分析と予測

📌 BOJ Holds Policy Rate, Announces ETF Sales — Market Reads a Hawkish Signal

19 9月 2025, 12:59
Masayuki Sakamoto
Masayuki Sakamoto
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📌 BOJ Holds Policy Rate, Announces ETF Sales — Market Reads a Hawkish Signal

■ Policy Decision

  • Rates: Unchanged (7–2 vote).

    • Board members Takata and Tamura argued for a hike to 0.75%, marking the first dissent under Governor Ueda.

  • ETF & REIT Sales:

    • BOJ will begin selling its ETF and REIT holdings.

    • Ueda explained that “knowledge has been accumulated and operational preparations are complete.”

    • Sales pace equals “over 100 years” at current levels, but can be paused or adjusted if necessary.

    • Clear emphasis on limiting market disruption.

Takeaway: Despite the rate hold, the combination of dissenting votes and an exit-focused ETF policy gives the decision a hawkish tone.

■ Governor Ueda’s Press Conference

  • Rate Outlook:

    • Reiterated that further hikes remain on the table, conditional on wages and inflation trends.

    • Suggested that if markets see policy as “done for now,” yen appreciation could reverse.

  • ETF/REIT Sales:

    • Framed as part of a long-term normalization strategy, conducted with market stability in mind.

■ Market Reaction

  • USD/JPY: Dropped sharply from 148.00 → 147.20, later stabilizing.

  • Cross-yen: Broad yen gains were seen across pairs.

  • Focus ahead: Whether the October meeting will hint more strongly at a rate hike.

■ Overseas Events to Watch

  • Economic Data:

    • France: Business Sentiment (Sep)

    • Hong Kong: Current Account (Q2)

    • Canada: Retail Sales (Jul, forecast –0.8% headline)

  • Events:

    • US–China leaders’ call

    • Fed Governor Bowman (TV interview)

    • SF Fed’s Daly at AI-related event

  • US Markets: Triple Witching — simultaneous expiry of stock options, futures, and index derivatives.

■ Summary

The BOJ struck a “hold + hawkish signal” balance. The start of ETF/REIT sales marks the first step in a long-term exit plan, while dissenting votes show rising pressure for rate hikes. FX markets reacted with a bout of yen strength, but USD/JPY ultimately settled back into the 147 range, with investors looking ahead to October for clearer guidance on the next move.