The past week was marked by a stronger US dollar. The American currency was supported by better-than-expected US macroeconomic data and rising US Treasury yields amid continuing expectations of a prolonged period of high Federal Reserve rates. As a result, pressure increased on risk assets and precious metals: Bitcoin once again failed to hold above 80,000, while gold corrected after its recent rally. Geopolitics and growing tensions around Iran also remain an additional source of uncertainty for the markets.
💶 EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair closed the week at 1.1625 after another failed attempt to secure a foothold above the 1.1700 zone. The pair is now trading in the middle of the medium-term sideways range of 1.1400-1.1830. The nearest resistance is located at 1.1680-1.1700. A breakout above this zone may open the way to 1.1755-1.1785 and further to 1.1830. Support is located at 1.1580, followed by 1.1500-1.1530, 1.1445 and 1.1390-1.1410. While the price remains above 1.1580-1.1600, the medium-term structure stays neutral-to-bullish, although the stronger dollar limits further upside potential for the euro.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
On Saturday, May 16, BTC/USD is trading near 78,000 after correcting from local highs. Bitcoin once again failed to hold above the psychological 80,000 level, triggering profit-taking and stronger selling pressure. The nearest resistance is now located at 79,500-80,000. Only a confident move above this zone would allow the market to target 85,000-90,000 again. Support is located at 75,000-76,000, followed by 73,300-74,150 and 70,500-71,200. While BTC/USD remains below 80,000, the scenario stays neutral with increased risks of further downside correction.
🛢 Brent Oil
Brent crude closed the week at 109.48 dollars per barrel, holding firmly above the psychological 100.00 level. Additional support for prices comes from the renewed escalation between the US and Iran. The market is closely watching developments around the Strait of Hormuz, where a US nuclear submarine has been deployed, increasing concerns over possible supply disruptions. The nearest resistance is located at 112.00, followed by 119.00. Support is located at 105.00-106.00, then 100.00-102.00 and 97.00-98.00. While the price remains above 100.00, the baseline scenario for Brent stays moderately bullish despite continuing high volatility.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold finished the week near 4,540 dollars per ounce. After attempting to continue its rally, the market faced profit-taking pressure amid a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields. The nearest resistance is located at 4,600-4,650, followed by 4,765-4,800 and 4,860-4,900. Support is located at 4,500, then 4,350-4,400 and 4,200-4,250. While prices remain below 4,650, the scenario stays neutral-to-bearish, although the 4,400 zone is still limiting selling pressure.
📈 Key Events and Baseline Scenarios of the Week
Next week, market attention will focus on PMI data and US labor market statistics, inflation data from the Eurozone and the UK, GDP figures from Japan and Germany, as well as the Fed minutes. These events may adjust interest rate expectations and influence major currencies and other assets.
Baseline scenarios: EUR/USD – neutral-to-bullish above 1.1580-1.1600. BTC/USD – neutral below 80,000 with risks of further correction. Brent – moderately bullish above 100.00. XAU/USD – neutral-to-bearish below 4,650.
