Last week brought several sharp reversals. The Fed kept rates unchanged, while its hawkish tone and strong US GDP supported the dollar and demand for Treasuries. Concerns over the cost of the AI boom intensified after Intel’s weak outlook and sharp share-price drop triggered further selling in tech stocks. Oil moved with developments around Iran and Hormuz: Brent reached local highs but failed to hold them. On Friday, the record Binance hack added pressure to crypto, while gold and silver continued falling amid a firm dollar and long-position liquidations.
💶 EUR/USD
The pair followed the bearish scenario: starting at 1.1215, falling to 1.1104 and closing near 1.1160. The Fed kept rates at 4.00%, so the ECB’s decision to hold at 2.65% failed to support the euro, while risk-off sentiment continues to limit buyers. Support: 1.1100-1.1125 and 1.1050-1.1070, then 1.1000. Resistance: 1.1180-1.1200, then 1.1215-1.1230 and 1.1260-1.1285. While below 1.1180-1.1200, the outlook is moderately bearish: below 1.1100-1.1125 → 1.1050-1.1070; above 1.1200 → 1.1260-1.1285.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin moved higher and then collapsed: starting at 80,170, rising to 81,910, then falling to 76,160 after $6.3 billion in assets were stolen from Binance, before closing near 77,000. About $1.5 billion in positions were liquidated in 24 hours, while spot-ETF outflows continue. Support: 76,200-76,500, then 75,000-76,000 and 70,000-71,000. Resistance: 78,800-79,200, then 80,000-80,800, 82,000-82,300 and 84,300-85,000. While BTC remains below 78,800-79,200, the outlook is bearish: below 75,000 → 70,000-71,000; above 80,800 → 82,000-82,300.
🛢 Brent Crude Oil
Brent settled into a new range: starting at 111, falling to 108.80, then rising to 113.70 and closing near 111.60. The risk premium around Iran and Hormuz remains. Support: 110.00-110.50, then 108.40-109.00 and 105.50-106.20. Resistance: 112.30-112.85, 113.50-114.20 and 117.30-117.50. While Brent remains above 108.40-109.00, buyers retain the technical advantage, but geopolitics can quickly change the scenario.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold fell to 3,870, setting new yearly lows. Safe-haven demand again moved mainly into Treasuries, while a firm dollar and strong US data added pressure. Support: 3,790-3,800, then 3,615-3,710 and 3,250-3,410. Resistance: 3,970-4,000, 4,040-4,075 and 4,140-4,150. While gold remains below 3,970-4,000, the outlook is bearish: below 3,840 → 3,760-3,790; above 4,000 → 4,040-4,075.
⚠️ Key Events of the Week
The main focus is the US labour market and elections. 2, 3 and 4 November – US business activity (PMI); 3 November – US midterm elections, Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision and US JOLTS; 4 November – Eurozone CPI, US ADP and ISM; 5 November – Bank of England rate decision; 6 November – US labour-market report, including NFP. For oil, Iran and Hormuz remain the key factor.
📈 Likely trends: EUR/USD – moderately bearish below 1.1180-1.1200; below 1.1100-1.1125 → 1.1050-1.1070. BTC/USD – bearish below 78,800-79,200; below 75,000 → 70,000-71,000. Brent – buyers have the advantage above 108.40-109.00, but the move depends on Iran and Hormuz. XAU/USD – bearish below 3,970-4,000; below 3,840 → 3,760-3,790.
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