Press review - page 523

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, Dollar Index and GOLD (XAU/USD): ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

2017-06-01 13:15 GMT | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 174K
• forecast data is 180K
• actual data is 253K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change] = The indicator characterizes the labor market and industrial sector activity to assess the economic development in the country. Employment growth exceeding the predicted value is seen as positive for the US dollar.

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From official report:

• "Private sector employment increased by 253,000 jobs from April to May according to the May ADP National Employment Report® . Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis."

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news events

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news events

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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news events

[Sergey Golubev]

Fundamental Forecasts: Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings from the majors financial institutions (the source):

[Sergey Golubev]

Sergey Golubev:

Fundamental Forecasts: Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings from the majors financial institutions (the source):

And as I see - 

Forex-Factory forum calendar forecast:

News Event	Forecast
Non-Farm Employment Change	181K
Unemployment Rate	4.4%
Average Hourly Earnings	0.2%

MQL5 Calendar forecast:

News Event	Forecast
Non-Farm Employment Change	174K
Unemployment Rate	4.4%
Average Hourly Earnings	0.1%

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD: Non-Farm Employment Change

2017-06-02 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Payrolls]

• past data is 174K
• forecast data is 181K
• actual data is 138K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Payrolls] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report:

• "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 138,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported  today. Job gains occurred in health care and mining."
• "The unemployment rate, at 4.3 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.9 million, changed little in May. Since January, the unemployment rate has declined by 0.5 percentage point, and the number of unemployed has decreased by 774,000."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2017, June 04 - June 11 (based on the article)

The US dollar was on the back foot throughout most of the week as data remained mixed and speculation about the Fed decision mounts. A rate decision in Australia, the ECB’s critical decision and the UK elections stand out in the first full week of June. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.

1. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 14:00. A score of 57.3 is predicted now.
2. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 4:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia last changed interest rates in August but has adopted a neutral stance since then. The Cash Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 1.50% for another month and the Aussie will move on the tone of the statement. On one hand, the Australian economy is doing fine, with solid jobs growth and consumption. However, worries about China weigh on the outlook. In the past, the RBA took advantage of downfalls in the exchange rate to push the currency even lower. Will they hit the A$ when it’s down once again?
3. US JOLTS Job Openings: Tuesday, 14:00. If the Federal Reserve needs yet another jobs report in order to make its decision, the number of job openings serves as a hint. Despite being a laggard (the data is for April against May for the NFP), the publication still moves the needle as the Fed eyes it. In March, job opening stood at 5.74 million annualized. A small slide to 5.65 million is on the cards.
4. Australian GDP: Wednesday, 1:30. A growth rate of 0.3% is projected.
5. Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30. The weekly measure of oil inventories has an immediate impact on oil prices but also reflects on the global economy. Lower supply and marginally higher demand pushed inventories lower, helping oil prices stabilize.
6. UK elections: Thursday-Friday. The full results should be clear before European markets open at 7:00 GMT.
7. ECB rate decision: Thursday, the decision is at 11:45, Draghi’s press conference at 12:30. 
8. Canadian jobs report: Friday, 12:30.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, June 04 - June 11 (based on the article)

EUR/USD made an attempt to move higher but never went too far. The highlight of the upcoming week is the ECB decision. Will Draghi upgrade the assessment? Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.

1. Services PMIs: Tuesday: 7:15 for Spain, 7:45 for Italy, final French figure at 7:50, final German release at 7:55 and the final euro-zone number is published at 8:00.
2. Sentix Investor Confidence: Tuesday, 8:30. This 2800-strong survey beat expectations in recent months and was on the march to the upside. After hitting a score of 27.4 in May, the figure for June could be a bit higher.
3. Retail Sales: Tuesday, 9:00. We now get the April data.
4. German Factory Orders: Wednesday, 6:00. Volatility is not uncommon in this measure.
5. GDP: Wednesday, 9:00. According to the previous estimates, the euro-zone economy grew by 0.5% in Q1 2017. Since that read, we had an upgrade of GDP from France. Will the euro-zone GDP be upgraded as well?
6. German Industrial Production: Thursday, 6:00.
7. French Trade Balance: Thursday, 6:45. France’s trade deficit had already narrowed last year, but it had widened once again, reaching 5.4 billion in March.
8. ECB rate decision: Thursday, the decision is at 11:45, Draghi’s press conference at 12:30. Will the ECB stop seeing risks as tilted to the downside?
9. German CPI (final): Friday, 6:00.The figure will likely be confirmed.
10. German Trade Balance: Friday, 6:00. This surplus reached 19.6 billion euros in March.
11. French Industrial Production: Friday, 6:45.

[Sergey Golubev]

Which currency pair to trade (based on the article)

The #1 Factor to Use in Deciding Which Pair(s) to Trade

1. "Another crucial factor is trend, or momentum (they are essentially the same thing). The major currencies such as the U.S. Dollar, Euro and Japanese Yen, have, in recent years, shown a greater probability to move in the direction of their long-term trends. One good rule of thumb in trading major currency pairs is asking yourself, is the price higher or lower than it was 3 and 6 months ago, and trading mostly or entirely in the same direction as any long-term movement, if it exists."
2. "If you are trading only during Asian business hours, you will probably find that your best opportunities will involve Asian currencies such as the Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar. I urge you to consider whether you can develop a method to trade longer time horizons, as otherwise you could be missing other opportunities while you are asleep, the same way I missed out on USD/JPY opportunities in 2012. If I had the wisdom to trade daily charts back then, I could have profited from that big movement in the Yen very easily, even at night while I was asleep, with traders in Tokyo doing the heavy lifting for me!"
3. "Finally, if you watch an economic calendar to see when the major central bank or most important economic data releases are scheduled for the major currencies, you can see that if you are in a trade before those releases, those releases might provide you with the volatility you need to turn your trade into a big winner, or at least show you where some volatility is likely to appear."

[Sergey Golubev]

Hang Seng Index (HSI) - daily bullish; 25,792 resistance is the key (adapted from the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is testing ascending triangle pattern together with 25,792 resistance to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.

• "Business conditions in Hong Kong slowed in May, the latest survey from Nikkei revealed on Monday with a PMI score of 50.5."
• "That's down from 51.1 in April, although it remains above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction."

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Services PMI and range price movement 

2017-06-05 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Services PMI]

• past data is 55.8
• forecast data is 55.1
• actual data is 53.8 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Services PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry. 

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From official report:

• "The headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS Services PMI® Business Activity Index registered 53.8 in May, to remain above the 50.0 no-change value for the tenth consecutive month. However, the index dropped from 55.8 in April and signalled the slowest expansion of service sector output since February. Anecdotal evidence from survey respondents mainly cited weaker new business growth in May. "
• "Looking ahead, service sector firms are relatively upbeat about their growth prospects, with around 44% expecting a rise in business activity over the year ahead and only 8% anticipating a decline. Business optimism was linked to new product initiatives, hopes of a resilient UK economic backdrop and rising demand from overseas clients."

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by K Services PMI news event

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Rate Statement and Cash Rate, and range price movement 

2017-06-06 05:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

• past data is 1.50%
• forecast data is 1.50%
• actual data is 1.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries. 

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From official report:

• "At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent."
• "The broad-based pick-up in the global economy is continuing. Labour markets have tightened further in many countries and forecasts for global growth have been revised up since last year. Above-trend growth is expected in a number of advanced economies, although uncertainties remain. In China, growth is being supported by increased spending on infrastructure and property construction, with the high level of debt continuing to present a medium-term risk. Commodity prices are generally higher than they were a year ago, providing a boost to Australia's national income. The prices of iron ore and coal, however, have declined over recent months as expected, unwinding some of the earlier increases."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event