27 June 2016, 12:05
Vasilii Apostolidi

EUR/USD: Bearish: Room to extend lower but 1.0820 is a major support.

EUR broke several key supports last Friday and dropped to a low of 1.0905/10.

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The short-term rebound from the low appears to be corrective in nature and a break below 1.0905/10 could lead to further drop to the very strong support level of 1.0820/25 (low last seen in March). Resistance is at 1.1170 but only a move 1.1300 would indicate that an interim low is in place (key levels are far apart after the volatile move last Friday)

GBP/USD: Bearish: A move to 1.3000 would not be surprising.

While further GBP weakness would not be surprising, the record breaking drop last Friday is severely over-extended. That said, the 1.3225/30 low appears to be a tenuous support and a move to 1.3000 in the coming days would not be surprising. Resistance is at 1.3770 but only a move back above last Friday’s NY high of 1.3980 would indicate that a temporary low is in place

AUD/USD: Neutral: Expect choppy trading between 0.7305/0.7650.

AUD registered a range of 345 pips last Friday, the largest single day range since November 2011. This has clearly resulted in a mixed outlook and we prefer to hold a neutral view and expect further volatile trading that should be contained by 0.7305/0.7650.

NZD/USD: Neutral: In a broad 0.6975/0.7305 range.

The sudden expansion in range last Friday has resulted in a mixed outlook. Near term, we expect NZD to trade between the 0.6975/0.7305 range established last Friday. The price action over the few days should provide a better picture of where this pair is heading next.

USD/JPY: Neutral: In a broad 99.08/106.81 range.

USD registered a range of 99.08/106.81 or roughly 770 pips. This is the single largest daily range since October 1998. Near-term outlook is unclear after the extreme movement and we do not have a firm view except that trading is likely to be confined within the 99.08/106.81 range (which is not much of a help). Hopefully, the price action over the next few days could offer a better clarity of the outlook for USD.

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