The EURCHF pair has reached its highest level since the floor was abandoned in January 2015. The pair has even reached 1.1620 CHF for one euro coin. The bullish move is mostly due because of the anticipation of the asset purchase program being reduced by the ECB in October. Bullish pressures are set to continue for the pair until then.
Major central banks (except the BoJ) are slowing moving towards further tightening and in particular balance sheet reduction. The demand for the euro currency is getting higher. However we remain suspicious about the euro strength within the medium–term.
For the time being, markets are buying the Eurozone decline in the unemployment rate, the fading threat of deflation, 1.5% y/y, and the continued growth. Anyway, we believe that all of this are on very fragile balance. European countries are sitting on massive debt and the current growth has only been obtained by massive injection of fresh cash. Any wise euro investors should be looking towards the Greek debt problem to be convinced that this won’t end well. Anyway the single currency is likely to appreciate against the Swiss franc within the medium-term.
By Yann Quelenn