Lower Rates, Higher Gold: Trump’s 2026 Playbook

Lower Rates, Higher Gold: Trump’s 2026 Playbook

14 February 2026, 11:10
Evgeny Belyaev
0
26

Gold just hit $5,590—an all-time high. And it didn’t happen by accident. The chart tells the story: a steady climb since August 2025, accelerating sharply in early 2026. One major catalyst? Donald Trump’s renewed push for lower interest rates.


Let’s be clear: Trump isn’t setting Fed policy—but his rhetoric matters. With the 2024 election behind him and a second term underway, he’s openly calling for rate cuts, arguing that high borrowing costs are hurting growth and small businesses. The market is listening.

Why does this help gold?

  1. Real yields drop — Gold pays no yield. When nominal rates fall and inflation stays sticky (as it has), real rates turn negative. That makes holding gold more attractive versus bonds or cash.
  2. Dollar weakness — Lower rates typically weaken the USD. Since gold is priced in dollars, a softer greenback lifts its value globally—especially for non-U.S. buyers.
  3. Safe-haven demand spikes — Political uncertainty + looser monetary policy = classic gold cocktail. Investors hedge against volatility, currency debasement, and fiscal overreach.
The recent surge isn’t just sentiment—it’s technical too: the breakout above $5,000/oz (and the run-up to $5,590) triggered algorithmic buy orders and stop-loss hunting. Momentum feeds on itself.

Bottom line: if the Fed caves to political pressure and cuts rates in H2 2026, gold could test $6,000+ before year-end. 


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