Forecast and levels for S&P 500 - page 37

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The employment report showed that the US economy created 213,000 jobs in June, up from 195,000 expected by economists. However, the unemployment rate worsened from 3.80% to 4%, compared to the maintenance estimates for the previous month. In relation to average hourly wages, there was an annual increase of 2.70%, lower than the expected 2.80%. 
 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.07.07 18:51

S&P 500 - daily bullish to be resumed (based on the article)

S&P 500 chart by Metatrader 5

  • "US 500: Retail trader data shows 39.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.56 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since May 03 when US 500 traded near 2652.24; price has moved 3.3% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 5.2% lower than yesterday and 5.6% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.7% higher than yesterday and 13.6% higher from last week."
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests US 500 prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger US 500-bullish contrarian trading bias."

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 

 
European markets ended today’s session on positive territory. Concerns about trade tensions between the US and China softened slightly, allowing raw material producers to overperformance. In London, the market traded higher (0.95%) following the Brexit Minister’s resignation request, David Davis, and Foreign Minister Boris Johnson.
 
European stock markets closed higher as investors turned their attention to the upcoming earnings season, relegating the last political and trade tensions to second place. In sectoral terms, oil companies led the gains, boosted by rising commodity prices. Also on the rise were industrial and technological companies. In London, Marks & Spencer shares fell 0.61% on the day the retailer reported its results.
 
Most of the Asian stock markets ended low, with the Chinese market leading the losses. At issue was the news that the United States has produced an additional list of imported Chinese products amounting to USD 200 000 per year and threatened to impose tariffs already in September. In the Japanese market, losses were led by the sectors most sensitive to global trade issues, such as the automobile, while in China the most affected companies were the producers of raw materials.
 
European markets ended up higher, recovering from the losses recorded in the previous session. The media industry was among the best performers after the British government clarified the conditions for the acquisition of Sky's pay-TV platform by Twenty-First Century Fox. The oil sector ended virtually unchanged on a day when the price of oil fell again in international markets. Pharmaceuticals led the gains, with one of the German companies Gerresheimer posting an increase of more than 8% after announcing an extension of its business model and raising its growth forecasts.
 
European indices are in consolidation, favored by the performance of the US market and the outlook for the new Earnings Season that starts today in the US, with the disclosure of the figures of three of the largest financial institutions. Meanwhile, investors continue to monitor developments in trade tensions between the US and China.
 
In the pre-opening of the session, European indices retreated slightly, with investors focused toward company results on both sides of the Atlantic and the meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin after the US President met last week with Theresa May, British Prime Minister. Several economic studies indicate that the victory in a major football competition has a positive impact on the GDP (between 0.25% and 0.50%) of the winning country. This economic improvement has a positive effect on the stock market of the winning country, which tends to overperformance against the index of the other country finalist in the three months following the end of the competition. While recognizing that football events have a moderate and time-limited impact on stock markets, this type of study serves to confirm how much the emotions can determine the behavior of investors and economic agents. Thus, the French CAC40 index will be accompanied today in a more particular way.
 
European stock markets traded higher as investors digested the reported business results and monitored the words of the Fed President. In sectoral terms, the producers of raw materials stood out in the positive, while the telecommunications companies led the losses. The technology sector was conditioned by the results reported yesterday after the US closing, which disappointed the investors. In Frankfurt, shares of Thyssenkrupp rose 9.06% following news of the resignation of the company's chairman, as a result of pressure from shareholders. The European car industry has appreciated by about 0.80%. On the macroeconomic front, investor sentiment was influenced by the IMF's lowering of its growth forecasts for the United Kingdom and the Eurozone, warning that global trade tensions have worsened economic outlook.
 
As Powell’s testimony did not raise any fears or alarmism in stock markets, investors were able to focus on the earnings season, rewarding good results and penalizing companies that have deceased. The first group includes Johnson & Johnson, which not only reported numbers that beat analysts’ estimates but also proved confident for the future. Netflix represented the reverse of the medal. The company’s accounts disappointed the level of revenue and the number of subscribers, which led the respective stock to a decrease of 5.24%. According to Ritholtz Wealth Management, Amazon’s appreciation this year (57%) equals nearly 35% of S & P’s earnings, Netflix’s almost 100% rise is 21%, and Microsoft’s and Apple’s represent 27% of S & P’s earnings this year. The contribution of Google and Facebook is more modest (the rise of each title corresponds to 8% of the advance of the S&P). Thus, according to Ritholtz Wealth Management, FAANG accounts for almost all of the gains made by S&P this year. From this simple arithmetic emerges the crucial importance of the quarterly results of these companies.
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