Press review - page 454

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Weekly Outlook: 2016, November 13 - November 20 (based on the article)

GDP data from Japan and Germany, Mario Draghi’s speech, Inflation figure from the UK and the US, Employment data from the UK, Australia and the US, US Building Permits, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Janet Yellen’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee. These are the major events on forex calendar.


  1. Japan GDP data: Sunday, 23:50. Japan’s growth in the third quarter is expected to remain at 0.2%.
  2. Mario Draghi speaks: Monday, 15:00, ECB President Mario Draghi will speak in Rome and in Frankfurt. Market volatility is expected.
  3. Eurozone German GDP: Tuesday, 7:00. German GDP is expected to rise 0.3% in the third quarter.
  4. UK Inflation data: Tuesday, 9:30. UK inflation is expected to advance further by 1.1% in October.
  5. US Retail sales: Tuesday, 13:30. Retail sales are expected to edge up by another 0.6% in October while core sales are expected to increase by 0.5%.
  6. UK Employment data: Wednesday, 9:30. The number of unemployed is expected to rise by 1,900 this time.
  7. US PPI: Wednesday, 13:30.  Producer prices are expected to rise by 0.3% in October.
  8. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30.
  9. Australian employment data: Thursday, 0:30. The employment market is expected to increase by 20,300 new jobs while the unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 5.7%.
  10. US Building Permits: Thursday, 13:30. The number of permits for new private homes is expected to register a seasonally-adjusted 1.19 million units.
  11. US inflation data: Thursday, 13:30. CPI is expected to gain 0.4% in October while the core CPI is forecasted to rise 0.2%.
  12. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 13:30. Philly Fed manufacturing index is predicted to register 8.1 in November.
  13. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of new jobless claims is expected to reach 257,000 this week.
  14. Janet Yellen speaks: Thursday, 15:00. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the Joint Economic Committee, in Washington DC. She may provide clues regarding the Fed’s rate plans in light of the recent win of the republican candidate Donald Trump. Market volatility is expected.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2016, November 13 - November 20 (based on the article)

EUR/USD had a volatile week around the US elections and eventually closed lower. Speeches by Draghi, inflation, and GDP data stand. Will the euro continue lower?. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.


  1. Industrial Production: Monday, 10:00. A drop of 0.9% is on the cards now.
  2. Mario Draghi talks: Monday, 15:00. The President of the European Central Bank will speak in Rome, in his home country of Italy. Any comments about the future of the QE program will be closely watched.
  3. German GDP: Tuesday, 7:00. Slightly slower growth is expected: 0.3%.
  4. Italian GDP: Tuesday, 9:00. Economic output is expected to rise by 0.2%.
  5. Flash GDP: Tuesday, 10:00.
  6. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. Another rise is expected, up to 7.9 points, reflecting more optimism.
  7. Trade Balance: Tuesday, 10:00. Thanks to German exports, the euro-zone enjoys a wide surplus. A small squeeze is on the cards for September: 22.3 billion after 23.3 billion in August.
  8. CPI (final): Thursday, 10:00.
  9. ECB Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 12:30. In the latest ECB meeting in October, the European Central Bank left all policy measures unchanged, but Draghi sounded slightly dovish.
  10. German PPI: Friday, 7:00. A rise of 0.3% is expected to follow now.
  11. Draghi speaks: Friday, 8:00 Draghi’s second appearance this week could be more meaningful, as he speaks in Frankfurt, where the headquarters of the ECB are located.
  12. Current Account: Friday, 9:00. This is expected to grow from 29.7 billion to 31.3 billion this time.
  13. Jens Weidmann talks: Friday, 10:30. The President of the German central bank, the Bundesbank, speaks in Frankfurt, in the same event as Draghi.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)


Dollar Index - "While the effectiveness of domestic policies may or may not be, we may see a more consistent bolster for the Dollar in the universal detriment to the United States’ largest trade partners through proposed trade policies. A resounding part of the Trump platform against the global rise of protectionism was the vow to renegotiation, scrape or withdrawal from global trade deals that were not perceived as beneficial to the US. That includes NAFTA and TPP as well as labeling China a ‘currency manipulator’ that it could impose tariffs on. This global withdrawal from globalization is detrimental for all long term, but in the short-term it hurts export-dependent nations and currencies more while the consumer countries (like the US) may enjoy a short-term boost. Should it immediately devolve into a trade war, no currency will win, but volatility will grow by leaps and bounds."

Weekly Trading Forecast: FX and Equity Markets Focus on US Election
Weekly Trading Forecast: FX and Equity Markets Focus on US Election
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
There is little doubt that the US Presidential Election next week is the global market’s top event risk. The implications for risk trends is clear with the longest slide for the benchmark S&P 500 in 36 years (9-day) through Friday. EUR/USD has been moving steadily higher, but it has nothing to do with improved European economic data, higher...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)


GBP/USD - "Data prints coming out of the U.S. economy may shake up GBP/USD as retail spending is projected to increase another 0.6% in October, while consumer prices are anticipated to pick up for the third consecutive month, but the slew of Fed speeches on tap for the week ahead may do little to boost the appeal of the greenback especially as the permanent-voting members appear to be in no rush to further normalize monetary policy. Even though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to be on course to implement a December rate-hike, Chair Janet Yellen may largely endorse a wait-and-see approach for 2017 as the central bank head is scheduled to appear in front of the Joint Economic Committee on November 17, and more of the same rhetoric may drag on interest-rate expectations as the committee continues to warn ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up but remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.’ With that said, market participants may pay increased attention to the Fed’s fresh projections coming out at the next quarterly policy meeting on December 14, and the dollar stands at risk of facing headwinds ahead of 2017 should central bank officials continue to cut the long-run interest rate forecast."

Weekly Trading Forecast: Markets Chart a Course as World Weighs Trump Effect
Weekly Trading Forecast: Markets Chart a Course as World Weighs Trump Effect
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
The markets closed out one of the most volatile weeks in years and the source was clear: the surprise election for Donald Trump. Will risk appetite hold for the US and spread the rest of the world? may stage a larger relief rally over the days ahead should the key developments coming out of the U.K. raise the outlook for inflation and dampen...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CAD (based on the article)


USD/CAD - "Some institutions have called the Donald Trump impending administration a new era because of his Fiscal Stimulus agenda aligned with a Republican Congress that will allow him to pass far more than he could have in a deadlocked in Congress. The importance of the new-era is what that could do for inflation in the United States, which has been seenat the long end of the UST Yield Curve. On Wednesday, the UST 10Yr yield had its largest intraday range, which was indicative of inflation concerns. When combining the Trump election with Brexit, there appears to be a democratic trend towards nationalism that could continue to feed the USD Bulls and US Treasury Bears. Continue to keep an eye on the price of Crude Oil because of the inability for Crude Oil to push higher as more trade pressures are placed on OPEC to come to an agreement to cut production."

Weekly Trading Forecast: Markets Chart a Course as World Weighs Trump Effect
Weekly Trading Forecast: Markets Chart a Course as World Weighs Trump Effect
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
The markets closed out one of the most volatile weeks in years and the source was clear: the surprise election for Donald Trump. Will risk appetite hold for the US and spread the rest of the world? may stage a larger relief rally over the days ahead should the key developments coming out of the U.K. raise the outlook for inflation and dampen...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)


AUD/USD - "The pricing in of this world view is likely to resume next week, sending the Aussie lower. A busy Fed-speak docket coupled with US PPI and CPI numbers may reinforce momentum if a repeat of recently hawkish rhetoric and further evidence of firming price pressures underscores the on-coming Fed vs. RBA divergence. Domestic jobs data may momentarily slow momentum but probably won’t be potent-enough to offset it."

Weekly Trading Forecast: Markets Chart a Course as World Weighs Trump Effect
Weekly Trading Forecast: Markets Chart a Course as World Weighs Trump Effect
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
The markets closed out one of the most volatile weeks in years and the source was clear: the surprise election for Donald Trump. Will risk appetite hold for the US and spread the rest of the world? may stage a larger relief rally over the days ahead should the key developments coming out of the U.K. raise the outlook for inflation and dampen...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for NZD/USD (based on the article)


NZD/USD - "Next week the release of Dairy prices on Tuesday could be one of the more compelling drivers on the Kiwi. Milk prices are often a leading driver of NZD price action, and given the brute unpredictability that this data point will often bring, a higher-than-expected read could bring strength back into the Kiwi-Dollar. Outside of Dairy prices, Retail sales are released on Monday afternoon, and consumer confidence and producer price numbers are released on Wednesday afternoon."

Weekly Trading Forecast: Markets Chart a Course as World Weighs Trump Effect
Weekly Trading Forecast: Markets Chart a Course as World Weighs Trump Effect
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
The markets closed out one of the most volatile weeks in years and the source was clear: the surprise election for Donald Trump. Will risk appetite hold for the US and spread the rest of the world? may stage a larger relief rally over the days ahead should the key developments coming out of the U.K. raise the outlook for inflation and dampen...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)


 

USD/CNH - "Event risks from home are expected to add volatility to Yuan rates as well. China’ foreign reverses, exports and CPI reads for October are the top indicators to keep an eye on. In September, China’s foreign reserves dropped -$18 billion to $3.166 trillion, the lowest level since May 2011. If the holdings continue to fall, China’s Central Bank is less likely to support the Yuan when it devalues against the Dollar as this will further burn foreign reserves. Also, China’s overseas shipments in Dollar terms unexpectedly shrank -10% in September. A weaker Yuan may have helped to ease the pressure on exporters: The Yuan lost -1.57% onshore and -1.58% offshore in October. In terms of the headline inflation, multiple Chinese financial institutions forecast that the CPI will rise back to above 2% in October. A higher CPI may reduce the odds of the PBOC introducing further easing measures, and thus, may support Yuan rates."

Weekly Trading Forecast: Markets Chart a Course as World Weighs Trump Effect
Weekly Trading Forecast: Markets Chart a Course as World Weighs Trump Effect
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
The markets closed out one of the most volatile weeks in years and the source was clear: the surprise election for Donald Trump. Will risk appetite hold for the US and spread the rest of the world? may stage a larger relief rally over the days ahead should the key developments coming out of the U.K. raise the outlook for inflation and dampen...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)


GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Looking ahead to next week traders will be lending a keen ear to a fresh batch of commentary from Fed Speakers as expectations for a December rate hike continue to take root. Fed Fund Futures have continued to climb post-election with markets now pricing an 84% chance the central bank will move on rates next month. With the stage now set for Janet Yellen & Co, traders will be eyeing key U.S. data prints next week with Advanced Retail Sales & the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on tap. All thing’s held constant (data in-line), look for gold to remain under pressure as rising asset prices & expectations for higher rates continue to curb demand for bullion holdings."

Weekly Trading Forecast: Markets Chart a Course as World Weighs Trump Effect
Weekly Trading Forecast: Markets Chart a Course as World Weighs Trump Effect
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
The markets closed out one of the most volatile weeks in years and the source was clear: the surprise election for Donald Trump. Will risk appetite hold for the US and spread the rest of the world? may stage a larger relief rally over the days ahead should the key developments coming out of the U.K. raise the outlook for inflation and dampen...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks and 34 pips range price movement

2016-11-14 01:00 GMT | [JPY - BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks]

[JPY - BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks] = Speech about Japan's economy and monetary policy at the business leaders meeting, in Nagoya.

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From gettyimages article: Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speech and News Conference

  • "Haruhiko Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), reacts as he speaks at a business leaders meeting in Nagoya, Aichi, Japan, on Monday, Nov. 14, 2016. Given that inflation has been lower than 2% for a long time, its necessary for the public to experience it above this level so that their expectations for inflation will rise, Kuroda said."

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USD/JPY M5: 34 pips range price movement by BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks news event