Press review - page 527

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Gov Lowe Speaks and range price movement 

2017-06-19 00:30 GMT | [AUD - RBA Gov Lowe Speaks]

• past data is n/a
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[AUD - RBA Gov Lowe Speaks] = Speech in a panel discussion at the Crawford Australian Leadership Forum, in Canberra. 

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From official report :

• "In Australia, it is likely that growth over the next couple of years will be a bit stronger than it has been recently."
• "As we search for the reforms that will make a difference, we need to be aware that the drivers of growth in our economy are changing. Natural resources remain our main export earner, but Australians are increasingly employed in service industries. Right across the spectrum, competitive advantage is increasingly built on technology and management capability. This trend is not going to go away and we need to capitalise on it. There is no magic solution. But, as I said before, the central ingredient lies in investment in human capital. If we are to grow strongly in the future, then that growth will be built just as much on the quality of our ideas as it is on the quality of our natural resources."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Gov Lowe Speaks news event

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: FOMC Member Evans Speaks and range price movement 

2017-06-19 23:15 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Evans Speaks]

• past data is n/a
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[USD - FOMC Member Evans Speaks] = Speech about current economic conditions and monetary policy at the New York University Money Marketeers event.

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From official report :

• "As you know, the Committee voted to increase the target range for the federal funds rate to 1 to 1-1/4 percent. In the most recent Summary of Economic Projections, the median participant thought that appropriate policy would incorporate one more 25 basis point rate hike in 2017—bringing the total for this year to three—and then three more increases in each of 2018 and 2019. And as Chair Yellen stated in her press conference’s opening remarks, the Committee expects to begin gradually reducing the size of the Fed’s balance sheet sometime this year."
• "It remains to be seen whether there will be two rate hikes this year, or three, or four—or exactly when we start paring back reinvestments of maturing assets. Regardless, the important feature is that the current environment supports very gradual rate hikes and slow preset reductions in our balance sheet."
• "And given we may be facing more elevated ZLB risks for some time, risk-management considerations argue for tilting toward accommodative policies that help reduce the risk of returning to the ZLB."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by China Industrial Output news event

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and range price movement 

2017-06-20 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

• past data is n/a
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = Detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

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From official report :

• "That said, there were some notable details: an intriguing new paragraph on financial stability in the ‘Considerations for Monetary Policy’ section; a slightly more bullish/hawkish discussion of international conditions; and several useful snippets from the detailed discussion including those gleaned from the Bank’s liaison programme."
• "As per the Governor’s decision statement, the slower growth picture for the March quarter was acknowledged but attributed to “quarter to quarter variation” with the Bank’s positive medium term outlook for growth to rise to a little above 3% reaffirmed."
• "The labour market commentary in the minutes was perhaps a little more positive than in the Governor’s statement which explicitly described indicators as “mixed”. The minutes do not use this particular term although the rest of the discussion is the same. Note that the RBA meeting took place well before the surprisingly strong May labour force report released last Thursday."
• "Monetary policy clearly remains firmly on hold as the Board assesses developments in housing and labour markets. The strong May labour force report released the week after the Bank’s June meeting would have eased some of its concerns on this front, although weak wages growth is likely still a factor (indeed this is one aspect of current conditions that could have received more discussion in the minutes which simply noted the link to consumer incomes and spending). It may also be becoming more comfortable around housing market risks as well although the situation here is clearly still evolving."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBNZ Official Cash Rate and range price movement 

2017-06-21 22:00 GMT | [NZD - Official Cash Rate]

• past data is 1.75%
• forecast data is 1.75%
• actual data is 1.75% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Official Cash Rate] = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight. 

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From official report :

• "The Reserve Bank today left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 1.75 percent."
• "GDP growth in the March quarter was lower than expected, with weaker export volumes and residential construction partially offset by stronger consumption.  Nevertheless, the growth outlook remains positive, supported by accommodative monetary policy, strong population growth, and high terms of trade.  Recent changes announced inBudget 2017 should support the outlook for growth."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by RBNZ Official Cash Rate news event

[Sergey Golubev]

What Does The Bear Market In Oil Tell Us (based on the article)

H4 price is on bearish market condition located below Ichimoku cloud. If the price breaks 44.52 support level to below so the primary bearish trend will be continuing, otherwise - bearish ranging within the levels.

• "Oil prices officially re-entered a bear market on Tuesday (defined by a decline of -20% below a recent high) as global demand remains tepid and supply remains stubbornly high. Economics 101 tells us that commodity prices are a function of supply and demand. All things being equal, prices go up when demand is strong and supply is stable or low. Conversely, prices fall when demand is low and supply is high. Since the 2008 crash, oil prices have never fully recovered because global demand has remained weak and supply continues to grow."
• "Harry E. Morad, Managing Partner Pine Valley Investments, said, "It would be fair to argue that credit risk is being discounted within the high yield markets. If energy prices continue to fall, then years of asset managers aggressively seeking out yield may be the catalyst for a short term selloff, or worse, a sustained bear market. However, protecting downside exposure with a put strategy is a cost effective way to stay invested in a resilient market that may shrug off yet another risk."

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - Brexit is "huge mistake" and  minimizing negative impact; daily price is on bullish ranging near bearish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels:

• 1.1212 resistance located in the beginning of the bullish trend to be resumed with 1.1299 nearest daily bullish target, and
• 1.1118 support level located on the border between the primary bullish and the ranging bearish trend on the chart.

If the price breaks 1.1118 support to below on daily close bar so the bearish reversal will be started with the ranging way: the price will be inside Ichimoku cloud with 1.0922 target for the fully bearish reversal.

• "The European Central Bank will decide to wind down its government bond purchases based on inflation even if the spreads for any country would rise as a consequence, ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet said."
• "Heavily indebted Eurozone countries such as Italy, Spain and Portugal risk facing rising borrowing costs once the ECB starts winding down its EUR 2.3 trillion asset purchase scheme."
• "Regarding Brexit, Praet called it a "huge mistake" and stressed that it was extremely important that an agreement is reached between the UK and the European Union."

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2017-06-23 13:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]

• past data is 0.4%
• forecast data is 0.2%
• actual data is 0.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Official Cash Rate] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. 

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From official report :

• "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.3% on a year-over-year basis in May, following a 1.6% gain in April."
• "Excluding food and energy, the CPI was up 1.4% on a year-over-year basis in May, after posting a 1.5% increase in April."

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada's Consumer Price Index news event

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. New Home Sales and range price movement 

2017-06-23 15:00 GMT | [USD - New Home Sales]

• past data is 593K
• forecast data is 599K
• actual data is 610K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - New Home Sales] = Annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous months. 

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From rttnews article :

• "New home sales in the U.S. rebounded in May after a sharp pullback in the previous month, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Friday. The Commerce Department said new home sales climbed by 2.9 percent to an annual rate of 610,000 in May from the upwardly revised April rate of 593,000."
• "The Commerce Department also said the median sales price of new houses sold in May was $345,800, up 11.5 percent from $310,200 in April and up 16.8 percent from $296,000 in the same month a year ago."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. New Home Sales news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Brent Crude Oil - waiting for recovery (based on the article)

Daily price is below 200 SMA in the bullish area for the ranging within 44.34 support and 46.62 resistance. Breaking 44.34 level to below will lead to the bearish trend to be continuing, and if the price crosses 46.62 resistance to above so the secondary bear market rally will be started with47.73/48.80 nearesttarget to re-enter.

• "The optimism that permeated the commodity markets due to OPEC’s resolve to rebalance the oversupplied oil markets has now turned into some pessimism. After moving past the $55-per-barrel mark for the first in the last 20 months in February of this year, crude oil prices have plunged back to under $45 per barrel of late. This collapse is largely driven the rise in U.S. oil production and inventories, as the sudden recovery in oil prices made it economically viable for U.S. shale producers to expand their output. Additionally, the global rig count, more specifically the North American rig count, has been expanding sharply, indicating that the U.S. oil output is likely to swell even further in the forthcoming months. Further, per the latest data, the OPEC members, particularly Nigeria, Libya, and Iraq, have ramped up their output in the last month, raising questions about the effectiveness of the oil cartel’s production quotas. This could imply that despite the OPEC’s efforts to curb its oil supply, and in turn, stabilize oil prices, the oil prices are likely to remain depressed over the short term."
• "One of the positive outcomes of the ongoing commodity slump has been the reduction in the operating costs of most U.S. shale producers. While a dozen of these companies have been pushed out of the market in the last two years, a few of them, such as EOG Resources and ConocoPhillips - who have continued to optimize their cost structures and invest in innovative technologies to enhance their operational and capital efficiency - have managed to bring down their break-even oil price from over $80 per barrel in 2014 to under $40 per barrel at present. This has motivated independent oil and gas producers, such as Chesapeake and Anadarko Petroluem, to build extensive plans to grow their production by 10%-15% annually over the remaining years of this decade."

[Sergey Golubev]

DJIA and S&P 500: breaking new high (based on the article)

"The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the German DAX are the only three major averages around the globe to set new all-time intraday highs this week, and they did so on June 19 or June 20. All nine indexes have positive weekly charts. Overbought readings are noted on the Dow 30, S&P 500, the Nasdaq, the Nikkei 225, India’s Nifty 50 and the German DAX. Dow Transports, Russell 2000 and the Shanghai Composite have rising momentum readings."

"The Dow Jones Industrial Average (21,397.29 on June 22) set an all-time intraday high of 21,535.03 on June 20, and has a positive but overbought weekly chart. Reduce holdings on strength to my monthly and annual risky levels of 21,987 and 22,041, respectively. My quarterly value level lags at 19,189."

"The S&P 500 (2,434.15 on June 22) set an all-time intraday high of 2,453.82 on June 19, and has a positive but overbought weekly chart. Reduce holdings on strength to my monthly and annual risky levels of 2,448.8 and 2,537.9, respectively. Note that the monthly level has been tested as a warning. My quarterly value level lags at 2,225.2."