Mixed Drivers as Geopolitical Risks Intersect — Focus Shifts to U.S. Indicators, Led by the ADP Employment Report
分析と予測

Mixed Drivers as Geopolitical Risks Intersect — Focus Shifts to U.S. Indicators, Led by the ADP Employment Report

7 1月 2026, 10:16
Masayuki Sakamoto
Masayuki Sakamoto
0
7

Mixed Drivers as Geopolitical Risks Intersect
— Focus Shifts to U.S. Indicators, Led by the ADP Employment Report

At the start of the new year, financial markets have opened on a firm note, particularly equities.
Despite rising geopolitical risks surrounding Venezuela, there is little sense of pessimism in stock markets.

  • Rising resource and precious-metal prices

  • Persistent strength in AI-related shares

These factors together continue to underpin equity gains.

◆ Geopolitical Risks Could Spill Over Into the Eastern Hemisphere

While President Trump emphasizes U.S. dominance over the Western Hemisphere, the global economy remains deeply interconnected — meaning the effects could spread to the Eastern Hemisphere as well.

Key concerns include:

  • Heightening tensions in Japan–China relations

  • A revival of import-driven inflation

  • Disruptions to supply chains

It will be important to watch whether conditions reminiscent of the early phase of the Ukraine conflict begin to resurface.

◆ Venezuela-Driven Moves Pause — Attention Turns to U.S. Data

Recently, crude prices have retreated following Mr. Trump’s comments regarding Venezuelan oil supply.

The Venezuela-linked “geopolitical risk trade” has temporarily calmed,
and market attention is shifting toward U.S. economic data.

This week, price action is likely to revolve around anticipation of the U.S. employment report at week’s end.

◆ Upcoming U.S. Economic Releases

A series of key indicators is clustered ahead:

  • MBA Mortgage Applications (two weeks)

  • ADP Employment Report (December) — highly watched

  • Factory Orders (October)

  • Durable Goods Orders, final (October)

  • ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (December)

  • JOLTS Job Openings (November)

Market expectations:

  • ADP employment: +50,000 (moderate rebound)

  • ISM non-manufacturing: 52.2 (slight decline)

  • JOLTS openings: 7.648 million (small decrease)

Overall, the base case is “slowing, but not collapsing.”
Depending on surprises, the dollar could swing sharply.

◆ Earlier European Release: Eurozone HICP

Eurozone flash HICP (December)

  • YoY headline: +2.0% (slight slowdown)

  • Core: +2.4% (expected flat)

With the ECB leaning toward “hold for now,” any result broadly in line with expectations is likely to limit euro volatility.

◆ Speakers & Oil-Related Developments

  • Fed Vice Chair Bowman (Supervision)

  • Portugal’s central bank governor, Centeno

Both are scheduled late in New York trading.

Meanwhile, U.S. weekly petroleum inventory data may drive crude prices — and any swings in oil could spill over into commodity-linked currencies.

◆ London Session: Dollar Index Takes a Breather

Corrections in crude oil and gold prompted selling in commodity currencies, leading to renewed dollar buying pressure.

  • Dollar Index rose to 98.69 before easing slightly

  • Still held in positive territory versus the prior day

Dollar Index: 98.63 (+0.05 / +0.05%)


#ADP, Employment, report