GOLD (XAUUSD) 30M – Reversal Brewing at Major Supply Zone? For Monday, 16 Feb 2026
📊 Market Overview
Gold has aggressively recovered after the sharp sell-off seen on the 13th. The market formed a strong bullish impulsive leg from the lows near 4,880 and is now trading back into a key supply and mitigation zone between 5,020 – 5,060.
This area previously acted as a consolidation base before the breakdown — making it a high-probability reaction zone.
🧠 Technical Structure Breakdown
1️⃣ Major Supply Zone Retest
Price has tapped into:
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Previous distribution area
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30M supply imbalance
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Prior support turned resistance
This confluence makes it a potential reversal area.
2️⃣ Bearish Context Still Valid
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Overall structure on higher timeframes remains bearish
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The recovery move looks corrective, not impulsive
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No major higher high has been formed
This suggests the upside may be liquidity-driven rather than trend-changing.
3️⃣ Reversal Scenario (Primary Bias)
If rejection confirms in this zone:
🎯 First Target: 4,980
🎯 Second Target: 4,940
🎯 Extended Target: 4,880 liquidity low
A strong bearish candle close below 5,020 will increase probability of continuation to the downside.
4️⃣ Invalidation Level
If price breaks and sustains above 5,080 with momentum, the bearish setup weakens and upside continuation becomes likely.
💡 Trading Idea Summary
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Bias: Bearish below 5,080
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Entry Zone: 5,020 – 5,060 rejection
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Risk Management: Wait for confirmation (structure break / rejection wick / bearish engulfing)
Patience is key here — this is a reaction zone, not a blind sell.
📈 Chart Reference + Where I Share Premium Setups
I regularly publish structural analysis, probability-based scenarios, and risk-managed setups on my MQL5 channel — including live price reactions to key levels.
👉 Link to your MQL5 channel here: https://www.mql5.com/en/channels/learning-forex-gold
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer:
This market analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage risk responsibly.
