Press review - page 515

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's International Merchandise Trade and range price movement 

2017-05-04 13:30 GMT | [CAD - Trade Balance]

• past data is -1.1B
• forecast data is 0.3B
• actual data is -0.1B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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From official report:

• "Canada's merchandise trade balance with the world posted a $135 million deficit in March, narrowing from a $1.1 billion deficit in February. Exports rose 3.8% in March to a record high $47.0 billion, due to stronger exports of energy products and consumer goods. Imports were up 1.7% to $47.1 billion, mainly on higher imports of unwrought gold."

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canadian Trade Balance news event

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Inflation Expectations and 20 pips range price movement 

2017-05-05 04:00 GMT | [NZD - Inflation Expectations]

• past data is 1.9%
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is 2.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Inflation Expectations] = Percentage that business managers expect the price of goods and services to change annually during the next 2 years.

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From official report:

• "One-year-ahead inflation expectations have increased to 1.92% from 1.56%. The median also increased to 2.00% from 1.50%. The two-year-ahead expectations had a 0.25 percentage point increase to 2.17% while the median increased to 2.20% from 2.00%."

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NZD/USD M5: 20 pips range price movement by New Zealand Inflation Expectations news event

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Reserve Bank of Australia Statement on Monetary Policy and range price movement 

2017-05-05 02:30 GMT | [AUD - RBA Monetary Policy Statement]

• past data is n/a
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[AUD - RBA Monetary Policy Statement] = It provides valuable insight into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation - the key factors that will shape the future of monetary policy and influence their interest rate decisions.

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From official report:

• "The Bank has been expecting for some time that inflation will increase gradually over the period ahead, to be above 2 per cent. Recent data have been consistent with this expectation. Headline inflation in the March quarter was a little above 2 per cent and is now expected to be between 2 and 3 per cent throughout the forecast period. Underlying inflation increased in the March quarter, to around 1¾ per cent. It is expected to increase further, to be around 2 per cent in early 2018. These forecasts are little changed from the previous Statement on Monetary Policy"
• "The March quarter inflation data were in line with the forecasts in the February Statement. Measures of underlying inflation were steady at around ½ per cent in the quarter, and picked up to 1¾ per cent over the year."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Statement news event

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD - daily bullish ranging for direction (based on the article)

Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud for the primary bullish market condition with the narrow ranging within the bullish continuation resistance level at 1.2964 and correctional support level at  1.2774.

• "We looked at the range that had developed in GBP/USD after the aggressive top-side breakout, triggered by PM Theresa May’s surprise announcement of early general elections. And this driver is key – as this happened just two days after the first round of French elections. After market open following the first round of French elections, the risk trade saw a significant shot-higher. Meanwhile, GBP/USD meandered between 1.2500 and 1.2593 but saw no major moves until Theresa May’s surprise announcement the following day."
• "Given the pair’s inability to set a high above 1.3000 and also given the near-term lower-lows that have begun to show-up with that bull flag formation, and bulls will likely want some additional confirmation before looking to add exposure. This can be done in two ways: by either a) waiting for a longer-term support level to show-up at which point buyer support could open the door to top-side entries with controlled risk. Or by b) letting price action break-above the ‘lower-high’ that substantiates the resistance trend-line of the bull flag, at which point that price could be re-assigned as ‘higher-low’ support with targets set towards 1.3000."

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) (adapted from the article)

• "The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may generate a mixed market reaction as the economy is anticipated to add 190K jobs in April, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to uptick to an annualized 4.6% from 4.5% the month prior. Moreover, household earnings are expected to hold steady at 2.7% per annum, and a lackluster labor report may fuel the near-term resilience in EUR/USD especially as market attention turns to the final around of the French election."
• "With Fed Fund Futures now pricing a greater than 70% probability for a June rate-hike, the fresh speech from Chair Janet Yellen may trigger a more meaningful reaction as market participants continue to gauge the timing and pace of the normalization cycle. A more detailed approach in unloading the Fed’s balance sheet may curb the recent advance in the euro-dollar exchange rate as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) adopts a more aggressive approach in normalizing monetary policy, but the event may fail to prop up the greenback should the central bank head merely try to buy more time."

Bearish USD Trade: Employment Report Shows U.S. Approaching Full-Employment

• "Need a green, five-minute candle following the NFP report to consider a long EUR/USD position."
• "If market reaction favors a bearish dollar trade, buy EUR/USD with two separate lots."
• "Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
• "Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit." 

Bullish USD Trade: NFP Expands 190K; Jobless Rate & Wage Growth Hold Steady

• "Need a red, five-minute EUR/USD candle to favor a long dollar position."
• "Carry out the same setup as the bearish dollar setup, just in reverse."

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart.

• If D1 price breaks 1.0986 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  
• If price breaks 61.8% Fibo support level at 1.0738 to below on close daily bar so we may see the bearish reversal of the daily price movement.
  
• If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Forecast for Q2'17 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.05 12:30

EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls news event

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD - intra-day correction to the possible bearish reversal (based on the article)

The price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: price was bounced from 1.3793 to below for the secondary correction to be started. Absolute Strength and Trend Strength indicators are evaluating the future trend as a correction or the bearish reversal, and Chinkou Span is crossing the historical price to below for good breakdown to be started in the near future: bearish reversal breakdown.

• "Much like the drop in Crude Oil over the last few weeks, the drop in the Canadian Dollar has been fast and furious. In mid-April, USD/CAD was trading near 1.3200 around the same time that Crude Oil was trading north of $53/bbl. Fast forward to the end of May’s first trading week and Crude Oil has an intraday low nearly 20% lower at $43, and the Canadian Dollar traded as low as $1.38 to the USD."
• "The correlation to CAD and Crude Oil is common knowledge even if the strength of the correlation ebbs and flows from month to month. This week, Crude Oil went from bad to worse as there appeared to be a capitulation of long trades that were exited as multiple forms of price support continued to break. The same seemed to happen for the Canadian Currency, which sat at or near the bottom of the G8 SW ranking for most of the week with the Japanese Yen and the Australian Dollar, which is also correlated to commodities like Iron Ore."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, May 07 - May 14 (based on the article)

EUR/USD edged higher ahead of the second round of the French elections. Does it have more room to the upside? Apart from the elections, we have GDP and other events from the old continent. 

1. French elections round 2: Sunday, exit polls are at 18:00 GMT and real results will trickle around the market open.
2. German Factory Orders: Monday, 6:00.
3. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 8:30. This business survey has advanced nicely in recent months, reaching 23.9 in April, beating expectations for the fourth consecutive month.
4. German Industrial Production: Tuesday, 6:00.
5. German Trade Balance: Tuesday, 6:00. 
6. French CPI (final): Tuesday, 6:45.
7. French Industrial Production: Tuesday, 6:45.
8. French Trade Balance: Wednesday, 6:45. 
9. ECB Economic Bulletin: Thursday, 8:00. Two weeks after Draghi was optimistic about growth but unsure about inflation, we will get more data from the central bank, the data they used for making their assessments.
10. EU Economic Forecasts: Thursday, 9:00.
11. German GDP: Friday, 6:00.
12. German CPI (final): Friday, 6:00. 
13. French Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 9:00. 
14. Industrial production: Friday, 9:00.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "The economic calendar is loaded with high-profile event risk. The PPI and CPI measures of inflation, retail sales statistics, and the May edition of the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey are all set to cross the wires. The Fed-speak docket is also busy, with eight policymakers scheduled to give ten separate speeches over five days (some will speak twice). This flood of fundamental news-flow might normally be expected to stoke substantial volatility. Timid price action following the payrolls print hints that may not be the case this time around. The Fed dismissed the first-quarter slowdown in US growth as “transitory”, so the bar for disappointment big enough to alter policy bets is extraordinarily high. Alternatively, upbeat results would just confirm what traders already know."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)

USD/JPY - "Next week brings no high-impact Japanese economic announcements. Geo-political risk can be a concern to the continuation of Yen-weakness, as a pick-up in risk aversion around French elections or U.S. politics could create temporary unwind of carry trades using the Yen as a funding currency. But outside of those risks or a larger overall market correction, the Japanese Yen could continue to weaken as the BoJ is one of the more dovish of the major Central Banks at the moment."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CAD (based on the article)

USD/CAD - "That followed news a fortnight earlier that Canadian inflation had slowed more than economists had forecast in March as food and clothing prices fell. Measures of core prices also declined, worsening Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz’s concerns that too much slack remains in the economy."