Amidst all the noise, subdued inflation and solid global growth are good for selected emerging-market currencies: MXN, THB, INR, IDR and ZAR should be bought on the dips.
Trade-war fears eased on Chinese President Xi Jinping's conciliatory, optimistic remarks at the Boao Forum for Asia. Global stocks rebounded as US President Donald Trump acknowledged the remarks positively. But markets are still jittery: USD/RUB highlights this, clearing 64.20 in early trading. In general, forex markets remain choppy and difficult to read.
Today will see various announcements: UK manufacturing data, the US consumer price index and the US Federal Reserve’s minutes of its Open Market Committee. US CPI inflation is expected to rise, with the core rate jumping to 2.1%, keeping USD contained. The FOMC March minutes will give insight into the Fed’s choice of three or four rate hikes for 2018.
By Peter Rosenstreich