Markets enter the second week of October against the backdrop of the U.S. government shutdown, when, due to the absence of an agreed budget, part of federal agencies ceased operations. As a result, the publication of September’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and other labour market indicators has already been delayed. The U.S. ISM Services PMI fell from 52.0 to 50.0 in September, indicating slowing growth momentum and increasing the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts. In the euro area, headline inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.2% y/y, which, on the contrary, points to a possible freeze in ECB rate adjustments.
💶 EUR/USD
The euro held steady last week. Weak U.S. data kept the dollar under pressure, with the pair trading in a narrow 1.1682-1.1778 range and closing at 1.1741. This week, market focus will shift to Eurozone retail sales, German industrial production, and the ECB minutes. A confident hold above 1.1700 supports a cautious bullish bias with potential toward 1.1920, while a break below support at 1.1650 carries risks of decline toward 1.1525-1.1550.
₿ BTC/USD
Over the past week, bitcoin gained nearly 12%, climbing from $110,847 to $124,009. The leading cryptocurrency came just short of updating its all-time high of $124,559. The rally was fuelled by the same factors supporting gold: liquidity concerns, a weaker dollar, and portfolio diversification amid uncertainty in the U.S. and global markets. A strong inflow into spot ETFs and a shift of institutional investors toward alternative assets were among the key drivers of the bullish momentum. On Saturday, bitcoin traded around $122,500. A decisive breakout above $124,000 could push the price further toward $137,000, while failure to hold above $117,000 risks a pullback to the $110,000 area.
🛢 Brent
Brent crude ended last week at $64.23 per barrel, continuing its decline amid weak demand and OPEC+ discussions weighing on sentiment. Key support lies in the $64.80–65.00 area, and if bears manage to keep the price below this level, it will turn from support into resistance, opening the way toward $62.50-63.00. However, it is not excluded that bulls may regain control and the price could again rise toward $69.00-70.00 within the cyclical swings of recent months.
🥇 XAU/USD
Gold extended its rally for the seventh consecutive week, peaking at $3,897 per ounce and closing Friday at $3,887. Demand is underpinned by safe-haven flows and lower U.S. yields. The $3,900 mark is seen as the next key threshold, and it is highly likely that bulls will make every effort to reach the psychologically important $4,000 level. Despite the medium-term outlook for further growth, traders remain cautious due to correction risks should the dollar strengthen. Strong U.S. data could drive the price down to $3,800 and potentially lower – into the $3,630-3,700 zone.
📌 Conclusion
At the start of the second week of October, EUR/USD remains steady with moderate upside risk while holding above 1.1700, gold stays near record levels with dip-buying interest intact, bitcoin trades just below its all-time high, and Brent crude remains under pressure.
As for key economic events, on Monday, October 6, the market focus will be on Eurozone retail sales data. On Wednesday, October 8, German industrial production figures will be released. On Thursday, October 9, investors await the publication of the ECB’s latest meeting minutes, while throughout the week the main drivers will remain developments around the U.S. government shutdown and anticipation of U.S. labour market data, which failed to appear last week.
