Forecast and levels for NZD - page 4

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.24 17:22

Intra-Day Fundamentals - NZD/USD, Dollar Index and GOLD (XAU/USD): U.S. Jobless Claims

2017-08-24 13:30 GMT | [USD - Unemployment Claims]

if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

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From rttnews article :

  • "A report released by the Labor Department on Thursday showed a modest uptick in first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits in the week ended August 19th."
  • "The report said initial jobless claims inched up to 234,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 232,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to rise to 238,000."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events


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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events


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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events



 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.30 17:43

Intra-Day Fundamentals - NZD/USD and Dollar Index: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2017-08-30 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

  • past data is 2.6%
  • forecast data is 2.0%
  • actual data is 3.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.2 percent."
  • "The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events



 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.08 16:17

NZD/USD - daily bullish; 0.7293/0.7344 are the keys (based on the article)

Daily price was bounced from 200-SMA at 0.7130 resistance to above for the bullish market condition to be resumed. The price is testing the resistance levels at  0.7293/0.7344 for the bullish to be continuing.


  • "The New Zealand Dollar looks to be tracing out a choppy down trend after completing a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern, signaling a top in place against its US cousin. The move lower is confined within an emerging falling channel originating in mid-to-late August."
  • "Near-term support is now at 0.7163, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that opening the door for another test of the August 31 low at 0.7132. Alternatively, a daily close above 0.7264 that takes out the channel top and the September 5 high exposes the 38.2% Fib retracement at 0.7295 next."


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.13 09:56

NZD/USD - daily bullish resumed (based on the article)

Daily price was bounced from 200 SMA level at 0.7130 to above for the primary bullish trend to be resumed. The price is breaking 0.7293 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "The New Zealand Dollar has seemingly invalidated a bearish Head and Shoulders chart formation against its US namesake but scope for recovery may be limited. Polling data ahead of the general election on September 23 pushed prices higher but gains might prove corrective in the context of a longer-term decline. Sizing up current positioning, a daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7307 opens the door for a test of the 38.2% level at 0.7415. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 14.6% Fib at 0.7240 paves the way for another challenge of the August 31 low at 0.7132."
  • "The short NZD/USD trade from 0.7230 has been stopped out. The tepid move higher from the August 31 low may yet amount to a bearish Flag pattern preceding continuation of the decline from the July 27 swing top. Confirmation is absent for now however, arguing against re-entering short at this time."


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.18 12:19

NZD/USD - intra-day breakout with the bullish reversal; 0.7343 is the key (based on the article)

Intra-day price on H4 chart was bounced from 0.7212 support level to above for the bullish reversal by breaking Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price is testing 0.7343 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "The New Zealand Dollar invalidated would-be a down trend resumption signal to try its luck above 0.73 against its US counterpart once more. Recent gains may yet prove to be corrective, but sellers have struggled to sustain momentum ahead of the upcoming general election on September 23."
  • "The short NZD/USD trade activated at 0.7219 has been stopped out. Prices are now too close to resistance to make entering long viable from a risk/reward perspective while the absence of a clear-cut bearish reversal signal argues against re-entering short. On balance, that makes the sidelines seem most attractive."

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.23 19:28

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for NZD/USD (based on the article)


NZD/USD - "The New Zealand dollar remains bid ahead of the election as opinion polls show Prime Minister Bill English as the favored candidate, but fresh remarks from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may sway the near-term outlook for NZD/USD as the central bank appears to be on course to preserve the record-low cash rate throughout 2017. Despite the change in leadership, Deputy Governor Grant Spencer may strike a similar tone as his predecessor, Graeme Wheeler, as ‘numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly.’ As a result, the, the RBNZ is widely expected to retain the current policy at the September 28 meeting and the central bank may merely attempt to buy more time as ‘GDP in the March quarter was lower than expected, adding to the softening in growth observed at the end of 2016.’ It seems as though the RBNZ will continue to lag behind its U.S. counterpart as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) shows a greater willingness to implement another rate-hike in 2017, and the kiwi-dollar exchange rate may exhibit a bearish behavior going into the end of the month should Deputy Governor Spencer and Co. tame expectations for higher borrowing-costs."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.28 07:30

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Official Cash Rate and range price movement 

2017-09-27 21:00 GMT | [NZD - Official Cash Rate]

  • past data is 1.75%
  • forecast data is 1.75%
  • actual data is 1.75% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[NZD - Official Cash Rate] = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight. 

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From official report :

  • "The Reserve Bank today left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 1.75 percent."
  • "Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by RBNZ Official Cash Rate news event 


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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.29 07:26

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Building Permits and range price movement 

2017-09-28 22:45 GMT | [NZD - Building Consents]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Building Consents] = Change in the number of new building approvals issued. 

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From official report :

  • "The seasonally adjusted number of new dwellings consented rose 10 percent (following a 1.7 percent rise in July). For houses only, the seasonally adjusted number fell 0.8 percent (following an 8.8 percent rise in July)."
  • "In the year ended August 2017, 30,736 new dwellings were consented – up 3.7 percent from the August 2016 year."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by New Zealand Building Permits news event 


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Chart was made on MT4 using 5 day Breakout - indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).


 

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NZD/USD analysis

Tam Nguyen Van, 2017.10.02 11:42

Strategy NZD/USD

Entry:SELL at 0.721x

Stoploss:0.725x

Takeprofit:TP1:0.714X

                  TP2:0.710X

S1 0.7132 S R3 0.7434 S

S2 0.7054 M R2 0.7355 M

S3 0.6958 M R1 0.7242 M


Chart NZDUSDc, H1, 2017.10.02 09:35 UTC, Exness Ltd., MetaTrader 4, Real

 

ok Sergey Golubev

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