Pound to Dollar Forecasts 2015 by HSBC: Goldman Sachs and Barclays Exchange Rate Analysts

Hello Sergey,

Very interesting article, however, do you think we have to forget about a possible move down to 1.5398 or lower close to 1.5200? If seasonal patters are accurate during January things can keep moving in favor of a stronger US dollar.

Best Regars,

Jose Ricaurte Jaen - Senior Sales Trader, Guardian Trust 

The problem with some major pairs are the following:

Some of them are on breakdown within primary bearish. It means that we can expect the next price movement for downtrend for example. And key support levels are limited to few ones ...

Just example with monthly Ichimoku chart - you see that Chinkou Span line (blue line on the left) crossed the price on close MN1 bar so this is real breakdown:

And we know that it is MN1 timeframe so one bar there = 1 month ...

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If we look at patterns so we will have the following.

Developed/formed Retracement pattern  for bearish/downtrend:

But this is a formed patterns - means - it is too late to open any trade ...

I think - the key timeframe for this GBPUSD pair to know about how this price will be started to be moved in few weeks of 2015 - it is H12:

We can see forming Retrecement pattern for uptrend, and we can see the triangle price pattern, and we see that the price is going to opposite direction by breaking one of the line of this triangle .... so it means that we should watch this timeframe for support/resistance levels.

Because MN1 timeframe (and D1) will not be able to provide some 'good' information to us about how this pair will be mobeved in January 2015.

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I am using free indicators and free tools (most of them are in MT5 CodeBase).
If you need them - let me know.

Thanks a lot Sergey, 

Appreciate your analysis, I had the opportunity to take advantage of a small short position. I believe that any downside related to this pair can be limited. Still, we cannot deny that it can trade back to 1.5239