The World Cup is on, it’s sunny and it’s Friday. Don’t expect a lot of action in equities or in Forex. Still, markets have a lot going on in the background. Yesterday saw a profit warning from Daimler – highlighting the risk of a US-China-EU trade war. Volatility in oil prices caught up to the energy sector. Emerging market currencies staged a marginal recovery, but trading felt like profit taking. Mexico increased rates by 0.25% to 7.75%, a proactive response to extreme MXN weakness ahead of Presidential elections and increasing NAFTA tensions. The Swiss National Bank stayed defensively dovish, repeating that the CHF is highly valued, and the Forex market remains delicate. With the USD on the defensive, GBP gained as the Bank of England sounded hawkish as to an August rate hike.
By Peter Rosenstreich