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October 29th 2014. Hi, I’m back however as you know I had been managing positions on holiday. It rained a lot anyway! I have just opened a USDJPY position.
Remember we have the FOMC statement after the final taper of MBS today. Any mention of a timeline for rate rises would likely strengthen the Greenback across the board.
I’ve mentioned before about the SNB and their commitment to defend the 1.2000 floor, and so, should equities start to come off again, this could open a move in EURCHF towards 1.2000 and force the SNB into action. If you get into this position, be prepared to sit it out and consider the possibility that 1.2000 could even get taken out before the SNB intervenes. A stop-loss just under 1.2000 will most surely be taken out. As I said in the webinar here if you get long, have some insurance such as a hedge or an option. At a minimum have a guaranteed a stop-loss .
All other markets are pretty much stuck in the middle of their corrective patterns versus the dollar. 1.2886 is EURUSD key resistance and a close above there will continue the correction across the board.
Watch out for a lower top in SPX500 at around 1986 and take a close look at US Oil. This market is now deeply oversold and a close above last week’s high $83.24 may set up a good risk/reward long position.
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