EUR/USD January-March 2017 Forecast: bearish ranging with 1.0324 key support level
W1 price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart within the following support/resistance levels:
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.23 06:42
Credit Suisse forecast for EUR/USD in 2017: core target remains in 1.01 (based on the aricle)
Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.24 12:10
Euro Q1 2017 Forecast - EUR/USD Enters 2017 Positioned for More Downside (based on the article)
Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.03 17:43
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and S&P 500: ISM Manufacturing PMI
2017-01-03 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.
From official report:
"The December PMI® registered 54.7 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the November reading of 53.2 percent. The New Orders Index registered 60.2 percent, an increase of 7.2 percentage points from the November reading of 53 percent. The Production Index registered 60.3 percent, 4.3 percentage points higher than the November reading of 56 percent. The Employment Index registered 53.1 percent, an increase of 0.8 percentage point from the November reading of 52.3 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 47 percent, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the November reading of 49 percent. The Prices Index registered 65.5 percent in December, an increase of 11 percentage points from the November reading of 54.5 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 10th consecutive month. The PMI®, New Orders, Production and Employment Indexes all registered new highs for the year 2016, and the forward-looking comments from the panel are largely positive."
EUR/USD M5: 75 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events
GBP/USD M5: 50 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events
S&P 500: range pips price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events
Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.05 17:42
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, AUD/USD and DJIA: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
2017-01-05 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]
[USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry.
"The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The NMI® registered 57.2 percent in December, matching the November figure. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at the same rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 61.4 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than the November reading of 61.7 percent, reflecting growth for the 89th consecutive month, at a slightly slower rate in December."
EUR/USD M5: 70 pips range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing news events
AUD/USD M5: 37 pips range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing news events
Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.06 05:39
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and S&P 500: Non-Farm Employment Change
2017-01-06 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
From the article: What To Expect From NFP? - Views From 10 Major Banks
BofA Merrill: "We look for a trend-like 175,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls. We expect 170,000 of this gain to come from the private sector and only 5,000 to come from the government sector. We think there is scope for the labor force participation rate to inch back up to 62.8% from 62.7%, and as a result, for the unemployment rate to move back up towards 4.8%. Smoothing through the volatility of wage growth in the past couple of months, we look for average hourly earnings to gain a trend-like 0.2% mom after a 0.1% mom contraction in November. This would push the year-over-year rate up to a healthier 2.7% from 2.5%."
EUR/USD H4 ahead of NFP: bullish reversal with 1.0614 resistance to be broken for the bullish trend to be continuing
GBP/USD H4 ahead of NFP: ranging within 200/100 SMA area waiting for direction
S&P 500 H4 ahead of NFP: trending above 200 SMA and near above 100 SMA for the bullish trend to be continuing or for the ranging condition to be started
Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.06 13:31
So, it means that if actual data > 175K forecasting data = good for USD. In case of EUR/USD - bearish (the price will go to the USD's side); in case of USD/JPY - bullish.Those are the actual data forecasting by major banks:
Credit Agricole: 185KEUR/USD - intra-day bearish
Goldman: 180kEUR/USD - intra-day bearish
UBS: 170kEUR/USD - intra-day bullish
Danske: 170,000EUR/USD - intra-day bullish
BofA Merrill: 175,000EUR/USD - intra-day ranging
Nomura: 175kEUR/USD - intra-day ranging
Barclays: 175kEUR/USD - intra-day ranging
SEB: 190kEUR/USD - intra-day bearish
CIBC: 165KEUR/USD - intra-day bullish
UOB: 250,000EUR/USD - intra-day bearish
Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.06 14:37
From the official report:
"Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 156,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth occurred in health care and social assistance."
EUR/USD M5: 75 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events
GBP/USD M5: 37 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events
S&P 500: pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events
Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.07 07:04
Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, January 08 - January 15 (based on the article)
to new 14-year lows in the wake of 2017 but recovered very quickly
thanks to weakness in the USD. The second week of January features trade
balance and industrial output measures.
Data in the euro-zone has been relatively positive, with a significant drop in German unemployment and a rise in inflation, especially in Germany. Retail sales missed expectations, but this did not stop the euro. In the US, data had a good start with an excellent report from the manufacturing sector but then became sour with ADP. The meeting minutes from the Fed hurt most, as they showed that Yellen and co. got a bit ahead of themselves with expectations for stimulus from Trump. The last word went to the dollar, with the NFP report: wages are up 2.9%, triggering talk about inflationary pressures.
Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.09 10:49
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Trade Balance and 25 pips range price movement
2017-01-09 07:00 GMT | [EUR - German Trade Balance]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
[EUR - German Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.==========
"The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 22.6 billion euros in
November 2016. In November 2015, the surplus amounted to 20.5 billion
euros. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the foreign trade
balance recorded a surplus of 21.7 billion euros in November 2016."
EUR/USD M5: 25 pips price movement by German Trade Balance news event
Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.09 12:20
Eurozone Unemployment Remains Unchanged In November, Lowest Since Mid-2009 (based on the article)