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Forecast and levels for S&P 500 - page 38
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In the pre-opening, the European indexes rehearsed in different directions. During today’s session, investors will continue to monitor business results posted on both sides of the Atlantic. In today’s session, the highlight will be the accounts published by SAP, Unilever and Anglo American, so that their sectors may be influenced by the numbers revealed. Meanwhile, Ryanair’s stocks could also be hampered by the news about the cancellation of about 600 flights next week, due to what is expected to be the biggest strike of its employees ever. At the same time, trade relations between the US and its main partners will continue to be a theme to follow. President Donald Trump said yesterday that the White House may be preparing a trade agreement with Mexico and Canada. On the other hand, White House adviser Larry Kudlow suggested that the European Union should propose a significant trade agreement with the US. Remember that the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, will visit the United States next week.
The European indices are trading in descending trajectory, after the performance of the American and Asian markets. Although the earnings season will begin to gain some measure in Europe, the main catalyst for the stock markets of the Old Continent will continue to be the performance of its American counterparts. In fact, the correlation between the S&P500 and the Eurostoxx50 has hit the highest level since 2016. This pattern has allowed investors to weigh less than the fact that profit estimates are only 6% in Europe compared to 21% in USA and to suspend in their minds some risks, such as the political uncertainties associated with the new Italian Government, as well as some governmental instability in Spain and Germany, as well as some uncertainties regarding the future of the ECB’s monetary policy.
The presentation of results will take on a larger dimension in the coming days (84 of the DJStoxx600 members will report their quarterly accounts). According to the latest estimates, company profits will have grown 8.20% in the second quarter of this year, compared to the same period of 2017. However, excluding the oil sector, the increase in profits will have been more contained (+ 3.10%). The increase in revenues is estimated to have been 5.20%. Once again, this variation is inflated by the accounts of the oil companies. If we exclude these companies, revenues will have risen by a mere 0.50%. So relevant or more than the results themselves, will be the considerations that CEOs of companies will make of the current tension between the US and its trading partners. The exposure to world trade in European companies is far superior to its American counterparts: more than half of its revenues are generated outside Europe compared to the 30% of revenues that US companies originate outside the United States.
European markets ended the day with significant gains. Contrary to what has been observed, today's session was essentially dominated by business themes. European bank stocks were boosted by the good results of UBS. The Swiss bank reported a 9% increase in its quarterly profits, which reached 1280 M. CHF, surpassing analysts' forecasts. Bank CEO Sergio Ermotti was confident that UBS will achieve its proposed goals for 2018. Google's good results have had a positive effect not only in the technology sector but also in the European market as a whole. European investors are well aware of the impact Google's price has on US indices and so indirectly on Europeans. Also to mention the good results of Peugeot, which catapulted the stock to the highs of the last 7 years. At the macroeconomic level, PMI indexes for manufacturing and services activity in Germany have easily outperformed economists' forecasts. With regard to the Eurozone as a whole, the reading on the PMI index of
hit the forecasts but the forecast for services fell a bit short.
European indices are presenting some losses. Given the uncertainty still prevailing at the current juncture, it is likely that some short-term investors will continue to realize some profit taking after the strong rise in yesterday’s session. The initial phase of the day should be marked by investors’ response to the various results released before the opening. Today begins the visit of the President of the European Commission Juncker to the USA, where he will meet with President Trump. The purpose of this visit is to normalize relations between the two sides of the Atlantic, recently shaken by President Trump’s accusations against the European Union regarding the tariffs it imposes on American
, the regulatory barriers it raises (like the recent Google fine) and to the default on financing Nato. JeanClaude Juncker was prone to an agreement, which would have as its starting point the tariffs on cars. However, the President of the European Commission has limited powers in this regard, as any agreement will have to be ratified by the various National Parliaments.
The European indices are presenting some gains, especially the DAX. The comforting signals given by the meeting between President Trump and the President of the European Commission Juncker should sketch the initial trend of today. The ECB meeting will divert investors’ attention from microeconomic issues (business results) to more macro issues (monetary policy). Today’s meeting will be used by the Central Bank to cement the message given at the June meeting. However, at the current stage the signs that the slowdown is over are still very timid and on them weighs the specter of a worldwide trade war. The issue of inflation should also be discussed at the press conference. The ECB has been confident that inflation will eventually move towards the 2%, which is the aim of this institution.
Regarding yesterday’s meeting between Donald Trump and Jean-Claude Juncker, the two leaders agreed to start negotiations immediately to reduce tariffs on goods such as medicines, chemicals and soy and completely eliminate tariffs on
(excluding cars). This purpose is quite vague and sins for lack of detail but at least it demonstrates an intention. However, it is important to note that in May, too, the US and China reached a similar agreement before ending the talks in June. In short, more than an agreement, yesterday was celebrated an intention to reach an agreement. This intention has fragile foundations but may constitute a truce in that it was agreed to suspend the introduction of new tariffs while the negotiations last.
European markets started the week in slightest decline, with the tech sector pushing the stock indexes. Under Brexit, it was reported that Deutsche Bank has transferred about half of its euro clearing activities from London to Frankfurt. Shares of the German bank rose 2.75%. BMW has remained largely unchanged after the press reported today that the German company will be the first automaker to raise prices on cars built in the US and to be exported to China in the context of recent global trade tensions .
In the pre-opening, the European indices rehearsed in negative territory. The session will be marked by the release of several business results on both sides of the Atlantic. The technology sector will be more focused, not only by the observed behavior of companies in this area on Wall Street in the last session, but also by the fact that investors look forward to Apple's results. The business results agenda in Europe includes, among others, those of Credit Suisse, BP, Sanofi and Glencore. On the other hand, fears about the possible impact of Brexit on the car industry in Europe could influence this sector.
The session will today be marked by the release of quarterly results by some of the most important European companies. Arcelor Mittal, Air France-KLM, Infineon, Lloyds Bank, BNP Paribas, Volkswagen, Rio Tinto, among others. The figures revealed may influence the company’s stock movement as well as its activity sector. BNP Paribas figures have already been known: net profit rose 53% compared to the previous quarter to 2390 M€, but slightly down from last year. The results published yesterday in the US by Apple may condition the stocks of several European technology companies that are its suppliers.
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