U.S. Employment Data in Focus Again Today
— Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs Ahead, With Eyes on Tomorrow’s U.S. Jobs Report
This week, the market’s initial reaction to the Venezuela-related crisis has largely run its course.
Crude oil and precious metals have shifted into a corrective phase, and the post-crisis surge in:
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Safe-haven buying
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Risk-off flows
has temporarily subsided.
Market attention is now clearly turning toward tomorrow’s U.S. employment report.
◆ Review of Yesterday’s U.S. Labor Indicators — Mixed Signals
ADP Employment Report (December)
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Actual: +41k
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Forecast: +50k
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Prior: -32k, revised up to -29k
→ Below expectations, but not as weak as the previous reading.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
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Headline index: Improved
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Employment component: 52.0 (prior 48.9)
→ Service-sector employment returned to expansion territory.
JOLTS Job Openings
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Actual: 7.146 million
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Prior: 7.670 million
→ Hiring demand continues to slow.
👉 Overall, the data painted a mixed picture — neither clearly strong nor clearly weak.
◆ Today’s Focus: U.S. Employment-Related Data
Against this uncertain backdrop, the following indicators are due today:
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
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Forecast: 212k
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Prior: 199k
→ A modest deterioration is expected after recent strength.
U.S. Unit Labor Costs (Q3)
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Forecast: -0.1%
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Prior: +1.0%
→ Slowing wage-cost pressures are anticipated.
None of today’s releases are expected to signal a renewed surge in labor market strength.
◆ Broader Market Context
At this stage:
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No decisive data has emerged to shape expectations for tomorrow’s jobs report
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The initial Venezuela-driven risk reaction has faded
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Market conditions remain prone to corrective pressure
Going forward, markets are likely to trade while watching:
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Potential equity market pullbacks
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A pause in the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields
◆ Ahead in Overseas Markets: A Broad Lineup of Data
United States
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Challenger Job Cuts (December)
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Trade Balance (October)
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Labor Productivity (Q3, preliminary)
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Wholesale Inventories (October, final)
◆ Survey-Based & Inflation Expectation Indicators
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UK DMP Inflation Survey (December)
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U.S. NY Fed Inflation Expectations (December)
That said, markets broadly believe:
The Fed’s policy focus has shifted from inflation toward employment.
As a result, tomorrow’s U.S. employment report remains the single most important event.
◆ Speaking Events
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Swiss National Bank minutes (Dec. 11 meeting)
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Fed Governor Mester: TV appearance and speech
◆ London Session: Dollar Index Edges Higher
The dollar index continues to post modest daily gains.
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Early London high: 98.823
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Prior New York close (98.684) acting as support
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Re-testing the 200-day moving average (98.857)
Dollar Index: 98.80 (+0.11 / +0.11%)
From a technical perspective, the near-term focus is whether the index can decisively break above the 200-day moving average.
🔎 Summary
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Venezuela-driven risk premium has faded
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U.S. labor indicators remain mixed
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Today’s data are a “warm-up,” with tomorrow’s jobs report the main event
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Dollar Index is testing its 200-day moving average
