Weekly Wrap – Global Macro Recap (Oct 13–18, 2025)
Global markets navigated a week of mixed macro data and cautious central-bank communication, as China’s inflation eased, UK growth steadied, and US regional surveys diverged.
🇦🇺 Australia (AUD)
RBA Minutes reaffirmed a balanced stance: vigilance on inflation, recognition of softer momentum.
Labor data surprised with +14.9K jobs; Unemployment 4.5% — resilience despite tighter conditions.
🇬🇧 United Kingdom (GBP)
Average Earnings (3m/y) 5.0%; Claimant Count +25.8K — ongoing labor tightness with softer hiring.
GDP m/m +0.1% signals stagnation rather than contraction. Gov. Bailey kept a restrictive tone.
🇪🇺 Eurozone (EUR)
Germany ZEW 39.3 — modest improvement in sentiment.
ECB President Lagarde (two speeches) stressed data-dependency and gradual normalization; EUR stayed range-bound.
🇨🇳 China (CNY)
CPI y/y −0.3%, PPI y/y −2.3% — persistent disinflation.
New Loans 1.29T yuan — tentative credit impulse to support domestic demand.
🇺🇸 United States (USD)
Empire State +10.7 vs Philly Fed −12.8 — stark regional divergence.
Powell and Waller struck a cautious balance: disinflation progress vs growth uncertainty.
🇨🇦 Canada (CAD)
BoC Gov. Macklem kept a patient stance; rates on hold until clearer disinflation trends emerge.
📌 Trader’s Note
Theme: fragile growth, policy caution, divergence. China disinflation, UK wage stickiness, and US survey splits keep paths uncertain. Focus near-term on US inflation/consumption confirmation and forward guidance from major central banks.
Developed via Global Markets Pulse – structured macro insights for traders.
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