Press review - page 456

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CNH and NZD/USD: Producer Price Index (PPI)

2016-11-16 13:30 GMT | [USD - PPI]

• past data is 0.3%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is 0.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - PPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

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From official report:

"The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.3 percent in September and were unchanged in August. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 0.8 percent for the 12 months ended in October, the largest 12-month rise since advancing 0.9 percent in December 2014."

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EUR/USD M5: 14 pips range price movement by Producer Price Index news events

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USD/CNH M5: 46 pips price movement by Producer Price Index news events

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NZD/USD M5: 17 pips range price movement by Producer Price Index news events

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Employment Change and 34 pips range price movement

2016-11-17 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

• past data is -29.0K
• forecast data is 20.3K
• actual data is 9.8K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

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From official report:

• "Employment increased 9,800 to 11,938,900. Full-time employment increased 41,500 to 8,126,900 and part-time employment decreased 31,700 to 3,812,000."
• "Unemployment decreased 2,000 to 705,100. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work increased 700 to 494,300 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work decreased 2,700 to 210,800."
• "Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.6%."
• "Participation rate remained steady at 64.4%."
• "Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 14.3 million hours to 1674.8 million hours."

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AUD/USD M5: 34 pips range price movement by Australian Employment Change news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

GOLD (XAU/USD) Daily Bearish Breakdown With 1.1219 Support To Continue (adapted from the article)

Daily price broke 100-day SMA/200-day SMA reversal levers to be reversed to the primary bearish area of the chart. For now, the price is on testing 1,1219 support level to below for the bearish breakdown to be continuing with 1,211 and 1,200 nearest daily bearish target to re-enter.

• "The swing-low on Monday of this week came-in right at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the December low to the July high at a price of $1,210.85. But just below that level is a more critical zone of potential support at $1,200, as this is the 38.2% retracement of the Bretton Woods Fix of $35/ounce up to the 2011 high of $1,920. Perhaps more importantly, this level has been recently confirmed as support with an inflection marking the lows in May."
• "Since that support inflection at $1,210, sellers have begun to display a bit of tepidness. This has allowed prices to trickle back-up to the $1,230-level, and short-term price action is now finding resistance on the projection of the short-term trend-line that we looked at above. But sellers have been unable to re-take control of Gold prices over the past two days."
• "So while the near-term trend is still very much bearish here, seller’s conviction appears to be waning, and should the rampant strength seen in the U.S. Dollar of recent begin to recede, the long side of Gold can become attractive again. Of particular interest to this theme will be resistance levels at $1,230 and $1,250. The level at $1,230 has shown as near-term swing-resistance, and $1,250 is a Fibonacc`i level that had also provided the swing-low during the Brexit referendum."

Most likely scenarios for the daily price movement are the following: the price will be continuing with the bearish breakdown by 1,200 psy level to be broken, or the ranging bearish condition will be started for the price to be waiting for the direction of the trend based on the future fundamental factors for example.

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, S&P 500 and Dax Index: U.S. Consumer Price Index and Residential Building Permits

2016-11-17 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

• past data is 0.3%
• forecast data is 0.4%
• actual data is 0.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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2016-11-17 13:30 GMT | [USD - Building Permits]

• past data is 1.23M
• forecast data is 1.19M
• actual data is 1.23M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Building Permits] = Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month.

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From official reports:

"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.6 percent before seasonal adjustment."

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EUR/USD M5: 38 pips range price movement by CPI and Building Permits news events

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S&P 500 M5: range price movement by CPI and Building Permits news events

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Dax Index M5: range price movement by CPI and Building Permits news events

[Sergey Golubev]

ECB Minutes: Members Agreed December Better To Decide On Policy Stance (based on the article)

"European Central Bank policymakers widely agreed that it was better to wait until December to get a clearer picture of the inflation outlook to form a policy view, minutes of the October rate-setting session showed Thursday."

From official report:

• There was wide agreement among members that it was premature to make a firm assessment of the outlook for price stability and to discuss its implications for the monetary policy stance at the current meeting. While the recovery of the euro area economy appeared to be on track, underlying inflation still lacked a convincing upward trend and the scenario for growth and inflation continued to be predicated on the prevailing very favourable financing conditions, which to a large extent reflected the current accommodative monetary policy stance. In this context, it was recalled that patience continued to be warranted as the full effects of the monetary policy measures were still unfolding, given the transmission lags with which policy was feeding through to the ultimate objective, and which, in the wake of private and public sector balance sheet adjustments, were likely to be longer than usual. 
• Members widely agreed that in December the Governing Council would be in a better position to form a firmer view on the inflation outlook and the progress being made in achieving a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, with a view to considering the appropriate implications for the monetary policy stance. In December the Governing Council would have the benefit of the latest incoming data, the new Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections extending through to 2019 and the results of the work of the Eurosystem committees on the options to ensure the smooth implementation of the APP until March 2017, or beyond, if necessary. 
• All in all, members widely shared the view that it was imperative to remain fully committed to preserving the very substantial degree of monetary accommodation that was necessary to secure a sustained convergence of inflation towards levels below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Financing conditions had to remain supportive to underpin the recovery in growth and inflation, also in the face of weak underlying price pressures and prevailing uncertainties. The Governing Council had to remain fully determined to execute its asset purchases in line with its past decisions and to adopt further measures, if needed, to put inflation back on a sustainable path towards levels compatible with its inflation aim. 

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading News Events: Canada Consumer Price Index (adapted from dailyfx)

• "Another uptick in Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) along with stickiness in the core rate of inflation may foster a larger pullback in USD/CAD as the Bank of Canada (BoC) ‘expects total CPI inflation to be close to 2 percent from early 2017 onwards.’"
• "Even though the BoC ‘actively’ discussed more stimulus for the real economy, it seems as though Governor Stephen Poloz and Co. will continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy as ‘Canada’s economy is still expected to grow at a rate above potential starting in the second half of 2016.’ The risk of overshooting the 2% target for inflation may push the BoC to gradually move away from its easing-cycle, but signs of subdued price growth may encourage the central bank to further support the real economy as the region is anticipated to return to ‘full capacity around mid-2018, materially later than the Bank had anticipated in July.’"

Bullish CAD Trade: Canada CPI Picks Up for Second Consecutive Month

• "Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on USD/CAD."
• "If market reaction favors a long loonie trade, sell USD/CAD with two separate position."
• "Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
• "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit."

Bearish CAD Trade: Inflation Report Falls Short of Market Expectations

• "Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long USD/CAD trade."
• "Implement same setup as the bullish Canadian dollar trade, just in the opposite direction."

Daily price is on bullish ranging condition for 1.3551 resistance level to be broken on close daily bar for the daily bullish trend to be resumed. Alternative, if the price breaks 1.3399 support level to below on close bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.

• If the price will break 1.3551 resistance level on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
  
• If price will break 1.3399 support on close daily bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
  
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

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USD/CAD M5: 24 pips range price movement by Canada Consumer Price Index news events

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2016, November 20 - November 27 (based on the article)

The US dollar continued marching forward, accompanied by clear hints of a rate hike. US Durable Goods Orders, UK GDP and the all-important FOMC Meeting Minutes stand out in the week of Thanksgiving. These are the major events on forex calendar.

 

1. Mario Draghi speaks: Monday, 16:00. ECB President Mario Draghi will testify before the European Parliament, in Strasbourg.
2. US Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday, 13:30. Economists expect durable goods to rise 1.2% in September, while core goods to rise 0.2%.
3. US Unemployment Claims: Wednesday, 13:30. The number of jobless claims is expected to reach 241,000 this time.
4. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30.
5. US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 19:00. These are the minutes from the November meeting, in which the Fed left rates unchanged but argued that the case for raising rates has “continued to strengthen”.
6. German Ifo Business Climate: Thursday, 9:00. German business climate is expected to register 110.6 in November.
7. UK GDP data: Friday, 9:30. The second estimate is expected to confirm the first one, but changes are not uncommon.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2016, November 20 - November 27 (based on the article)

EUR/USD continued its deep dive and hit new lows as the dollar rally continued and euro-zone data was mixed. Another public appearance from Draghi and fresh PMIs stand out now. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.

1. Draghi talks: Monday, 16:00. The President of the ECB may hint about the highly anticipated December meeting of the Bank.
2. Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 15:00.
3. Flash PMIs: Wednesday: 8:00 for France, 8:30 for Germany and 9:00 for the euro-zone. For the whole euro-zone, manufacturing was ahead at 53.5 and services at 52.8 points, with 53.2 and 53.1 expected now.
4. ECB Financial Stability Review: Wednesday, 9:00. Twice a year, the European Central Bank assesses the stability of the financial sector.
5. Final German GDP: Thursday, 7:00.
6. German Ifo Business Climate: Thursday, 9:00. A score of 110.6 is forecast.
7. German GfK Consumer Climate: Thursday, 12:00. A small rise to 9.7 is on the cards.
8. Belgian NBB Business Climate: Thursday, 14:00. A small improvement to -1.5 is expected.

[Sergey Golubev]

OPEC might agree to limit production cuts at the end of the month boosted sentiment (adapted from the article)

Brent Crude Oil daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of te chart with the secondary bear market rally. The price is trying to break 48.31 resistance level to above for the bullish reversal to be started. Alternative, if the daily price breaks 44.76 and 44.18 support levels to below on close bar so the primary beaish trend will be resumed.

• "The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is moving closer to finalizing its first deal since 2008 to limit output, with most members prepared to offer Iran flexibility on production volumes, ministers and sources said."
• "Iran has been the main stumbling block for capping production, and while it has not yet responded to the proposal, it suggests OPEC members may be coming nearer to a consensus ahead of their meeting in Vienna on Nov. 30."
• "A stronger dollar makes oil, which is priced in the greenback, more expensive to buyers using other currencies."
• "But analysts said there were still obstacles for the producer group to overcome before it could reach a deal. OPEC is scheduled to meet next on Nov. 30."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "While the bearings on sentiment and the Dollar’s role in the spectrum can be debated, there is little doubt that rate speculation has been a straight forward contribution to its performance. Expectations of a rate hike before the end of the year has climbed steadily and now stands at 100 percent according to Fed Fund futures. There is good fundamental evidence to support this through Fed guidance and the evolution of data; but at this degree of expectation, there is little further value to be conferred on the currency. With a hike already priced in, we are not going to see expectations of a faster pace of tightening much less a 50 bps move. Alternatively, if volatility were to rise in the capital markets; a repeat of the summers of 2015 and 2016 where the Fed decided to defer in order to avoid unsettling the markets would be very likely. This does not pose a particularly promising set of scenarios – restrained and difficult bullish continuation against a volatile and easy to spark correction. And, while quiet can offer relief from pain; it can also cool runaway optimism enough to let the troubles show through."