We are having a nasty ranging market full up of traps and what it should be a sell according to data turns up being a buy.
As I'm confident with catFX50, I'm going to tell you a story which I think it explains where the Achilles tendon of a trader is.
On Thursday, 2006-06-15 (22:00cet), I shorted (1 full lot) USDCAD at 1.1129. It made a low at 1.1108 ( 23:00cet) -I know, I know, it is not our trading time, but lets keep on with our story-.
I did not close the trade and I let it opened. On Friday, it made 4 times again a low of 1.1108. I did not close it. I though USDCAD would break that damn 1,1108 and would go to 1.1078/1.1060, where I had my taking profit. My stop was set from the beginning at 1.1164. On Friday, I lowered at 2 pips above pivot at 1.1140.
At 11:30cet (Friday), USDCAD hit my stop. It opened above EMA50. Histo kept in red mode. Ok, I was out with a lost of -11 pips. At 14:00cet, USDCAD had a rush (from 1.1138 to 1,1161) with aNina crossing with dot and green arrow and Hist in green. At 14:30cet, more strength. From 1,1138 first validated signal it went to 1.1250. This is +112 pips.
What do you think I did?
Did I took that buy?
Why didn't I close my short when I saw it couldn't break 1,1108?
Why didn't I lower my stop to b/e at least?
I didn't took that clear buy, because I thought USDCAD couldn't go up.
I did not lower my stop to b/e because I thought that short was a winning one.
I did not lower my stop because I thought it wanted to go to pivot and then reverse with fury.
This is the story.
I think it teaches a lot of things.
You touch on a very real point and I feel for your loss. The same thing has happened to me. The market can be a cruel mistress, just when you think you've gotten to know her, she'll turn on you.
I have to constantly remind myself to forget any assumptions I have about the market. Whenever I felt I knew what it was going to do I've lost too.
LoL . I see I'm not the only one victim of last week...
I think I will put a sign at the top of my LCD:
"WHEN U TRADE DONT THINK THAT U KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN! JUST WATCH YOUR TOOLS AND PUSH THE BUTTON"
I know Kalenzo, I have a similar one: Don't think ! REACT !!!
I'd not like to be misunderstood. We need to think. But what is totally wrong is to keep wishing when the market and your system is telling you your "wishes" are wrong. Then is when you must react.
Market gave me the opportunity to close my possie with a small gain if you want and I did not take it. Then, the market and CatFX50 gave me the opportunity to take a big gain and I did not take it.
only i should write on my monitor : "DON'T REACT, THINK FIRST"
or should i cut off my finger or cut off my mouse cable..
almost all loses came from 'reacting' to false price movements ...GREAD
also when in trade i should tourn of my comp. after puting SL and TP , it is the only way to not ruin potential good position for more then scalping pips
Some time I made a test. I was on the vacation so I didn't follow the markets all time or most time of day. I was just turning on the pc, check the charts a few minutes, put a demo trade and turn off PC.
I was allways puting const SL.
After 5 days of that kind of trading I never lost. Mabye it was a good week. I got > 100 pips, so ppl can say that wasnt much. But I was trading a few minutes per day, no stress, clear decisions. 100 pips with one lot trade (1:100) gived me 1000$ so U dont have to make a lot of pips. U have to feel confident, and push the button in the right time, in the right way...
my best trading period was 2 years ago on vacation.
i traded verry litle time,just cheek the situation,grab fast 10 - 20 pips and go out on the sea.i made 20 trades in a row without losing for 1 month but when i got back home i started again to play 'smart' ....
siting all day in front of the screen is trading suicide
and always (for me) when day is good to make money i am not there,always something else to do (job,kid,wife,parents...dog...)
but when day is chopy ..guess what...i am here and i lose
most loses i made when price did not move more than 50 pips both ways
so my advice for all ,learn first to control your emotions,learn to lose and if lose once dont trade that day any more unless it brakes the range for sure
funy thing is that i know to predict market day ahed ,using teh,fundamental
i am first on the list in prediction site and i still lose money
DONT TRADE MORE THAN 5:1 LAVARAGE EVER !!!!!!!!!!!!
So, make us a favor, predict market for us every day.
i will if you want but can you trade it to win ?i can't
i am not joking, i have around 70 % good predictions last month in forex majors and gold and i am ranking num 1 in some prediction site (waiting to see 1000 prize )
don't get me wrong, i am not tryng to sell here anything i only say how trading is dificult even if we know much even if we know what will be tomorow
p.s. and i post my predictions in the morning london time just after opening the charts and news shedule so i am doing it just for fun and with no deeper
let's just stick to your good system