Forecast and levels for GOLD (XAU/USD) - page 4

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.29 08:33

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)


XAU/USD - "Looking ahead to next week, markets will be closely eyeing central bank interest rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) & the Bank of England (BOE) with the highly anticipated U.S. Non-Farm Payroll report slated for Friday. While the broader outlook for bullion remains constructive, prices are eyeing near-term resistance heading into the close of the month and could limit the topside near-term."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.11 12:27

Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (based on the article)

An uptick in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may stoke a near-term pullback in EUR/USD as signs of rising inflation puts pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further normalize monetary policy in 2017.

What’s Expected:


Why Is This Event Important:

Even though Fed Fund Futures largely price a 50% probability for a move in December, Chair Janet Yellen and Co. may stay on course to deliver three rate-hikes in 2017 as central bank officials expect to achieve the 2% target for inflation over the policy horizon. In turn, the FOMC may endorse a more aggressive approach at the next interest rate decision on September 20 especially as the FOMC ‘expects to begin implementing its balance sheet normalization program relatively soon.’ 


XAU/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news event 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.16 15:33

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and GOLD (XAU/USD): U.S. Residential Building Permits

2017-08-16 13:30 GMT | [USD - Building Permits]

  • past data is 1.28M
  • forecast data is 1.25M
  • actual data is 1.22M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Building Permits] = Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month.

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From reuters article :

  • "U.S. homebuilding unexpectedly fell in July amid broad declines in single- and multi-family home construction, suggesting the housing market was struggling to rebound after slumping in the second quarter."
  • "Housing starts declined 4.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.16 million units, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. June's sales pace was revised down to 1.21 million units from the previously reported 1.22 million units."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Residential Building Permits news events


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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Residential Building Permits news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.24 17:22

Intra-Day Fundamentals - NZD/USD, Dollar Index and GOLD (XAU/USD): U.S. Jobless Claims

2017-08-24 13:30 GMT | [USD - Unemployment Claims]

if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

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From rttnews article :

  • "A report released by the Labor Department on Thursday showed a modest uptick in first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits in the week ended August 19th."
  • "The report said initial jobless claims inched up to 234,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 232,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to rise to 238,000."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events


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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events


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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events



 

Gold is consolidating around the 1286 level, but the bullish trend is still in place. Although, in order for the bullish trend to continue, the price must break above the 1300 level. 

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.30 08:44

GOLD (XAU/USD) - daily bullish breakout; 1,300/1,375 are the keys (based on the article)

Daily price is located far above from Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is on bullish breakout for 1,300 resistance level to be crossing for the bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "The most recent driver to provide fuel for Gold prices was last night’s missile launch out of North Korea. This time, North Korea’s missile traveled over Japan, raising worries of an actual attack. This brought a brief run of risk aversion to global markets, which has begun to recede as we’ve moved deeper into the U.S. session. This is likely why we’ve seen a chunk of that recent top-side breakout erased as a retracement has begun to show. This highlights the danger of trying to chase Gold prices at the moment: Volatility is likely going to continue to show on both sides as these very pressing themes of Dollar weakness and global risk aversion continue to develop."
  • "For traders looking at taking on long exposure in Gold, they’d likely want to wait for some element of support to show before triggering the position. Given the response on Friday, the prior swing-low in Gold is all the way down to $1,274.45, which, as of this writing, would be more than $42 in risk. That would necessitate a move to $1,359 to justify a one-to-one risk-reward ratio, which would require breaking through multiple resistance levels on the way-up. Instead, an inside move to a deeper support level can open the door for bullish continuation strategies. The level we mentioned about around $1,308 could be interesting, as this was the pre-Election swing-high in Gold prices. Below that, we have the prior breakout zone that runs from $1,296-$1,300 that could be usable for secondary support. Each of these could afford a more efficient entry with stops below that prior swing."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.03 10:40

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (based on the article)


XAU/USD - "The reaction to the lackluster U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report suggests gold will continue to exhibit a bullish behavior ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision on September 20 as mixed data prints coming out of the economy sap bets for another rate-hike in 2017. Even though ‘the Committee expects to begin implementing its balance sheet normalization program relatively soon,’ the fresh forecasts from Chair Janet Yellen and Co. may ultimately heighten the appeal of gold if central bank officials attempt to buy more time and project a more shallow path for the Fed Funds rate."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.12 16:13

Gold's Strong Performance (based on the article)

Daily price is above 200 SMA in the bullish area for trying the 1,357 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "December gold futures settled at $1,351.20 an ounce on Friday, September 8, the highest settlement for a most-active contract in more than a year, according to FactSet data reported on by MarketWatch."
  • "Anthony Allen Anderson, director at precious metals dealer GSI Exchange, specifically cited "increasing tensions in the Korean Peninsula" and "further deterioration in relations with Russia" as providing tailwinds for gold prices."
  • "Analysts also emphasized the key role Fed policy plays in gold prices, predicting that the central bank probably won't hike benchmark rates any time soon."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.16 10:22

Intra-day Gold bearish reversal with Dollar Index to be testing 91.50 support for the bearish reversal (based on the article)

Price for H4 timeframe was bounced from 1,334 resistance to below to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition with 1,315 support level to be crossing for the bearish trend to be contionuing. By the way, the Dollar Index price is goping to be reersed on intra-day basis as well with 91.50 key support level.



  • "After penetrating the zone of resistance that had developed last summer from $1,350-$1,375, short-term bearish price action has begun to show. Even with North Korea conducting another missile test and while the U.S. Dollar remained relatively bearish against most currencies, sellers controlled short-term price action in Gold, driving prices down to a key support zone. "
  • "The fact that Gold prices haven’t put in a more vigorous response to this support zone combined with the fact that bulls failed to take over after another North Korean missile flew over Japan, it would appear that more weakness is on the horizon for Gold prices. This can lead to a deeper retracement in Gold prices, and below we’re looking at three support zones of interest below the current area. This could be looked at as potential take-off points for the longer-term bullish theme, with the expectation that an eventual re-test of $1,375 will be in the cards; while these levels can also function as short-side targets for those looking to take on bearish exposure to Gold. If Gold prices slip below the $1,275 level, then the confluent zone around $1,250 becomes attractive for short-side profit targets."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download).
Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.20 11:18

Gold - daily ranging bullish; 1,304 support is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud for the bullish ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 1,357 resistance level located in the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 1,304 support level located in the beginning of the secondary correction to be started.

Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the possible correction to be started.


  • "Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 66.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.96 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 6.9% higher than yesterday and 8.5% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.7% lower than yesterday and 8.4% lower from last week."
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:


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