Technical Analysis
23 September 2026
Overview
Today’s central themes are broad dollar strength, the Nasdaq 100’s outperformance, weaker European equities, declining precious metals and a sharp rebound in natural gas.
In FX markets, the euro, pound, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are all declining against the US dollar. USD/JPY and USD/CHF show strong buy signals on the hourly and daily charts, confirming a clear dollar-strength trend.
Among equity indices, the Nasdaq 100 shows strong buy signals across all timeframes, while the Dow Jones, DAX, UK 100 and CAC 40 are predominantly bearish. This is not broad equity-market strength; buying is concentrated in US technology stocks.
In commodity markets, gold and silver continue to decline. WTI crude fell to US$89.98 before entering a short-term rebound. Natural gas surged from 2.835 yesterday to 3.205, with the daily chart turning strongly bullish.
Key Changes Since the Previous Analysis
• Natural gas rose approximately 13.1% from 2.835 to 3.205
• Nasdaq 100 rose approximately 0.8% from 30,482.35 to 30,732.40
• WTI crude fell approximately 0.9% from 90.83 to 89.98
• DAX fell approximately 0.8% from 25,645.13 to 25,429.11
• UK 100 fell approximately 0.4% from 10,753.35 to 10,706.01
• Dow Jones fell approximately 0.4% from 52,048.83 to 51,863.69
• S&P 500 was broadly unchanged at 7,764.64 from 7,764.70
• Nikkei 225 was unchanged from the previous analysis at 65,018.95
The sharp rebound in natural gas and the rise in the Nasdaq 100 stand out today. By contrast, European equities and precious metals remain in downtrends.
FX Markets
EUR/USD 1.1418
The 5-minute chart is bullish, but the 15-minute chart is bearish and the hourly and daily charts show strong sell signals.
EUR/USD has fallen from 1.1463 in the previous analysis, with euro weakness and dollar strength continuing. A 5-minute rebound is visible, but it runs against the strong hourly sell signal.
The basic strategy remains selling on rallies.
GBP/USD 1.3291
The 5-minute chart is bullish, while the 15-minute through daily charts show strong sell signals.
GBP/USD has fallen from 1.3361. Even if short-term rebounds emerge, the bearish direction on the higher timeframes remains clear.
The basic strategy remains selling on rallies.
USD/JPY 157.81
The 5-minute chart shows a strong sell signal, the 15-minute chart is neutral, while the hourly and daily charts show strong buy signals.
USD/JPY has risen from 157.05 in the previous analysis. Short-term profit-taking is emerging, but the medium-term and daily trend remains towards dollar strength and yen weakness.
Buying on dips remains the basic strategy. However, intervention concerns are likely to intensify near 158, so chasing prices higher requires caution.
USD/CHF 0.8227
The 5-minute chart is bearish, the 15-minute chart is bullish, while the hourly and daily charts show strong buy signals.
After the short-term decline seen in the previous analysis, USD/CHF has turned back towards dollar strength. If the 5-minute correction ends, the pair becomes a buying-on-dips candidate.
AUD/USD 0.7077
All timeframes show strong sell signals.
Australian dollar weakness and US dollar strength are fully aligned. This is one of the clearest downtrends among the dollar pairs.
The basic strategy remains selling on rallies.
NZD/USD 0.5700
The 5-minute chart is neutral, while the 15-minute through daily charts show strong sell signals.
The pair was bullish from the short-term charts through to the hourly chart in the previous analysis, but it has now fully reversed lower. The short-term uptrend has broken down.
The basic strategy remains selling on rallies.
Yen Crosses
EUR/JPY 180.19
The 5-minute chart shows a strong buy signal, while the 15-minute through daily charts are neutral.
EUR/USD weakness and USD/JPY strength are offsetting each other, leaving EUR/JPY without a clear direction. It is preferable to wait for the hourly chart to establish direction rather than trade aggressively.
GBP/JPY 209.75
The 5-minute chart is bullish, while the 15-minute and hourly charts show strong sell signals and the daily chart is also bearish.
A short-term rebound is visible, but sterling weakness remains the underlying trend. Selling on rallies remains the basic strategy.
CHF/JPY 191.82
All timeframes are neutral.
Rising USD/CHF and USD/JPY are offsetting each other. The pair currently lacks direction, making it more suitable to stand aside.
EUR/GBP 0.8591
All timeframes show strong buy signals.
Both the euro and pound are weak against the dollar, but sterling is weaker. This is the clearest upward-moving cross in the current currency comparison.
The basic strategy remains buying on dips.
AUD/JPY 111.69
The short-term and hourly charts show strong sell signals, while the daily chart is bullish.
AUD/JPY remains weak because the decline in AUD/USD is stronger than the rise in USD/JPY. This is a correction within the daily uptrend, but it is preferable not to rush into buying until the hourly chart improves.
NZD/JPY 89.97
The 15-minute chart shows a strong sell signal and the daily chart is also bearish. The 5-minute and hourly charts are neutral.
The pair has fallen below 90, with New Zealand dollar weakness continuing. Selling on rallies remains favoured, but confirmation of renewed downside is needed because the hourly chart is neutral.
CAD/JPY 112.05
The 5-minute chart shows a strong sell signal, the 15-minute chart is neutral, the hourly chart shows a strong buy signal and the daily chart is bearish.
There is significant conflict between timeframes, making direction difficult to judge. With oil prices rebounding in the short term, this is not a market to chase lower in CAD/JPY.
AUD/NZD 1.2414
The short-term and hourly charts show strong sell signals, while the daily chart shows a strong buy signal.
The New Zealand dollar is stronger in the short term, while the Australian dollar remains stronger on the daily chart. Given the significant conflict between timeframes, it is preferable to wait for an hourly reversal.
EUR/CHF 0.9394
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are bullish, while the hourly and daily charts are bearish.
A short-term rebound is underway, but medium-term euro weakness and Swiss franc strength remain dominant. If the rebound loses momentum, EUR/CHF becomes a selling-on-rallies candidate.
Commodity Markets
Gold Futures 4,351.55
The 5-minute chart is bearish, while the 15-minute through daily charts show strong sell signals.
The downtrend is aligned from the short term through to the daily chart. The 5-minute rebound observed in the previous analysis has also faded, with selling pressure strengthening again.
The basic strategy remains selling on rallies.
XAU/USD 4,315.57
All timeframes show strong sell signals.
The downtrend is more clearly aligned than in gold futures. Counter-trend buying should be avoided, and the bearish bias remains in place until the hourly chart improves to neutral.
Silver Futures 65.710
The 5-minute through hourly charts show strong sell signals, while the daily chart is neutral.
Short-term selling pressure is very strong, but a daily bearish trend has not yet been confirmed. The short-term strategy is selling on rallies, while the daily-chart view remains neutral.
XAG/USD 65.2045
The short-term and hourly charts show strong sell signals, while the daily chart is neutral.
As with silver futures, the short-term decline is clear. It is preferable to wait for a rebound followed by renewed weakness rather than chase prices lower.
WTI Crude Oil US$89.98
The 5-minute chart shows a strong buy signal, the 15-minute chart is bullish, the hourly chart is neutral and the daily chart is bearish.
WTI has fallen below US$90, but a short-term rebound has begun. The market has shifted from strong selling to a short-term buying-back phase.
The daily chart remains bearish, so selling on rallies is still favoured from a medium- to long-term perspective. However, with short-term buying strong, it is preferable to wait for the rebound to fade before opening new short positions.
Natural Gas 3.205
The 5-minute chart shows a strong sell signal, the 15-minute and hourly charts are neutral and the daily chart shows a strong buy signal.
Natural gas has risen approximately 13.1% from 2.835 in the previous analysis, representing the largest change today. However, the 5-minute chart is strongly bearish after the surge, indicating short-term profit-taking.
The daily chart makes it a buying-on-dips candidate, but chasing prices immediately after a sharp rally should be avoided.
BTC/USD US$85,871
The 5-minute through hourly charts show strong sell signals, while the daily chart shows a strong buy signal.
BTC/USD showed strong buy signals across all timeframes in the previous analysis but has now entered a short-term correction. The daily uptrend remains intact, but it is preferable not to rush into buying while the hourly chart remains strongly bearish.
If short-term selling fades and the 15-minute and hourly charts improve, BTC/USD becomes a buying-on-dips candidate.
Equity Indices
Dow Jones 51,863.69
The 5-minute chart shows a strong sell signal, the 15-minute chart is neutral, the hourly chart is bearish and the daily chart shows a strong sell signal.
The short-term rebound seen previously has faded, and the index has turned lower again. It is the weakest major US equity index.
The basic strategy remains selling on rallies.
S&P 500 7,764.64
The 5-minute chart shows a strong sell signal, the 15-minute chart is neutral, while the hourly and daily charts show strong buy signals.
The medium- to long-term uptrend remains intact, but the index is currently in a short-term correction. If the 5-minute sell signal fades, the S&P 500 becomes a buying-on-dips candidate.
Nasdaq 100 30,732.40
All timeframes show strong buy signals.
The Nasdaq 100 has risen further from the previous analysis and remains the strongest equity index. Buying is concentrated in technology stocks rather than being spread across the broader US market.
The basic strategy remains buying on dips. However, with prices at elevated levels, caution is needed against sudden profit-taking.
DAX 25,429.11
All timeframes show strong sell signals.
The DAX showed strong buy signals from the short term through to the hourly chart in the previous analysis, but has now fully reversed into sell signals. This is the index with the largest directional change today.
The basic strategy remains selling on rallies.
UK 100 10,706.01
The short-term and hourly charts show strong sell signals, while the daily chart is also bearish.
The previous uptrend has broken down, with the market turning broadly bearish. It is more appropriate to sell after a short-term rebound rather than chase prices lower.
CAC 40 8,141.28
All timeframes show strong sell signals.
The CAC 40 showed strong buy signals from the short term through to the hourly chart in the previous analysis, but has now returned to a full downtrend. With daily strong sell signals aligned with the short-term direction, it is one of the weakest European equity indices.
Nikkei 225 65,018.95
The 5-minute chart shows a strong sell signal, the 15-minute chart is neutral, while the hourly chart shows a strong buy signal and the daily chart is bullish.
The price is unchanged from the previous analysis. The medium- to long-term uptrend remains intact, but a short-term correction is continuing.
If the 15-minute chart turns bullish, the Nikkei becomes a buying-on-dips candidate.
Strength Ranking
S Rank
• Nasdaq 100
• EUR/GBP
• USD/JPY hourly and daily charts
• USD/CHF hourly and daily charts
A Rank
• S&P 500 hourly and daily charts
• Nikkei 225 hourly and daily charts
• Natural gas daily chart
• WTI crude short-term charts
B Rank
• EUR/JPY 5-minute chart
• EUR/CHF short-term charts
• CAD/JPY hourly chart
Weakness Ranking
S Rank
• AUD/USD
• Gold
• XAU/USD
• DAX
• CAC 40
A Rank
• NZD/USD
• GBP/USD
• Dow Jones
• UK 100
• Silver
B Rank
• GBP/JPY
• AUD/JPY
• BTC/USD short-term charts
• NZD/JPY
Trading Strategy
Buy Bias
• Nasdaq 100
• EUR/GBP
• USD/JPY hourly and daily charts
• USD/CHF hourly and daily charts
Buying-on-Dips Candidates
• S&P 500
• Nikkei 225
• Natural gas daily chart
• BTC/USD daily chart
Sell Bias
• AUD/USD
• NZD/USD
• GBP/USD
• Gold
• XAU/USD
• DAX
• UK 100
• CAC 40
• Dow Jones
Selling-on-Rallies Candidates
• EUR/USD
• GBP/JPY
• AUD/JPY
• Silver
• EUR/CHF
Prioritise Directional Confirmation
• WTI crude oil
• BTC/USD
• EUR/JPY
• CHF/JPY
• CAD/JPY
• AUD/NZD
Key Points
The clearest buying candidates are the Nasdaq 100 and EUR/GBP.
The clearest selling candidates are AUD/USD, gold, DAX and CAC 40.
WTI crude shows a daily sell signal against short-term buy signals, while natural gas shows a daily buy signal against a 5-minute sell signal. With timeframes conflicting in energy markets, it is important to define clearly whether the short-term or daily chart is the primary trading reference.
Among equity markets, only the Nasdaq 100 shows strong buy signals across all timeframes. The Dow Jones and European equities remain weak, indicating that this is not broad risk appetite but a market characterised by concentrated buying in US technology stocks.
