Forecast and levels for CAD - page 2

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.12 10:13

USD/CAD and Brent Crude Oil - USD/CAD for the bullish continuation with Brent Crude Oil for the bearish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud for the bullish market condition with the ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels:

  • 1.3793 resistance located the beginning of the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 1.3641 support level located in the beginning of the secondary correction to be started.

There is good correlation with Brent Crude Oil chart so if USD/CAD is continuing with the bullish trend so we may see Brent Oil daily price to be reversed to the primary bearish condition.


  • "The bid in Crude Oil over the last few sessions has been welcomed news for CAD longs, which benefit when USD/CAD falls. However, the news out of the energy market may not stay supportive for long. On Thursday, OPEC raised their 2017 estimate of supply growth from non-OPEC producers (i.e., US Shale) by 46%, which is a direct threat to the supply curbs put in place by OPEC and Russia and expected to be extended to help rebalance the market. While there has been a bounce in Crude Oil over the last few sessions, hopeful bulls should be reminded we traded at 5-month lows last week, and we continue to get information showing that global demand may be falling, not rising as total supply is not falling as much as originally planned. "
  • "Despite the recent concerns, USD/CAD has yet to trade above the May 5 and 2017 high of 1.3793. However, the recent volatile price action and discouraging undertones for drivers of CAD value may favor further CAD weakness and USD/CAD upside. The short-term zone of support for the uptrend is 1.3598 (December 28 high) and 1.3875 (38.2% retracement of the April-May range.) Should the price continue to close above this zone on a daily basis, the current sideways price action is preferred to be seen as a precursor before a move to new 2017 highs and toward the long-term target of 1.3838 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2016 range.)"

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This technical analysis was provided with the following indicators from CodeBase:

  1. MFCS Currency Correlation Chart - indicator for MetaTrader 5
  2. MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5 
  3. ColorParabolic_Alert - indicator for MetaTrader 5
  4. BrainTrend2Sig - indicator for MetaTrader 5 (and same indicator with alert)
  5. Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
  6. TrendlinesDay - indicator for MetaTrader 5

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.29 07:07

Weekly USD/CAD Outlook: 2017, May 28 - June 04 (based on the article)

The Canadian posted gains for a second straight week, as USD/CAD lost 80 points. The pair closed the week at 1.3440. This week’s key event is GDP.


  1. Current Account: Tuesday, 12:30. The deficit for Q1 is expected to rise to C$11.4 billion.
  2. RMPI: Tuesday, 12:30. This index measures inflation in the manufacturing sector. The indicator continues to weaken and came in at -1.6% in March, a sharper drop than expected.
  3. GDP: Wednesday, 12:30. The March estimate stands at 0.3%.
  4. Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 13:30. 
  5. Trade Balance: Friday, 12:30. Little change is predicted for the April release, with a forecast of C$0.0 billion.
  6. Labor Productivity: Friday, 12:30. The estimate for Q1 stands at 0.2%.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.02 15:00

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD: Non-Farm Employment Change

2017-06-02 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Payrolls]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Payrolls] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report:

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 138,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported  today. Job gains occurred in health care and mining."
  • "The unemployment rate, at 4.3 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.9 million, changed little in May. Since January, the unemployment rate has declined by 0.5 percentage point, and the number of unemployed has decreased by 774,000."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.09 15:12

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Employment Change and range price movement 

2017-06-09 13:30 GMT | [CAD - Employment Change]

  • past data is 3.2K
  • forecast data is 11.5K
  • actual data is 54.5K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month. 

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From winnipegfreepress article:

  • "Unemployment rate: 6.6 per cent (6.5).""Employment rate: 61.5 per cent (61.4)."
  • "Labour force participation rate: 65.8 per cent (65.6)."
  • "Number unemployed: 1,288,900 (1,265,000)."
  • "Number working: 18,365,700 (18,311,200)."

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada Employment Change news event


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.23 14:47

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2017-06-23 13:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]

  • past data is 0.4%
  • forecast data is 0.2%
  • actual data is 0.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Official Cash Rate] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. 

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From official report :

  • "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.3% on a year-over-year basis in May, following a 1.6% gain in April."
  • "Excluding food and energy, the CPI was up 1.4% on a year-over-year basis in May, after posting a 1.5% increase in April."

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada's Consumer Price Index news event


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.27 19:17

USD/CAD: 1.3190 is the key; Brent Crude Oil: 44.34 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is below ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart for the ranging within the following s/r levels:

  • 1.3347 resistance level for the secondary bear market rally to be started, and
  • 1.3190 support level for the bearish trend to be continuing.

The USD/CAD price is testing 1.3190 to below (and Brent Crude Oil daily price is testing 44.34) so the bearish trend will be resumed.


  • "The rebound in the price of Crude Oil after retesting a long-term support zone near $43/bbl may come at a great time for CAD bulls. The Canadian Dollar has strengthened aggressively, sinking USD/CAD like a stone since May 5, and a boost was recently given when Bank of Canada members Wilkins and Poloz lauded the surprising growth of the economy despite Oil's weakness. After these comments, the markets began to price in a rate hike in 2017 for the Bank of Canada, and a swing of commodity momentum could boost that swing further still."
  • "A break below 1.3165 would increase the odds that we'll see a move to 1.2970, which is the 2017 low that we traded at in February. The wildcard, of course, will be the US Dollar that is the proud owner of a flattening yield curve that could signal waning confidence in future growth as the market is beginning to price is a more hawkish Bank of Canada. Resistance remains at the June 21 high of 1.3347. A close above this level would favor holding off and looking for better levels to sell."


 

USDCAD Monthly and Weekly S&R


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.30 14:52

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2017-06-30 13:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. 

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From official report :

  • "After increasing 0.5% in March, real gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.2% in April as 14 out of 20 sectors grew."
  • "Service-producing industries increased 0.3% on widespread growth across sectors. Goods-producing industries were essentially unchanged as growth in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction was largely offset by a decline in manufacturing."

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada's Gross Domestic Product news event


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.02 18:14

Weekly USD/CAD Outlook: 2017, July 02 - July 09 (based on the article)

The Canadian dollar sparkled last week, as USD/CAD plunged 300 points. The pair closed at 1.2946, its lowest weekly close since August 2016. This week’s key event is Employment Change. 


  1. Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 9:30. The indicator continues to point to expansion in the manufacturing sector, but dipped to 55.1 in May. Will the index rebound in the June report?
  2. Trade Balance: Thursday, 8:30. This was weaker than the estimate of C$0.0 billion.
  3. Building Permits: Thursday, 8:30. In April, the indicator declined 0.2%, well off the forecast of +2.4%.
  4. Employment Change: Friday, 8:30. This is the key event of the month. In May, the indicator sparkled with a gain of 54.5 thousand, crushing the forecast of 11.5 thousand. Will we see another strong gain in June? The unemployment rate remained at 6.6% in May, matching the forecast.
  5. Ivey PMI: Friday, 10:00.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.08 16:58

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CAD (based on the article)


USD/CAD - "There has been plenty of disagreement among analysts over whether the Bank of Canada will increase its overnight rate to 0.75% from 0.5% on July 12. As I reported here, a rate rise was once seen as almost certain after hawkish comments by BoC Governor Stephen Poloz but doubts then set in. Moreover, there was a rise of 45,300 in employment, well above the expected 10,000 though below the previous 54,500 increase. The reaction in the Canadian Dollar was a sharp rise against its US counterpart as traders argued that the economy – or at least the labor market – is clearly now strong enough to withstand a quarter-point rate hike."


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