Fundamental Market Analysis for June 24, 2026 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY)

EURUSD:

The euro starts the day near 1.1375 after weak euro area business activity data. The preliminary composite PMI rose to 49.5 in June but remained below the neutral threshold for a third consecutive month, while the services sector continued to contract. For the single currency, this matters more than a one-off improvement in the headline figure: weak new orders and cautious corporate activity point to continued vulnerability in domestic demand.

The ECB raised key interest rates on June 11 in response to inflation risks linked to energy markets. However, weak services activity and a more moderate pace of cost growth limit the scope for further tightening, as the central bank also has to consider the risk of slower economic growth. As a result, the latest decision alone does not create a lasting advantage for the euro over the US dollar.

The US dollar, by contrast, continues to benefit from shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy. After the Federal Reserve kept its target range at 3.50%–3.75%, markets became more inclined to price in another rate increase later this year, while weaker risk sentiment supported demand for the dollar. As long as the divergence in expectations between the Federal Reserve and the ECB remains in focus, EUR/USD may remain biased to the downside.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1375, SL 1.1405, TP 1.1285

GBPUSD:

The pound remains close to 1.3200, but the domestic backdrop offers limited support. At its June meeting, the Bank of England kept its rate unchanged at 3.75% by a 7–2 majority, while two Monetary Policy Committee members voted for a rate increase. This split suggests that the central bank still sees inflation risks but is not yet ready to begin a new tightening cycle.

UK inflation remained at 2.8% in May, while CPIH services inflation accelerated to 3.6%. This combination complicates the Bank of England’s outlook: persistent services inflation calls for caution, while weak demand limits the room for tighter policy. Therefore, the interest rate outlook does not currently provide the pound with a clear advantage.

At the same time, the US dollar is strengthening on the back of Federal Reserve expectations and more cautious sentiment towards risk-sensitive assets. Political uncertainty in the United Kingdom adds to sterling’s sensitivity to this external pressure, even if it is not the main market driver. If the current backdrop persists, GBP/USD may remain under pressure, and a sell scenario appears more consistent with the fundamental picture.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3200, SL 1.3230, TP 1.3110

USDJPY:

USD/JPY is holding near 161.57, and the key factor for the pair is not only the interest rate differential but also the cost of further yen weakness. The scale of the currency’s decline has again prompted warnings from Japanese authorities. The Ministry of Finance has stated that it is ready to respond to currency moves at any time, forcing the market to consider the risk of sharp action rather than focusing solely on US dollar strength.

The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.0% at its June 15–16 meeting, while today’s summary of opinions showed that some board members are open to faster further rate increases. Rising imported inflation supports this view. At the same time, the Federal Reserve kept its target range at 3.50%–3.75%, and expectations of another rate increase continue to support the yield advantage of US assets.

This combination creates an uneven risk profile for USD/JPY. The interest rate differential may still support the US dollar, but at such sensitive levels, stronger official rhetoric or direct action by Japan could quickly alter the balance. Under the baseline scenario, a moderate decline in the pair remains the priority, as the risk of yen strengthening through an official response outweighs the potential for further depreciation.

Trading idea: SELL 161.55, SL 161.85, TP 160.65

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