Forecast and levels for S&P 500 - page 43

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Stock Markets – Closing Note - 10 Oct
Ger30, UK100 and SP500 are CFD’s, written over the Dax30, Footsie100 and S&P500 Index futures:

European markets ended the session on Wednesday with sharp losses. The attentions remained focused on the unfolding of the political situation in Italy, which again conditioned the sentiment of global investors. In this context, the International Monetary Fund, in the report on Global Financial Stability released today, warned of the risk of contagion of the Italian situation for the whole financial system of the Euro Zone and global. However, it was the rise in yields in the USA and the subsequent negative reaction of the stock exchange in that country to dictate the direction of the European markets. The automotive sector and commodity producers were among the worst performers in face of exacerbating fears about global economic growth and rising US interest rates. In business terms, LVMH fell 7.14%, after having reported a slowdown in its sales. Other luxury goods companies also posted losses, after Morgan Stanley reduced its underweight recommendation.

The US market traded lower, again penalized by rising yields. Yields on 10-year Treasury Bonds traded around 2.30%, one day after peaking at their highest level since 2011 and yields on 2-year Treasury Bonds have peaked since 2008. Still, the banking sector benefited of this upward trend, with the securities of some financial institutions registering an overperformance. To remember that this situation of the debt market comes two days after starting a new Earnings Season. On Friday, the quarterly results of Citigroup, Wells Fargo and J.P. Morgan will be published.
 
Stock Markets – Closing Note - 11 Oct
Ger30, UK100 and SP500 are CFD’s, written over the Dax30, Footsie100 and S&P500 Index futures:

As anticipated, the fall in US markets and its rapid spread to Asian stock markets intensified risk aversion on European markets. The strong rise in yields and worries about global economic growth were at the root of this negative sentiment among investors. Thus, the financial and technological sectors led the falls. The oil sector also conditioned the performance of European indices on a day when the price of oil fell by more than 1%. In the corporate field, shares of BMW fell 1.49% after news of the investment of 4200 M.USD in the joint venture with China's Brilliance Auto.

The US market was trading lower, although losses were being mitigated by the posting of lower-than-expected inflation. Inflation relative to September, measured by the consumer price index, was known today. This index reached 2.30% in annual terms, compared to the expected 2.40% and the previous 2.70%. If we exclude the most volatile goods (core version), it grew 2.20% below the expected 2.30%. As a result, Treasury Bond yields retreat from recent highs: 10-year Treasury Bond yields traded at around 3,167%, after having reached the highs of the last 7 years in recent days. It should be remembered that it was this upward trajectory of interest rates that aroused investor fears about the future of the monetary policy of the Fed, which yesterday was exacerbated by the comments of President Trump criticizing the Central Bank's actions. Already today, Donald Trump gave an interview during which criticizes the policy of the institution for being "too aggressive." On the labor market, the number of weekly applications for unemployment benefits showed a slight increase during the month of October, although it remained at minimum levels from the 60s. This indicator increased from 7,000 to 214,000, compared to 207,000 estimated.
 
Stock Markets – Closing Note - 12 Oct
Ger30, UK100 and SP500 are CFD’s, written over the Dax30, Footsie100 and S&P500 Index futures:

The recovery that US futures and Asian stock exchanges got through last night inspired European investors. However and despite the positive sentiment coming from the Asian session, European investors still showed some nervousness during today's session. In fact, most Old Continent indexes were able to achieve gains of more than 1% in the first hour of trading. Subsequently, these advances were being lost, as the initial impetus was losing conviction.

In the US, investor sentiment was divided between the yields and the results of some of the major banks in the country. In the debt market there was a slight increase in yields but they were not intimidating investors. The earnings season began today with the quarterly accounts of JP Morgan, Citigroup and Welsl Fargo. JP Morgan reported an EPS of $ 2.34 and a banking product of $ 27,800 M.USD, compared with $ 2.26 and $ 27540 in advance. The increase in profits was mainly due to the good performance of the activity of providing credit to consumption. Citigroup announced a EPS that beat the estimates (1.73 USD vs. 1.69 USD) although the banking product fell short of anticipated (18389 M.USD vs 18501 M.USD). In part, Citigroup's results were favored by tax effects and lower costs. Wells Fargo, the largest US lender, posted EPS of 1.13 USD (est. 1.17 USD) and a banking product of 21900 M.USD, practically in line with the estimates. While shares of Wells Fargo and Citigroup traded bullish, JP Morgan bonds showed no significant changes.
 
Stock Markets – Closing Note - 16 Oct
Ger30, UK100 and SP500 are CFD’s, written over the Dax30, Footsie100 and S&P500 Index futures:

European stock markets experienced a very positive day, with some sectors showing gains of more than 2%. The focus was mainly on the dispute between the United States and Saudi Arabia (following the assassination of the Saudi journalist in Turkey). The producers of raw materials presented a relative underperformance. One day after his government presented a controversial State Budget to the European Commission, the Milan Stock Exchange was the best performer of the day. However, it is important to underline that transalpine banking securities have been underperformance vis-à-vis other sectors.

Wall Street traded bullish, with investors cheered by the release of some quarterly results. The results of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs outperformed forecasts, while BlackRock surprised by the positive outlook but fell short in terms of revenue. Outside the financial sector, we highlight Johnson & Johnson whose results were above expectations. In terms of economic indicators, industrial production during the month of September increased by 0.30%, compared to forecasts of 0.20%.
 
Stock Markets – Closing Note - 17 Oct
Ger30, UK100 and SP500 are CFD’s, written over the Dax30, Footsie100 and S&P500 Index futures:

European stock markets closed lower, especially in southern Europe - Spain and Italy. The car industry was one of the worst performers, after it was reported that car sales in the European Union fell (23.40%) for the first time in 6 months. Volkswagen, Fiat and Renault titles led the losses. Also in sharp decline were the food and oil sectors. In Madrid, the stocks of DIA again showed a significant drop (-13%). In contrast, the technology sector, with ASML rising 3.47%, after its quarterly results surpassed expectations. In Amsterdam, Akzo Nobel also saw a considerable gain after the coating company announced that the profit from its main operations increased by 8%. Fresenius Medical Care shares fell more than 16% after the company cut its sales forecasts and prospects to 2018 in the face of a weaker performance at its US unit. In terms of economic indicators, the final reading of inflation for the Euro Zone during the month of September was in line with forecasts (2.10%). In its core version, which excludes the most volatile items, this indicator reached 0.90%.

On the day of publication of the minutes of the FED meeting and reaction to published business results, the US market opened in negative territory. The minutes of the FED meeting are a tool widely used by debt market players to gauge the sentiment prevailing within the Central Bank and what are the most sensitive issues for its members. The future of US monetary policy will depend essentially on two issues. The first is to know the level of interest rates from which monetary policy ceases to be accommodative and becomes neutral. The second concerns the Central Bank's dilemma whether monetary policy should remain in a neutral state or if it is to be tightened in the face of strong economic acceleration. Another document that can move the financial markets is what the US Treasury will publish regarding the foreign exchange market. In the business field, IBM shares fell 6.46% after yesterday after closing its quarterly results, which showed a drop in revenue higher than expected, due to the slowdown in software sales. Revenues reached 18760 M.USD, compared to estimates of 19,100 M.USD. The recurring EPS hit them 3.42 USD, against the expected 3.40 USD. On the contrary, Netflix presented its quarterly accounts, having registered a record number in the increase of the number of subscribers. The EPS was 0.89 USD, against the expected 0.68 USD. Revenues were in line with estimates. Thus, the shares of this company had a valuation of 4.53%. After closing, it will be Alcoa's turn to present its quarterly results.
 
Stock Markets – Closing Note - 18 Oct
Ger30, UK100 and SP500 are CFD’s, written over the Dax30, Footsie100 and S&P500 Index futures:

European stock markets closed mostly lower, in a session marked by the presentation and consequent reaction to the published business results. At the same time, attention was focused on the current impasse in the Brexit issue. The DJSToxx Banks was penalized by strong selling pressure that hit Italian and Spanish banks. Transalpine bank bonds reflected the widening of the spread between Italian and German yields, which has hit the highs since 2013. The main Spanish banks were heavily penalized, with losses ranging from 2% to 6.50% on the day the Supreme Spanish Court ruled that it should be the banking institutions, not the client, to pay the stamp duty associated with registering a mortgage by changing the standard that has been followed so far. The media sector remained prominent, with France's Publicis rising about 3.75%, after the world's 3rd largest advertising company reported that net revenue increased 1.30% in the third quarter. In the retail sector, Carrefour led the gains, after having posted higher sales in the third quarter, referring to the strong performance of its main markets, French and Brazilian. Unilever said today that its sales growth was 3.80% in the quarter, with the increase since the beginning of the year at 2.90%. Total revenues amounted to 12500 M.USD, representing an annual decline of 4.80% due to a negative exchange rate effect and the sale of some of its businesses, which included brands such as Becel and ProActiv. Its shares fell 0.80%. Among technology, SAP% decreased 6.04%. The German company raised its outlook to 2018, after having seen solid growth in its cloud business. Ericsson posted a quarterly net profit that exceeded the estimates by a significant margin, standing at 2750 M.SEK, compared to the estimates of 630 M.SEK. Sales increased 8.90% to 53810 MSEK, also above expected 50280 M.SEK.

US indices were trading lower, reflecting a decline in major tech stocks and rising yields. Alcoa rose 8%, after yesterday after closing its quarterly results, which were above expectations, due to the rise in aluminum oxide prices. Excluding non-recurring items, Alcoa recorded a EPS of 0.63 USD, compared to the estimates of 0.50 USD. Revenues rose 14.40% to 3390 M.USD, above the expected 3310 M.USD. After the closing of the session will be known the results of American Express.
 
Stock Markets – Closing Note - 19 Oct
Ger30, UK100 and SP500 are CFD’s, written over the Dax30, Footsie100 and S&P500 Index futures:

European indices traded lower. Investors had to divide their attention across multiple fronts. At the external level, China's economic data penalized the European export sector. In the third quarter, the Chinese economy grew 6.50%, below the 6.60%, which is the lowest quarterly growth since 2009. At the domestic level, the weakness of the banking sector, more precisely that of southern Europe, stood out. In Italy, friction between the two parties in the governing coalition was driving the spread between Italian and German interest rates to a new high in the last five years. This spread is a risk barometer of the economic and financial situation of the country and an increase penalizes the stocks of this country and with greater incidence the bank bonds. However, at the end of the day the most conciliatory words of European Commissioner Moscovici regarding the Italian situation triggered a rally in Italian banking stocks and a stabilization of the spread.

US stocks were recovering some of the losses suffered yesterday. Encouraging this rise were the good results presented by some companies such as Procter & Gamble, Honeywell, American Express and Schlumberger. At the macroeconomic level, home sales reached 5.15 million units (annualized) compared to the estimated 5.29 million.
 

S&P 500 - daily breakdown with the bearish reversal; weekly correction

Daily price was reversed to the primary bearish market condition with 2.708 support level to be testing for the daily bearish trend to be continuing.

S&P 500 chart by Metatrader 5

Resistance
Support
2.8862,742
2.9422.708


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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 
Stock Markets – Closing Note - 22 Oct
Ger30, UK100 and SP500 are CFD’s, written over the Dax30, Footsie100 and S&P500 Index futures:

European markets ended the day in low. The rise of the Chinese stock exchanges and the first reaction of the bond market to the reduction of the rating of Italy gave an initial boost to the stock indices. The 4.50% rise in the Shanghai stock market enabled commodity producers and the auto industry to rank among the best performers. Fiat advanced 3% as a result of the news that it sold its hi-tech unit Magneti Marelli to a company owned by the private equity fund KKR for 6200 M. €. On Friday after closing, Moody's downgraded Italian debt from Baa2 to Baa3 with a stable outlook. This is the last degree of the investment category and indicates a moderate credit risk. In an early stage, the market reacted positively, with Italian yields and its spread declining against the Germans. However, in the second part of the session, Italian bonds lost all ground gained in the morning, spreading their weakness to other European assets. Despite the conciliatory tone of the letter sent by Finance Minister Giovanni Tria to the European Commission, the Italian Government reiterated that it will not change the State Budget already presented. The Earnings Season remains one of the main themes of the week. Ryanair posted a considerable gain, despite having reported a profit for the second fiscal quarter below expectations. The company also announced that it has made significant progress in preventing further strikes. On the contrary, Philips fell more than 6% after its quarterly results fell short of forecasts. Shares of the Day suffered heavy losses (-25%) on the day the company revealed that it reviewed the accounts for 2017 and accounted for minus 20 M. € in revenues.

American indices traded without a common trend. The Dow Jones and S & P were being penalized by the correction of the banking and oil sectors. Nasdaq was trading higher, benefiting from the appreciation of the shares of major technology companies. This week, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, among other companies will report their quarterly accounts.
 
Stock Markets – Closing Note - 23 Oct
Ger30, UK100 and SP500 are CFD’s, written over the Dax30, Footsie100 and S&P500 Index futures:

Today there were strong losses for European stock exchanges, with investors sentiment influenced by the weakness of the Chinese stock markets and the situation in Italy. Influencing investor sentiment has been the disappointing business results that have marked the last few days. The letter sent to Brussels by the Italian Ministry of Finance was released. In a conciliatory way in which it recognizes some correctness of the objections of the European Commission, the Italian Government has reiterated that it will not alter its Budget. As a result, the market was still waiting for further developments, with the Italian stock market ending up with a 0.70% drop and Italian 10-year yields up 8 basis points (0.08%) compared to yesterday. On the other hand, the poor performance shown by the Asian stock markets also penalized the markets, mainly the producers of raw materials, a sector very sensitive to the economic cycle of this country. Another sector that closed today with heavy losses was the technological one, due to a sharp fall of an Austrian chip maker, AMS. This company disappointed investors by presenting their outlook for the fourth quarter. In Frankfurt, Bayer fell 9.69% following confirmation in the US of the conviction of its subsidiary Monsanto for hiding the danger of Roundup, its herbicide with glyphosate. In the automotive sector, BMW has said it will call for overhauling 1.6 million diesel-powered vehicles worldwide due to problems in the exhaust gas cooling circuit. Renault reported its quarterly sales. Revenues amounted to 11500 M. € compared to the 12,200 M. € that analysts, on average, estimated. Renault cut its projections for the growth of the Chinese car market (2% compared to the previous 5%).

Geopolitical tensions around Saudi Arabia and some disappointing results were hampering the Wall Street session. Before the opening of the session, the results of McDonald's, 3M's and Caterpillar's were known. 3M reported lower-than-expected earnings and revenues while Caterpillar disappointed investors by reiterating its projections for the rest of the year.
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