Forecast and levels for S&P 500 - page 46

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psaTrading
1276
psaTrading  
Stock Markets – Closing Note - 22 Nov
Ger30, UK100 and SP500 are CFD’s, written over the Dax30, Footsie100 and S&P500 Index futures:

European markets closed lower, losing part of the gains they conquered yesterday. The celebration of the Thanksgiving holiday in the US withdrew some liquidity to today's session, which showed below average volumes. The sectors that contributed the most to today's flexion were mining and telecommunications. The fall of the banking sector has been softened by the rise of transalpine banks. After the European Commission rejected the Italian State Budget, local investors seem to believe that the government of Rome is taking a more conciliatory stance, despite the statements of some of its members.

The US market is closed today to commemorate the Thanksgiving day.
psaTrading
1276
psaTrading  
Stock Markets – Closing Note - 23 Nov
Ger30, UK100 and SP500 are CFD’s, written over the Dax30, Footsie100 and S&P500 Index futures:

The European indices closed with contained valuations. In its opening hours, the European session was characterized by a resilience to the significant drop in Chinese stock markets (which accumulated losses of more than 2%). The volume traded was below average due to the reduced session in New York. Perhaps the European markets would have been able to achieve more significant gains had it not been for the sharp falls in the mining and oil sectors. Oil traded at the lows last year, with Brent reaching 60USD/barrel. To reinforce the recent downward trend has now been the news that Saudi Arabia's production is at its maximum and that US oil reserves have been increasing. The decline in oil was spreading the trend of other industrial raw materials. On the positive side, the stocks associated with tourism and pharmaceuticals emerged. At the macroeconomic level, the PMI indices, related to economic activity and services, were bending relative to October. The November readings were also below expectations, confirming the decline in economic growth in the Euro Zone.

US stocks were trading at a loss. The session today is shorter, ending at 6 PM GMT. The main hallmark of the session, in addition to the drop in oil prices, was the overperformance of stocks more focused on the domestic economy (customized by the Russell2000 index), which contrasted with selling pressure on top technology stocks.
psaTrading
1276
psaTrading  
Stock Markets – Closing Note - 26 Nov
Ger30, UK100 and SP500 are CFD’s, written over the Dax30, Footsie100 and S&P500 Index futures:

European indexes closed with valuations above 1%. The deal reached over the weekend for Brexit, the latest news from Italy and the rise in crude oil were the main catalysts of this rise. The understanding reached between the European Union and the UK over the weekend softened the nervousness among investors. British stocks and pound sterling traded higher. However, on the horizon lies the challenge that Prime Minister Theresa May will face: to bring together an internal consensus capable of securing Parliament's approval of the agreement drawn up over the weekend. The Italian market was the best performer of the day. To galvanize the transalpine investors and to reflect their European peers was the news reported by the local press. According to this source, Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, who has led the tough wing of the Government in its relationship with Brussels, has opened the possibility of the 2019 Budget to undergo some tinkering in order to reassure international investors. The increase in crude oil led to the appreciation of its sector as well as that of the miner, with which it has a high correlation. At the macroeconomic level, the IFO index, which measures the sentiment of German entrepreneurs, fell from 102.6 in November to 102.0, a level also below the forecast of 102.3.

US markets were trading higher, with volumes recovering after the festive period late last week. The catalyst for the climb was the first numbers of the shopping season (or holiday season) and its positive effects in the technological sector as well as the recovery of crude. Although definitive figures are not yet available, on Black Friday, online purchases amounted to 6200 M.USD, which represents a 24% increase over the same day of 2017.
Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.01.10 10:14

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USDDollar Index and S&P 500: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes

2019-01-09 19:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes]

[USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the FOMC's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.

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From rttnews article :

  • "Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's latest meeting confirmed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent remarks suggesting the central bank will take a patient approach to further interest rate increases. The minutes of the FOMC's December meeting showed participants saw the appropriate extent and timing of future rate hikes as less clear than earlier."
  • "The Fed decided to raise rates by a quarter point at the meeting, but the minutes suggest volatility in financial markets and increased concerns about global economic growth have clouded the outlook for rates. "Against this backdrop, many participants expressed the view that, especially in an environment of muted inflation pressures, the Committee could afford to be patient about further policy firming," the minutes said."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news events

EUR/USD: range price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news events

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news events

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S&P 500: range price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news events

S&P 500: range price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
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Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.01.31 07:15

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USDDollar Index and S&P 500: Federal Funds Rate

2019-01-30 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

  • past data is 2.50%
  • forecast data is 2.50%
  • actual data is 2.50% according to the latest press release 
if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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From official report :

  • "Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent. The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes. In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

EUR/USD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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S&P 500: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

S&P 500: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
112529
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.02.05 10:01

S&P 500 - breakout with weekly reversal (based on the article)

S&P 500 weekly chart by Metatrader 5

  • "US 500: Retail trader data shows 30.6% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.26 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Jan 07 when US 500 traded near 2527.99; price has moved 7.1% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 9.0% lower than yesterday and 4.8% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.6% lower than yesterday and 3.3% higher from last week."
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests US 500 prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed US 500 trading bias."

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The charts were made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


aashrafi
17
aashrafi  

Hello,

How can I track other stocks on here, like AMZN or PYPL, CGC, …?

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
112529
Sergey Golubev  
aashrafi:

Hello,

How can I track other stocks on here, like AMZN or PYPL, CGC, …?

Yes, if you want.
But the symbols (stocks) are related to the broker (it is not related to Metatrader).
Different broker = different symbols.
Yes, some brokers are proposing AMZN and so on for trading.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
112529
Sergey Golubev  
Sergey Golubev:

Yes, if you want.
But the symbols (stocks) are related to the broker (it is not related to Metatrader).
Different broker = different symbols.
Yes, some brokers are proposing AMZN and so on for trading.

This is example with two brokers - 


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
112529
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.08.12 19:26

S&P 500 - bullish ranging for correction; 2773 is the key for correction to be started; 3026 is the key for the bullish trend to be continuing (based on the article)

S&P 500 weekly chart by Metatrader 5

  • "US 500: Retail trader data shows 29.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.42 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% lower than yesterday and 8.7% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.6% lower than yesterday and 9.7% higher from last week."

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with the following indicator from CodeBase


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