Press review - page 507

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Consumer Price Index and 26 pips range price movement 

2017-04-12 02:30 GMT | [CNY - CPI]

• past data is 0.8%
• forecast data is 1.1%
• actual data is 0.9% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From rttnews article:

• "Consumer prices in China were up 0.9 percent on year in March, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday."
• "That was shy of expectations for 1.0 percent, but it was still up from 0.8 percent in February."

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USD/CNH M5: 26 pips range price movement by China Consumer Price Index news event

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Bank of Canada Overnight Rate and range price movement 

2017-04-12 15:00 GMT | [CAD - Overnight Rate]

• past data is 0.50%
• forecast data is 0.50%
• actual data is 0.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Overnight Rate] = Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves.

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From official report:

• "The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent."
• "The Bank’s Governing Council acknowledges the strength of recent data, some of which is temporary, and is mindful of the significant uncertainties weighing on the outlook. In this context, Governing Council judges that the current stance of monetary policy is still appropriate and maintains the target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent."

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by BoC Overnight Rate news event

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Employment Change and 47 pips range price movement 

2017-04-13 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

• past data is 2.8K
• forecast data is 20.3K
• actual data is 60.9K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

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From rttnews article:

• "Employment increased 60,900 to 12,059,600. Full-time employment increased 74,500 to 8,238,600 and part-time employment decreased 13,600 to 3,821,000."
• "Unemployment increased 4,000 to 753,100. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work increased 2,900 to 528,600 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work increased 1,100 to 224,500."
• "Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.9%."

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AUD/USD M5: 47 pips range price movement by Australian Employment Change news event

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and range price movement 

2017-04-13 15:00 GMT | [USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment]

• past data is 96.9
• forecast data is 97.1
• actual data is 98.0 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers.

==========

From official report:

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by UoM Consumer Sentiment news event

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: ranging near Senkou Span waiting for the bearish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price is located near and above Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price is going to be tested with descending triangle pattern together with 1.0569 support level to below for the bearish reversal to be started, otherwise - bullish ranging waiting for direction.

"Since the start of the year, EUR/USD daily RSI has oscillated between 60 and 40 (nothing above 70 or below 30). This ‘RSI profile’ indicates range conditions. At some point, these range conditions will break and a trend will emerge. When is that ‘some point’? I don’t know but it’s probably soon because this feeling of peak frustration is typical before a sizeable move. Price wise, a short term trendline is being put to the test. If it breaks, then short term focus is towards the year open at 1.0466 and maybe a lot lower given the 3 wave rally from the January low."

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/JPY: U.S. Consumer Price Index

2017-04-14 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

• past data is 0.1%
• forecast data is 0.0%
• actual data is -0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report:

• "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.3 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment."

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EUR/USD M5: 18 pips range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news events

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USD/JPY M5: 28 pips range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news events

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2017, April 16 - April 23 (based on the article)

The dollar lost ground in the lead up to the long Easter weekend. Will it continue? A mix of figures from all over the world awaits us now.

1. Haruhiko Kuroda speaks: Monday, 7:15. BOE Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will speak in Tokyo.
2. US Building Permits: Tuesday, 13:30. The number of permits is expected to rise to 1.25 million this time.
3. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30.
4. New Zealand inflation data: Wednesday, 23:45. CPI is expected to rise 0.8% in the first quarter of 2017.
5. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 13:30. The manufacturing index is expected to decline to 25.6 in April.
6. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of new claims is expected to reach 241,000 this week.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, April 16 - April 23 (based on the article)

EUR/USD managed to rebound from the lows ahead of Easter, getting back to the range. Will it stay there? Inflation figures and PMIs stand out ahead of the French elections.

1. CPI (final): Wednesday, 9:00. A higher surplus is likely now.
2. German PPI: Thursday, 6:00.
3. Flash PMIs: Friday morning: 7:00 for France, 7:30 for Germany and 8:00 for the whole euro-zone.
4. Current Account: Friday, 8:00. Similar to the trade balance, the euro-zone enjoys a current account surplus. And also here, it narrowed in January and stood at 24.1 billion after 30.8 beforehand.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "The markets need only to weigh these considerations for them to begin shaping US Dollar price action. In this scenario, the rebuilding of Fed rate hike expectations may see the benchmark currency return to the offensive. A reasonably solid Beige Book – the central bank’s assessment of regional economic conditions that informs its policy decisions – may help matters."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)

USD/JPY - "BoJ Governor Kuroda warned the central bank will remove the non-standard measures once it reaches the 2% target for inflation, and went onto say that a further deprecation in the Yen would make it easier to achieve the goal as the economy stands at full-employment. Even though the BoJ keeps the door open to further embark on its easing-cycle, the comments suggest the BoJ is in no rush to implement more unprecedented measures, and the central bank may toughen the verbal intervention on the local currency as officials strive to achieve the inflation-target over the policy horizon."