Week Ahead 26-30 October 2026: How Far the Key Releases Usually Move EUR/USD, USD/JPY and Gold
This is a measured look at the high-impact economic releases of the week of 26-30 October 2026: for each one, how far EUR/USD, USD/JPY and gold have typically moved in the 15 minutes after it, over the last 3 years. It is history, not a forecast: it tells you what a normal reaction looks like, so that stops, position size and news filters can be set with real numbers.
This week's releases and their usual 15-minute move
| UTC | JST | Release | Forecast / previous | EUR/USD (pips) | USD/JPY (pips) | Gold (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday 27 October | ||||||
| 12:30 | 21:30 | USD Durable Goods Orders | 0.7% / 0.0% | 5.0 | 8.0 | 2.93 |
| 14:00 | 23:00 | USD Consumer Confidence Index | 81.5 / 81.9 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 3.08 |
| 14:00 | 23:00 | USD New Home Sales | 0.708M / 0.684M | 4.2 | 6.1 | 3.90 |
| 17:00 | 02:00 (+1 day) | EUR ECB President Lagarde Speech | - / - | 3.1 | - | - |
| Wednesday 28 October | ||||||
| 14:30 | 23:30 | USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -2.067M / -3.060M | 3.5 | 4.7 | 2.31 |
| 18:00 | 03:00 (+1 day) | USD Fed Interest Rate Decision | - / 4.00% | 15.8 | 23.8 | 8.43 |
| 18:30 | 03:30 (+1 day) | USD FOMC Press Conference | - / - | 12.2 | 16.7 | 7.62 |
| Thursday 29 October | ||||||
| 10:00 | 19:00 | EUR Consumer Price Expectations | 41.1 / 35.2 | 3.2 | - | - |
| 12:30 | 21:30 | USD Initial Jobless Claims | 199K / 194K | 5.8 | 10.1 | 3.80 |
| 12:30 | 21:30 | USD Gross Domestic Product q/q (with GDP Sales q/q) | 1.4% / 2.2% | 7.2 | 9.7 | 4.49 |
| 12:30 | 21:30 | USD Core PCE Price Index m/m (with Core PCE Price Index y/y) | 3.1% / 3.0% | 6.9 | 8.6 | 3.58 |
| 13:15 | 22:15 | EUR ECB Deposit Rate Decision (with ECB Interest Rate Decision) | - / 2.50% | 6.3 | - | - |
| 13:45 | 22:45 | EUR ECB Monetary Policy Press Conference | - / - | 4.8 | - | - |
| 23:30 | 08:30 (+1 day) | JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y | 3.0% / 3.0% | - | 5.8 | - |
| 23:50 | 08:50 (+1 day) | JPY Retail Sales m/m | - / - | - | 6.5 | - |
| Friday 30 October | ||||||
| 06:30 | 15:30 | JPY BOJ Press Conference | - / - | - | 14.9 | - |
| 07:00 | 16:00 | EUR GDP q/q | 0.1% / 0.3% | 3.4 | - | - |
| 13:45 | 22:45 | USD Chicago PMI | 61.3 / 58.8 | 4.3 | 10.8 | 3.17 |
Median distance between the price at the release minute and the close 15 minutes later. Pips for EUR/USD and USD/JPY, US dollars for gold. Releases that come out together at least 8 times in 10 are shown in one row and measured once.
What stands out
- EUR/USD: the largest typical move this week follows Fed Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday 18:00 UTC): a median of 15.8 pips 15 minutes after the release, and more than 26.0 pips in one release out of four (24 releases since 2023).
- USD/JPY: the largest typical move this week follows Fed Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday 18:00 UTC): a median of 23.8 pips 15 minutes after the release, and more than 42.2 pips in one release out of four (24 releases since 2023).
- Gold: the largest typical move this week follows Fed Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday 18:00 UTC): a median of 8.43 US dollars 15 minutes after the release, and more than 13.27 US dollars in one release out of four (24 releases since 2023).
- Price moved the way the calendar rated the actual value (good or bad for the currency) more often than chance (binomial test, 95%) for: EUR/USD after Initial Jobless Claims (84 of 145 releases); Gold after Initial Jobless Claims (91 of 146 releases); USD/JPY after Tokyo Core CPI y/y (22 of 30 releases); USD/JPY after Retail Sales m/m (16 of 22 releases).
- Thursday 12:30 UTC: 3 USD releases come out at the same minute (Initial Jobless Claims, Gross Domestic Product q/q, Core PCE Price Index m/m). Each figure above was measured on that release's own history, and on this day they share one market move.
How the numbers are measured
- Releases and their times come from the economic calendar built into MetaTrader 5 (high importance only).
- Prices are one broker's MT5 demo feed, M1 bars where available (M5 or M15 for older dates). Your broker's numbers will differ slightly.
- The forecast and previous values are the calendar's own. Nothing on this page is a trading signal.
The figures come from News Impact Statistics, an indicator for MetaTrader 5 that measures the same on your own broker's prices and shows the usual move of the next releases on your chart.
Gotobi day this week (USD/JPY Tokyo fixing at 09:55 JST): Friday 30 October. Nakane USDJPY Gotobi is an Expert Advisor that trades only those mornings.
