
against the U.S. dollar since September 2003 at $1.1098 in Asian
trading, according to the EBS trading platform EUR=EBS. Greece elected,
as expected, left-wing leader Alexis Tsipras of the anti-bailout Syriza
Tsipras’s party won 149 seats in the 300-seat Greek parliament,
setting Athens on a collision course with international lenders and
potentially threatening its place in the euro.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Quiet Consolidation Continues (based on dailyfx article)
The US Dollar is consolidating gains against the Japanese Yen having advanced as expected after forming a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern. Near-term resistance is at 119.48, the 23.6%Fibonacci
expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing
the December 23 high at 120.82. Alternatively, a reversal below the 117.64-91 area marked by a horizontal pivot and the 23.6% Fib retracement opens the door for a test of the 38.2% threshold at 115.48.
Positioning is inconclusive at this point, with
prices offering no clear-cut and actionable signal to initiate a long or
short trade. We will continue to remain on the sidelines for the time
being, waiting for a compelling opportunity to present itself.
Another Big Week Points to Major Currency Moves - How Might we Trade? (based on dailyfx article)
Forex technical trading: USDJPY a little more bullish but still within the range parameters (based on forexlive article)
The USDJPY remains stuck in a range – above and below trend line
resistance – with the 100 and 200 hour MAs in between (blue and green
lines) There have been a couple weak attempts to push outside the
boundaries- once on the topside on Friday and today on the downside in
the first few hours of trading. Each failed. Currently, the pair has
been able to extend above the 100 hour MA which gives it a little more
bullish bias (100 hour MA comes in at 118.05 level – blue line). The
topside trend line is currently trading at 118.58.
Good Artists Copy, Great Artists Steal: A 3-Month Outlook On EURUSD (based on seekingalpha article)
During a multi-part PBS television program "Triumph of
the Nerds: The Rise of Accidental Empires", which premiered in 1996,
Steve Jobs mentioned the saying which he attributed to Pablo Picasso:
USDJPY Japan Economy will Collapse (adapted from livetradingnews article)
The shortfall of 12.78tn, Japan’s fourth-consecutive annual deficit,
was 11.4% wider than 2013 and was the worst since records began in 1979,
according to the finance ministry. Fuel costs have weighed heavily on Japan as the resource-poor country
struggles to plug a huge energy gap after the 2011 atomic crisis forced
the shutdown of nuclear reactors that once supplied more than a quarter
of its power. That problem has been exacerbated by a sharp fall in the yen, which
hiked the cost of energy imports purchased in foreign currencies.
In December alone, however, Japan’s trade deficit almost halved over the previous year to 660.7bn, largely thanks to falling oil prices.
The trade balance last month was also helped by a better-than-expected 12.9% jump in exports.
deficit “is set to narrow further as lower energy prices are still not
fully reflected in import costs”, Capital Economics said in note after
the figures were published.
“The key development for the trade balance in coming months… remains the plunge in the price of crude oil since last summer. So far, this is only partly reflected in the cost of imported petroleum.
AUDIO - Currency Perspectives with Reggie Ringgold
The Euro showed a little strength, while the dollar took a breather! Reggie Ringgold
joins Power Trading Radio to offer his thoughts on the trend for both
of these currencies and much more. The duo take a look at how the recent
Greek elections may impact the Euro going forward and possibly global