Forecast and levels for S&P 500 - page 34

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Stock trading continues to be penalized by fears of political instability in Europe. With the scenario in Italy moving towards a resolution via a “political government” but the outlook in Spain to point to the fall of government tomorrow with the vote on the motion of censorship. But the concern that we are facing an imminent trade war is also in the offing, with US President Donald Trump adding more fuel to the fire.
 
In the pre-opening, the European indices rehearsed with some gains. As a first step, financial markets should react to the formation of a new government in Italy. After the negotiations were over, President Mattarella appointed Giuseppe Conte to the position of Prime Minister. Giuseppe Conte will have as deputy prime ministers, Matteo Salvini and Luigi di Maio, the leaders of the Nord League and the 5 Stelle Movement. For the finance portfolio Giovanni Tria, an academic, was appointed, with very critical positions on the path that the European integration process has taken, blaming Germany for it. In an initial phase, Italian assets may react favorably to the end of the impasse but will later consider the positions defended by Giovanni Tria. In addition to the new developments in Italy, European investors will have to face another challenge: the imposition of tariffs on European exports of steel and aluminum to the US. Donald Trump's decision raises the specter of a phase of protectionism that will shake up world trade.
 
Soon there will be dances. Started, the trade war.
 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.01 20:46

S&P 500 - daily narrow ranging near bearish reversal area (based on the article)

S&P 500 daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Since bottoming at the beginning of April the S&P 500 has been the process of slowly (and sloppily) putting together a string of higher-highs and higher-lows, with the second higher-low coming at the all-important confluence between the 200-day and Feb 2016 trend-line."
  • "Overall, the market has a semi-positive feel to it at the moment with a couple of recent gap-downs not leading to follow-through selling, as buyers are showing a willingness to step in on weakness. The drop on Tuesday saw a successful retest of the trend-line running off the record high before Wednesdays surge."
  • "A breakout above 2742 will clear way for a potential move to the March high just over 2800, and yet another higher-high since early April. On the flip-side, to keep the tone positive, the weekly low at 2676 and trend-line off the highs need to hold."

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 


 
The beginning of the week was marked by a positive trend registered by most European indices and by various sectors of activity. The utilities and banking sectors lead the gains. Societe Generale rose 0.73%, while Unicredit fell 1.34% on the day the Financial Times said the two institutions are considering a merger. This news was not officially confirmed. On the other hand, Air France KLM was among the best performers, after AccorHotels said that it is analyzing the acquisition of a stake in the airline.
 
On the macroeconomic front, the PMI economic activity index for the Euro Zone fell to the low of the last 18 months to 54.10, in line with expectations. The same indicator, but relative to the services sector, was 53.80, compared to the expected 53.90.
 
European markets closed in different directions, though contained. During today’s session, investors’ sentiment was influenced by the political situation in Italy, as well as the comments made by the central banks. Yesterday, just a few “more populist” words from the new Prime Minister Conte in the Senate were enough to cause a rise in Italian yields (especially those with a maturity of two years). Today, this upward movement of Italian sovereign yields remained, which again penalized the banking sector.
 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.07 07:36

S&P 500 - bounced from 55-SMA/200-SMA reversal area to above for the bullish to be continuing (based on the article)

S&P 500 by MT5

  • "US 500: Retail trader data shows 39.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.53 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since May 03 when US 500 traded near 2644.0; price has moved 4.3% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 6.3% lower than yesterday and 7.7% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 11.8% higher than yesterday and 15.8% higher from last week."
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests US 500 prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger US 500-bullish contrarian trading bias."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


 
In the pre-opening, the European indices rehearsed with some gains. Today will be the scene of the contrast between two factors. On one hand, the good performance of Wall Street, which should benefit the most cyclical sectors in Europe. But on the other hand, investors will have to face a new upward movement in yields but this time has a different nature. Yesterday, the session was driven by a rise in sovereign yields, but unlike in previous days, was not due to the political situation in Italy. Spurring the new upward movement of these interest rates were statements by Peter Praet. The ECB's Chief Economist has stated that this institution is progressively more confident that it will reach its goal of 2% of inflation. These statements indicate that during next week's meeting the topic on the end of the debt acquisition program will certainly be debated. 
 
The day was slightly negative for most European markets, with investors waiting for the G7 meeting this weekend in Canada as well as the European Central Bank meeting next week. In fact sales pressure has focused mainly on the financial, automotive, chemical and commodity sectors. In Germany, the economic data published sparked fears about the state of the country's economy. After yesterday data on orders to industry have disappointed the market, today it was announced that industrial production fell 1% in April compared to the previous month (against a forecast of a slight increase of 0.30%), while exports decreased 0.30%, in line with the estimates. In some German newspapers circulate rumors, not confirmed, that Deutsche Bank is studying a merger with Commerzbank. In this market, Commerzbank fell 1.96% and Deutsche Bank fell 1.22%.
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