NZD/USD Fundamentals - Weekly Outlook: June 30 - July 4

NZD/USD Fundamentals - Weekly Outlook: June 30 - July 4

30 June 2014, 17:00
Sergey Golubev
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The New Zealand dollar ended Friday’s session close to a 34-month high against its U.S. counterpart, as upbeat U.S. consumer sentiment data failed to dispel concerns over the outlook for the wider economic recovery.

NZD/USD hit 0.8792 on Thursday, the pair’s highest since August 1, 2011, before subsequently consolidating at 0.8778 by close of trade on Friday, down 0.03% for the day but 0.93% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8733, the low from June 26 and resistance at 0.8792, the high from June 26.

The final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 82.5 this month from 81.9 in May, compared to expectations of 82.2.

The report did little to alter expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for an extended period after data earlier in the week showed that U.S. first quarter growth was revised sharply lower.

The dollar weakened across the board after the Commerce Department said Wednesday that U.S. gross domestic product contracted at an annual rate of 2.9% in the first three months of the year, compared to the consensus forecast for a decline of 1.7%.

U.S. first quarter GDP was initially reported to have increased by 0.1%, but was subsequently revised to show a contraction of 1.0%.

The dollar came under additional pressure after data on Thursday showed that U.S. consumer spending rose by just 0.2% in May, below forecasts for 0.4%.

Meanwhile, in New Zealand, trade data released Friday showed that New Zealand's trade surplus narrowed to NZ$285 million last month, from NZ$498 million in May. Analysts had expected the trade surplus to narrow to NZ$250 million in June.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, due to be released one day early on Thursday for further indications on the strength of the labor market.

Monday, June 30
  • New Zealand is to produce private sector data on business confidence, as well as a report on building consents.
  • The U.S. is to produce data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region and a report on pending home sales.
Tuesday, July 1
  • The Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on U.S. manufacturing activity.
Wednesday, July 2
  • The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to release data on factory orders.
  • Later Wednesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington; her comments will be closely watched.
Thursday, July 3
  • The U.S. is to release data on the trade balance, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims. The U.S. is also to publish what will be closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, one day ahead of schedule due to the fourth of July holiday.
  • Later Thursday, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.
Friday, July 4
  • Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Independence Day holiday.
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