EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 13.11 - 20.11: daily bearish breakdown with 1.0821 support

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.12 08:19

Weekly Outlook: 2016, November 13 - November 20 (based on the article)

GDP data from Japan and Germany, Mario Draghi’s speech, Inflation figure from the UK and the US, Employment data from the UK, Australia and the US, US Building Permits, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Janet Yellen’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee. These are the major events on forex calendar.

1. Japan GDP data: Sunday, 23:50. Japan’s growth in the third quarter is expected to remain at 0.2%.
2. Mario Draghi speaks: Monday, 15:00, ECB President Mario Draghi will speak in Rome and in Frankfurt. Market volatility is expected.
3. Eurozone German GDP: Tuesday, 7:00. German GDP is expected to rise 0.3% in the third quarter.
4. UK Inflation data: Tuesday, 9:30. UK inflation is expected to advance further by 1.1% in October.
5. US Retail sales: Tuesday, 13:30. Retail sales are expected to edge up by another 0.6% in October while core sales are expected to increase by 0.5%.
6. UK Employment data: Wednesday, 9:30. The number of unemployed is expected to rise by 1,900 this time.
7. US PPI: Wednesday, 13:30.  Producer prices are expected to rise by 0.3% in October.
8. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30.
9. Australian employment data: Thursday, 0:30. The employment market is expected to increase by 20,300 new jobs while the unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 5.7%.
10. US Building Permits: Thursday, 13:30. The number of permits for new private homes is expected to register a seasonally-adjusted 1.19 million units.
11. US inflation data: Thursday, 13:30. CPI is expected to gain 0.4% in October while the core CPI is forecasted to rise 0.2%.
12. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 13:30. Philly Fed manufacturing index is predicted to register 8.1 in November.
13. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of new jobless claims is expected to reach 257,000 this week.
14. Janet Yellen speaks: Thursday, 15:00. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the Joint Economic Committee, in Washington DC. She may provide clues regarding the Fed’s rate plans in light of the recent win of the republican candidate Donald Trump. Market volatility is expected.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.12 08:39

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2016, November 13 - November 20 (based on the article)

EUR/USD had a volatile week around the US elections and eventually closed lower. Speeches by Draghi, inflation, and GDP data stand. Will the euro continue lower?. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.

1. Industrial Production: Monday, 10:00. A drop of 0.9% is on the cards now.
2. Mario Draghi talks: Monday, 15:00. The President of the European Central Bank will speak in Rome, in his home country of Italy. Any comments about the future of the QE program will be closely watched.
3. German GDP: Tuesday, 7:00. Slightly slower growth is expected: 0.3%.
4. Italian GDP: Tuesday, 9:00. Economic output is expected to rise by 0.2%.
5. Flash GDP: Tuesday, 10:00.
6. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. Another rise is expected, up to 7.9 points, reflecting more optimism.
7. Trade Balance: Tuesday, 10:00. Thanks to German exports, the euro-zone enjoys a wide surplus. A small squeeze is on the cards for September: 22.3 billion after 23.3 billion in August.
8. CPI (final): Thursday, 10:00.
9. ECB Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 12:30. In the latest ECB meeting in October, the European Central Bank left all policy measures unchanged, but Draghi sounded slightly dovish.
10. German PPI: Friday, 7:00. A rise of 0.3% is expected to follow now.
11. Draghi speaks: Friday, 8:00 Draghi’s second appearance this week could be more meaningful, as he speaks in Frankfurt, where the headquarters of the ECB are located.
12. Current Account: Friday, 9:00. This is expected to grow from 29.7 billion to 31.3 billion this time.
13. Jens Weidmann talks: Friday, 10:30. The President of the German central bank, the Bundesbank, speaks in Frankfurt, in the same event as Draghi.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.14 16:50

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speaks and 16 pips range price movement

2016-11-14 15:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]

• past data is n/a
  
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = Speech at the Italian Treasury, in Rome.

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From Forex Crunch article: EUR/USD finds support only at 2016 lows – why and what’s next

• "The US dollar continues storming forward, and EUR/USD sees no mercy. The world’s No. 1 currency pair is trading at the lowest levels since early 2016. So far, it has reached 1.0728, above support at 1.0710. The pair did break below the low of 1.0825 seen in March. At that time, the ECB presented a lot of new measures but also said they were done for the time."
• "If 1.0710 breaks, we will be in areas where the pair spent little time. 1.0630 is a stepping stone on the way down. Stronger support awaits at 1.0520, the level the pair visited on another ECB rate event: the December 2015 meeting. And the last line in the sand belongs to 1.0460, last seen in March 2015, and the lowest level in well over a decade. Some even see an open door to parity Resistance awaits at 1.0820, 1.0960 and 1.10."

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EUR/USD M5: 16 pips range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speaks news event

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.15 09:01

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD : German Gross Domestic Product

2016-11-15 07:00 GMT | [EUR - GDP]

• past data is 0.4%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report:

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EUR/USD M5: 30 pips range price movement by German Gross Domestic Product news events

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USD/CAD M5: 25 pips range price movement by German Gross Domestic Product news events

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AUD/USD M5: 28 pips range price movement by German Gross Domestic Product news events

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.15 15:01

• past data is 1.0%
• forecast data is 0.6%
• actual data is 0.8% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From Market Watch article: U.S. retail sales post biggest back-to-back sales since 2014

"Retail sales jumped 0.8% last month after a revised 1% gain in September, the government said Tuesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast a seasonally adjusted 0.7% advance."

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EUR/USD M5: 30 pips range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events

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USD/CAD M5: 29 pips range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events

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GOLD (XAU/USD) M5: range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.16 14:59

• past data is 0.3%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is 0.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - PPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

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From official report:

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EUR/USD M5: 14 pips range price movement by Producer Price Index news events

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USD/CNH M5: 46 pips price movement by Producer Price Index news events

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NZD/USD M5: 17 pips range price movement by Producer Price Index news events

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.17 14:57

• past data is 0.3%
• forecast data is 0.4%
• actual data is 0.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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2016-11-17 13:30 GMT | [USD - Building Permits]

• past data is 1.23M
• forecast data is 1.19M
• actual data is 1.23M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Building Permits] = Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month.

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From official reports:

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EUR/USD M5: 38 pips range price movement by CPI and Building Permits news events

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S&P 500 M5: range price movement by CPI and Building Permits news events

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Dax Index M5: range price movement by CPI and Building Permits news events

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.19 08:09

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2016, November 20 - November 27 (based on the article)

1. Draghi talks: Monday, 16:00. The President of the ECB may hint about the highly anticipated December meeting of the Bank.
2. Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 15:00.
3. Flash PMIs: Wednesday: 8:00 for France, 8:30 for Germany and 9:00 for the euro-zone. For the whole euro-zone, manufacturing was ahead at 53.5 and services at 52.8 points, with 53.2 and 53.1 expected now.
4. ECB Financial Stability Review: Wednesday, 9:00. Twice a year, the European Central Bank assesses the stability of the financial sector.
5. Final German GDP: Thursday, 7:00.
6. German Ifo Business Climate: Thursday, 9:00. A score of 110.6 is forecast.
7. German GfK Consumer Climate: Thursday, 12:00. A small rise to 9.7 is on the cards.
8. Belgian NBB Business Climate: Thursday, 14:00. A small improvement to -1.5 is expected.