EURUSD Technical Analysis 2014, 21.12 - 28.12: Bearish Breakdown

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newdigital, 2014.12.19 19:27

Forex Weekly Outlook December 22-26 (based on forexcrunch article)

GDP data from Canada and the US, US Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, Unemployment claims, Haruhiko Kuroda’s speech are the major topics in Forex calendar. heck out these events on our weekly outlook.

Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen switched the phrase “considerable time” with the word “patience” in referral to rate hikes, at the FOMC press conference. The move was made to calm markets awaiting sharp policy shifts. Three Fed officials registered their dissent expressing discomfort with the Fed’s message. The Jobless claims came out better than expected with a drop to 289K, reaffirming US labor market’s strength. Philly Fed Manufacturing index came below expectations reaching 24.5 following the steep rise in November, still maintaining a positive score. New orders plunged from 35.7 to 15.7 and employment down from 22.4 to 7.2 points. Will the US economy continue to strengthen in 2015?

1. Canadian GDP: Tuesday, 13:30. Canada’s economy expanded 0.4% in October after higher oil, gas and mining extraction, as well as manufacturing boosted growth. October’s reading was preceded by a 0.1% contraction in August. Since Canada is a major oil exporter, the Bank of Canada estimates that the slide in oil prices will reduce Canadian economic growth by 1/3 percentage points, somewhere between 2% and 2.5% in 2015. Poloz is also worried by household imbalances risking financial stability, leaving the door open for additional guidance in the future. Markets expect Canadian GDP to rise 0.1% in November.
2. US Durable Goods Orders: Tuesday, 13:30. U.S. durable goods orders picked up in October beating expectations for a 0.4% fall. New orders rose by 0.4%, reaching $243.8 billion. Meanwhile, demand for manufactured goods, excluding transportation dropped 0.9% to $167.6 billion in October, after a 0.1% rise in the prior month. Analysts believe the decline suggests that business capital spending is weakening in Q4.The Fed expects GDP to slow to 2.5% in the fourth quarter. Long lasting product orders are expected to surge by 3%. While core orders are predicted to 3edge up 1.1%.
3. US GDP: Tuesday, 13:30. On The second estimate of real gross domestic product for the third quarter of 2014 showed an annual rate increase of 3.9%, weaker than the 4.6% gain posted in the second quarter. However, this forecast was upwardly revised from the advance estimate of 3.5% released in October. Personal consumption expenditures and nonresidential fixed income investment increased more than expected, but export growth was slower than previously thought. The final GDP release for the third quarter is expected to reach 4.3%.
4. New Home Sales: Tuesday, 15:00. Sales of new U.S. homes rose modestly in October, following a pickup in activity in the Midwest. New home sales increased 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 458,000. Economists expected a higher figure of 471,000. Sales of existing homes rose 1.5% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.26 million, adding another positive sign that the housing market is recovering. Analysts exdpect new home sales to reach 461,000 in November.
5. US Unemployment Claims: Wednesday, 13:30. Fewer Americans filed claims for unemployment benefits last week, indicating increasing confidence among employers. The weekly unemployment claims dropped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 289,000, the lowest level since late October. The four-week average dropped 750 to 298,750. In the first 11 months of this year, employers have added 2.65 million jobs, posting the best hiring since 1999. The number of new claims is expected to reach 291,000 this week.
6. Haruhiko Kuroda speaks: Thursday, 3:45. BOE Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks in Tokyo. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated the bank will meet its 2% inflation target and continue to increasing base money, or cash and deposits at the bank, at an annual pace of 80 trillion yen ($674 billion). Kuroda said Japan’s economy continues to recover moderately after the tax hike effect subsides.

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newdigital, 2014.12.20 09:20

Euro Struggles Ahead of Greek Election- USD/CAD Carves Lower Highs (based on dailyfx article)

• EUR/USD slips to a fresh monthly low & threatens bullish formation in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as Greece prepares for the second-round of voting on December 23; next downside target comes in around 1.2190-1.2200 (50% expansion).
• Will look for a bullish breakout in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to favor a further advance in USD/CHF especially as the upward trending channel continues to take shape.

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newdigital, 2014.12.20 15:48

EUR/USD forecast for the week of December 22, 2014, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair tried to break above the 1.25 level during the week, but then turned back around to break down towards the 1.22 handle. Because of this, we feel that the longer-term downtrend is going to continue and that rallies will continue to be selling opportunities. However, this is Christmas weeks ago expect a lot in the way of movement has more than likely the market will be fairly stagnant. With that being the case though, we have no interest in buying this market and think that eventually it should continue to fall.

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newdigital, 2014.12.21 08:41

EUR/USD Approaching Major Monthly Support (based on investing article)

Below is a monthly chart of the EUR/USD. On it we can see that price is approaching, once again, the 50% retracement of the enormous leg up from the euro's inception around the turn of the millennium to its 2008 highs.

A break below the June 2010 low of 1.1875 could be another key sign of sustainable US dollar strength.



Below is the aforementioned monthly chart,but with some trendlines added. There may be some opportunities for traders to buy at the bottom trendline and sell at the top trendline. Breakouts of the trendlines could signal the direction of the trend for years to come.

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newdigital, 2014.12.22 18:27

EUR/USD Moves Down Again (based on finances article)

Last Friday the world’s financial markets closed mixed. In Europe, the FTSE 100 advanced 1.23 percent up to 6,545.27 points, the DAX 30 fell 0.25 percent closing at 9,778.90 points, and the CAC 40 shed 0.18 percent down to 4,241.65 points.

On the Russian equity market, the MICEX index dropped 1.9 percent down to 1,449.13 points whereas the RTS index grew 0.41 percent up to 768.06 points.

In the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.15 percent closing at 17,804.80 points, the Standard & Poor’s 500 grew 0.46 percent up to 2,070.65 points, and the NASDAQ Composite gained 0.36 percent going up to 4,765.38 points.

The MYMEX price of WTI oil futures for January rose by $2.41 and made $56.52 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the price of Brent oil futures for February went up by $2.11 and finished trading at $61.38 a barrel.

On the Forex market, EURUSD is going down. Now it’s at the bottom boundary of the weekly triangle. As the scale is quite large, it’s hard to pinpoint the level at which the pair may break out of the triangle or rebound from the support. Thus, it would make sense just to watch the pair’s movements for some time.

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Something Interesting in Financial Video December 2014

newdigital, 2014.12.25 04:58

Strategy Video: A Systemic Change in Market Conditions for 2015 (based on dailyfx article)

• Record highs for US equities and a slump in volatility developed under precarious circumstances
• Important changes in the financial system were already starting to take place in 2H 2014
• In the New Year, look for volatility to increase, risk aversion to take and trading approaches to change

Record highs in markets founded on record exposure to leverage and exceptionally low rates of return make for an ill-fated future. While benchmarks like the S&P 500 have chugged along consistently for nearly six years following the Great Financial Crisis, the foundation for this performance never fully set. The higher we reach, the more obvious the instability of the situation becomes. Market participants were already showing greater deference for these concerns in the second half of 2014, but the convergence of all the elements and damaging catalysts will more dramatically and permanently turn the current. This will result in more systemic volatility, greater correlations, rising volume, a focus on 'risk aversion' and a change in traders' approach to the market. We discuss the trading landscape of the New Year in today's Strategy Video.

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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2014, 21.12 - 28.12: Bearish Breakdown

newdigital, 2014.12.25 05:20

1.2265 support level was broken on close D1 bar and we are having new support level for now: 1.2164

If someone used my advice and open sell stop order at 1.2265 so you should have 76 pips in profit for now: